NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights: November 26, 2007

 

This meeting was led by Michael Brennan and attended by Joey Carr, John Ward, Keith Brill, Mark Iredell, Mary Hart, Geoff DiMego, Ed Danaher, Bill Bua, Zoltan Toth, Hendrik Tolman, and Christine Magee. Steve Weiss of SPC, Steven Silberberg of AWC and Mike Fiorino of TPC attended by remote teleconference.

 

1. NCO

 

John Ward listed several upcoming implementations scheduled prior to the CCS moratorium, which will be in effect from 18 December through 8 January.

 

        Implementation of the new multi-grid wave model for the NOAA Wavewatch III is scheduled for 27 November

        A minor GSI upgrade is scheduled for 4 December

        A NAEFS upgrade is scheduled for 4 December

        A SREF upgrade is scheduled for 11 December

        A Climate Forecast System (CFS) upgrade is schedule for 18 December

 

More details on these implementations can be found below in the respective EMC branch sections. A detailed list of all upcoming upgrades and implementations can be found here.

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

 

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch

 

Mark Iredell detailed the following upcoming global branch implementations:

  • A minor upgrade to the GSI scheduled for 4 December will incorporate format changes for JMA winds and SBUV-8 ozone data. No evaluation period will be undertaken for this change.
  • The upgrade to the CFS/GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) scheduled for 18 December will introduce two new members and use 1-day old initial conditions instead of 8-day old initial conditions for the model run. This will improve model performance in the short range (3-6 weeks). Also, deep water data assimilation in the GODAS will be improved.

 

Testing is underway on the next GFS/GSI implementation with code delivery expected early in 2008. This upgrade will include a first-order time interpolation (a step toward 4DVAR) and a radiation physics upgrade. Scores so far have been marginally better with the changes, and a potential implementation is scheduled for April.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch

 

Geoff DiMego reported that JIFs have been approved for the coming NAM upgrade that will include:

 

  • An increase in the domain size by 18% (in the north, west, and east directions)
  • An upgrade in the i,j,k WRF-NMM code
  • Introduction of gravity-wave drag and mountain blocking
  • A unified LSM (NOAH)
  • GSI upgrade to increase the resolution of GOES field-of-view data and the inclusion of some mesonet data
  • A slight modification of the positive definite advection scheme

 

A package of changes for the hi-res window (HRW) post-processing is being prepared to address the need for hourly output, processing of GEMPAK files hourly as the output becomes available, and the computation of updraft helicity. SPC has also requested that the status of the HRW be included on the NCO model status page: (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/).

 

The reinstatement of Fire Weather runs in 2008, originally requested by OCWWS is potentially on hold due to an inability to get the output into AWIPS OB9. Short term progress on these runs will depend on feedback from the regions on alternate ways to distribute the model output.

 

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System

 

Zoltan Toth noted that the upcoming NAEFS implementation scheduled for 4 December was approved and is on schedule. The upgrade will include the production of combined NCEP and CMC ensemble twice daily at 00 and 12 UTC. The NAEFS output will consist of 35 bias-corrected parameters. Once CMC begins running their ensemble four times per day, the NAEFS output frequency will increase accordingly. This upgrade will also include:

 

        A downscaling vector for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind (u and v components) and surface pressure the CONUS on the 5-km NDFD grid.

        Merged GFS and ensemble bias-corrected output, resulting in more weight being placed on the operational GFS during the first three days of the forecast period when it performs best. After three days, the ensemble will be weighted more heavily.

        Output of the ensemble mean, the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentile probabilities of the ensemble, the mode, the spread, and climate anomalies compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

 

2d. Short Range Ensemble Forecast System

 

The SREF upgrade scheduled for 11 December will include bias corrected output and an increase in the size of the RSM domain. After the implementation, SREF products in AWIPS will eventually transition to the bias corrected products.

 

Zoltan Toth commented that an upgrade for the SREF similar to the impending NAEFS implementation will be under development in the next 1218 months.

 

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

 

Hendrik Tolman reported that the implementation of the Multi-Grid Wave Model is set for 27 November. After the implementation, parallel runs will continue with an extension of the model grid to the North Pole so that the grid will be available in AWIPS 8.3 to address needs of Alaska Region. Initially, data will not be available poleward of 77.5N.

 

Great Lakes wave model code will be delivered to NCO on 18 December with a scheduled implementation for February 2008. This upgrade will use new software and provide additional output (e.g., wind wave and swell) but will not include major changes to the model itself. A parallel test running the model based off of winds from the NDFD is coming in the future.

 

A small change will be made to the HYCOM post processing so that NODC can properly archive all the model output.

 

A small upgrade to the RTOFS is planned to address the separation of the Gulf Stream from Cape Hatteras.


Upgrades to the wave model ensemble scheduled for implementation in June 2008 include:

 

  • An increase from 10 to 20 members
  • Increase in lead time to 7-8 days
  • Initial condition perturbations for swell
  • Bias corrected winds for oceanic forcing

 

Work is also underway to sync the NCEP wave ensemble forecast system with that of FNMOC.

 

3. FEEDBACK FROM OPERATIONAL CENTERS

 

SPC/AWC

 

Both Steve Weiss and Steven Silberberg suggested that a more standard set of products be made available for all parallel evaluations in the future. John Ward said this issue will be discussed at the NCEP Production Review meeting in early December.

 

4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held Monday, 31 December 2007, at 12:00 pm EST in Room 209 at EMC, with remote conference capability.