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Remnants of ALLISON Advisory Number 22
 
Issued 21:00Z Jun 10, 2001
 
Advisory Selection
View advisory number:  52   51   50   49   48   47   46   45   44   43   42   41   40   39   38   37   36   35   34   33   32   31   30   29   28   
27   26   25   24   23   22   21   20   19   18   17   16   15   14   13   12   11   10   9   8   7   6   5   

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 22 FOR THE REMAINS OF T.D. "ALLISON" 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2001

THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX GYRE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION "ALLISON" IS LOCATED 60 MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST...NEAR 28.6N 93.1W...WHICH IS 80 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON
LA OR 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERMILLION BAY.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRACKING STEADILY TO THE EAST AT 6 MPH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
THIS TRACK SHOULD BEND MORE TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS AT THIS TIME....AND THE CENTER
MAY TRY REFORMING CLOSER TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
29.0N 91.7W LONGITUDE...BUT NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE COME IN TO
SUPPORT THIS CENTER. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED CROSS THE COAST INTO
THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH...AS
DEDUCED FROM BUOYS...OIL RIG REPORTS FROM 7R8 AND 3B6....AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA FROM GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.  THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB...OR 29.67 INCHES.  

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED NEAR POINT AU FER IN ST. MARY PARISH...AND MAMOU IN ST.
LANDRY PARISH...WITH MAXIMA OF 6 INCHES INDICATED. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AVERAGE AN ESTIMATED HALF INCH OF
RAIN SINCE 7 AM CST....WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF TWO INCHES IN SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW SATURATED GROUND IN THESE AREAS
TO BEGIN DRYING OUT.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES STORM TOTALS FOR THE EVENT BETWEEN 30-40
INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM LIBERTY COUNTY
WESTWARD TO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...AND IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES AROUND THE
MARSHES/SALT DOMES OF SOUTHERN VERMILLION AND ST. MARY PARISHES IN
LOUISIANA.  THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL FROM TEXAS...AS OF LAST NIGHT...WAS
35.67 INCHES AT GREENS BAYOU AT WEST MT. HOUSTON. 

WHERE DOES ALLISON STAND COMPARED TO OTHER TEXAS TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN HISTORY? ALLISON IS NOW THE THIRD WETTEST...IN POINT TOTAL RAINFALL
...  TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RECORDED HISTORY FOR THE LONE STAR
STATE....BEHIND CLAUDETTE OF JULY 1979 (45 INCHES IN ALVIN)...AND THE TRAGIC FLOOD EVENT
OF SEPTEMBER 1921 IN SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA (40 INCHES AT THRALL). THIS
RAINFALL EVENT IS SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE EPIC FLOODS ON THE
BRAZOS DURING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF JUNE 1899 (OVER 30 INCHES)....THE
MASSIVE FLOODS OF BEULAH IN SEPTEMBER 1967 (OVER 30 INCHES)...CHANTAL
IN AUGUST 1989 (OVER 30 INCHES) ...AMELIA'S SLOW SPIN DOWN IN THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT IN LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST 1978 (34 INCHES). 

AS A COINCIDENCE...ITS EFFECTS WERE SIMILAR TO ITS NAMESAKE (T.S.
ALLISON) OF LATE JUNE 1989 WHICH ALSO PRODUCED OVER 30 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA.  THE STORM NAME IT REPLACED ON THE ROTATING
HURRICANE LIST...ALICIA...LED TO A STORM TOTAL OF OVER TEN INCHES AT
GREENS BAYOU IN AUGUST 1983. AS THE HOUSTON/ GALVESTON OFFICE NOTED IN THEIR
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY BE HIGHER
TOTALS DISCOVERED AFTER THE FACT ONCE ALL THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
COOPERATIVE WEATHER SITES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COME IN DURING EARLY
JULY. ONLY THEN WILL IT BE KNOWN WHERE ALLISON FINALLY STANDS IN
TEXAS WEATHER HISTORY.
 
NO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOUISIANA OR TEXAS AT THIS
TIME. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT IN A SWATH FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  HOWEVER...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS...STREAMS AND BAYOUS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT CAN TAKE DAYS AFTER A RAIN EVENT
FOR PRECIPITATION TO DRAIN INTO AREA RIVERS...AND REACH THEIR PEAK. 
SEVERAL RIVERS HAVE ALREADY CRESTED WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND HAVE
BEGUN RECEDING...WHILE OTHERS ARE FORECASTED TO CREST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.


SELECTED SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDE:

LOUISIANA (THROUGH 1 PM CDT, IN INCHES)

SALT POINT.........................2.96
PATTERSON..........................0.97
NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION......0.48
LAFAYETTE..........................0.47
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT INT'L..........0.44



SELECTED SIX DAY STORM TOTALS FOR ALLISON:
THROUGH 7 AM CDT UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
GREENS BAYOU AT WEST MT HOUSTON...35.67 
HUNTING BAYOU AT I-10 (HOUSTON)...32.91 
FRIENDSWOOD TX....................25.98 
THIBODAUX LA......................23.96 
GREENS BAYOU AT US-59 (HOUSTON)...23.58 
SALT POINT LA.....................22.36 THROUGH 1 PM CDT
HOUSTON CLOVER FIELD TX...........21.41 THROUGH 1 PM CDT
HOUSTON HOBBY TX..................20.86 THROUGH 1 PM CDT
BATON ROUGE LA....................18.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT
HOUSTON/GALVESTON WFO.............18.38
WHITE OAK BAYOU AT ELLA TX........18.19
PONTHCATOULA LA...................17.66
CONROE TX.........................17.20
JACKSON LA........................17.11
RESERVE LA........................16.64
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL TX.......16.48
DENHAM SPRINGS LA.................16.22
PATTERSON LA......................16.19 THROUGH 1 PM CDT
BRUSLY 2 W LA.....................16.08

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

ROTH/ FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH