NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights: October 29, 2007
This meeting was led by Michael Brennan and attended by Joey Carr, Keith Brill, Mark Iredell, Mary Hart, Geoff DiMego, Joe Sienkiewicz, Ed Danaher, Zoltan Toth, Dave Plummer, and Vera Gerald. Steve Weiss and David Bright of SPC attended by remote teleconference.
Joey Carr outlined the following implementations planned by NCO:
1st Quarter of FY08
· A NAM-post upgrade is scheduled for 6 November
· Implementation of the new multi-grid wave model for the NOAA Wavewatch III is scheduled for 27 November
· A minor GSI upgrade is scheduled for 27 November
· A NAEFS upgrade is scheduled for 4 December
· A SREF upgrade is scheduled for 11 December
· A Climate Forecast System (CFS) upgrade is schedule for 18 December
2nd Quarter of FY08
More details on these implementations can be found below in the respective EMC branch sections. A detailed list of all upcoming upgrades and implementations can be found here.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch
Mark Iredell detailed the following upcoming global branch implementations:
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch
DiMego reported that the
upcoming MMB implementations include a
Another upcoming project is the reinstatement of Fire Weather runs in 2008 based on a request from OCWWS. These WRF runs will cover 26 predefined 8-km domains, similar to the Fire Weather runs from the Eta. A new capability with WRF is the ability to nest down to 2.67-km grid spacing near the fire center within each of the 8-km domains.
future upgrade will be development of downscaled NWP grids (DNG) from the
2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System
Zoltan Toth discussed the upcoming NAEFS implementation scheduled for 4 December. The upgrade will include the production of combined NCEP and CMC ensemble for the first time, initially twice a day after receipt of CMC ensemble output. The NAEFS output will consist of 35 bias-corrected parameters. Once CMC begins running their ensemble four times per day, the NAEFS output frequency will increase accordingly. This upgrade will also include:
· A downscaling vector for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind (u and v components) and surface pressure the CONUS on the 5-km NDFD grid spacing.
· Merged GFS and ensemble bias-corrected output, resulting in more weight being placed on the operational GFS during the first three days of the forecast period when it performs best. After three days, the ensemble will be weighted more heavily.
· Output of the ensemble mean, the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentile probabilities of the ensemble, the mode, the spread, and climate anomalies compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.
· This package is currently in parallel processing through 23 November and datasets are currently available on NCOSRV and through ftpprd.
Geoff DiMego reported on the SREF upgrade scheduled for 11 December. This upgrade will include bias corrected output and an increase in the size of the RSM domain. These parallel datasets are currently available on NCOSRV and through ftpprd. After the implementation, SREF products in AWIPS will eventually transition to the bias corrected products.
2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Gerald reported that the
Upgrades to the wave model ensemble are schedule for implementation in June 2008, including:
3. Feedback from operational centers
David Bright of SPC asked for information on the parameter identifications for new aviation products in the SREF. Geoff DiMego and Joey Carr replied that the issue could be related to the use of different GEMPAK tables for conversion from grib format.
A summary of the parameters and units from various GEMPAK tables can be found at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/on388/table2.html
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held Monday, 26 November 2007, at 12:00 pm EST in Room 209 at EMC, with remote conference capability.