NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: October 25, 2010
This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Geoff DiMego (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Chad Carry (EMC); Vera Gerald; Mary Hart (EMC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Todd Kimberlain (NHC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit (AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC); Andy Dean (SPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Bill Ward (PR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), and Brian Miretzky (ER); Ken Smith (AFWA)
1. NCO (Becky Cosgrove)
Multi-Grid Hurricane Wave Model.
Implementation is scheduled for November 2. The delivery time of the existing products will be delayed by approximately 30 minutes due to the significant increase in model resolution. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-44wave_modelaab.htm)
The NCO parallel for downscaling NAEFS sensible weather elements for Alaska has begun, for a planned implementation of November 30th. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-50naefs.htm)
Hawaii Gridded MOS
Schedule implementation of the 2.5 km Gridded MOS† is set for November 9th. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-27gmos_aaa.txt)
Software upgrades will result in format changes to NCEP BUFR products. In particular:
1. The identification section of each BUFR message will indicate the use of version 13 of the WMO Master Table. NCEP BUFR products currently use version 12.
2. An additional empty (zero subset) BUFR message will now be included within all files that contain BUFR table messages. These empty messages are recognizable as having a data category value of 11 within the identification section of the message.
The new BUFR format files can be ingested AWIPS.
More details available in the TIN. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-48bufraaa.htm)
Expansion of the operational ozone prediction products to add maximum 1 hour average and maximum 8 hour average ozone for the first day of prediction for CONUS is expected December 21st. More details available in the TIN (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-49ozone.htm)
FNMOC's Global Ensemble is scheduled to be added to the NAEFS system January 11, 2011. This will increase the number of members to 63. Additional bias-corrected elements (all upper level) will be added to NAEFS. An additional 28 elements will be added from the CMC ensemble. More details available in the TIN (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-50naefs.htm).
For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
Climate Forecast System v2.0
A major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS v2.0) is expected January 18th, 2011. The upgrade includes resolution changes, assimilation changes, atmospheric and ocean model changes, addition of sea-ice and land modeling, coupling, and other significant changes.
The major upgrade to the GFS in August 2010 introduced three biases:
-2 m temp warm bias
-cold bias in the stratosphere
-low wind bias
Corrective changes are expected to be implemented in late February 2011.
A resolution increase, use of a semi-lagrangian model formulation, and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12.
Updates to the datatypes are expected to be made in February 2011.
Resolution improvements and physics changes are expected in the summer 2011 timeframe. Resolution increases from T190L28 to T254L42. The physics will be updated to be consistent with the current operational GFS.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
High Resolution Window Runs
major upgrade to the High Resolution Window Runs is planned for March
2011.† Plans include upgrading the WRF
code version (from v2.2 to v3.2) and adding a twice-per-day (00z & 12z) run
Q3FY2011 major implementation will transition the WRF-based NMM to a NEMS-based
NMM-B.† NEMS = NOAA Environmental
Modeling System which is, in turn, based on the basic principles of ESMF (Earth
System Modeling Framework).† NMMB =
Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B-Grid where multiscale comes from the
fact the NMMB can be run globally or regionally and, with telescoping nests, it
can run with synoptic scale, mesoscale to stormscale grid-spacing. This
transition allows the long-awaited establishment of multiple internal nests: 4
km over CONUS, 6 km over
A major upgrade to SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB. †Membership will remain at 21 by having 7 members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.
Initial data from †the hybrid ensemble approach of Jun (2004) (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/hybrid_50thNWP.pdf) applied to the high-res window runs is available to NCEP Service Centers. This involves adding the forecast perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the Hi-res window NMM and ARW forecasts.
is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid
Refresh will replace the RUC and remain an hourly updated system with 13 km
resolution run to 18 hours. The prediction model will change from RUC to
WRF-ARW, the analysis will change from RUC/3DVAR to NCEPís GSI (same as is used
in GFS/GDAS and NAM/NDAS) and the domain will increase to cover most of
SPC and EMC collaborating to provide CAPE and CIN calculations using virtual temperature. These will be new elements, in addition to the historical CAPE and CIN calculations using the sensible temperature.
2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)
See previous item on multi-grid hurricane wave model.
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
Exploring using the new Vaisala GLD-360 lightning data to generate thunderstorm MOS guidance for the OCONUS.
Working with HPC and NCO to test prototype Day 8-10 MOS guidance.
EMC Ė The annual NCEP Model Suite Review will be held Dec 7-9 at the WWB. As in the past, activities for the regions are expected the morning of the 9th.
4. Given the upcoming NCEP Model Suite Review December 7-9, the next scheduled Synergy Meeting will be deferred until Monday, January 31, 2011.