EMC Synergy Meeting Highlights August 29, 2005

 

This meeting was led by Bill Bua, David Michaud, Mary Hart, Steve Lord, Zoltan Toth, Dan Pawlick, Shawna Coakley, Reggie Ready, and Joey Carr.

 

1. CCS

Dave Michaud reported that NCO is still working on disk storage for blue. NCO is on track for gpfs installation in a week or two. They will need a week of testing before the disk is available to users. For the white IBM computer, extra disk storage will be tested during the month of September, for availability in October.

 

Implementations are wrapping up for the fiscal year. These include:

 

       Global ensemble implementation extending T126 resolution to 384 hrs, with 6 hourly output, which was implemented in mid-August

       The new RTG-SST analysis

       The extratropical cyclone tracker

       The implementation of some short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) changes (for Wednesday, 31 August 2005), including

o      Extension of the forecast to 87 hrs., to match the NAM, and

o      Additional post processed products

       The new 3x air quality model, also scheduled for Wednesday, 31 August 2005.

       HYCOM ocean model, estimated for Oct 2005

o      Still working on quality of product, with good progress being made.

       For the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC):

o      Wave steepness, to be incorporated into files for OPC in next two weeks.

o      Wave ensemble mean/spread and probability graphics, which are now available on CCS. A notice will be sent out so that products can be evaluated.

 

The TOC moratorium continues thru Feb 06. We currently have issues getting products to the field that had become available starting at the beginning of August. Products are now 30-60 min late getting out every day. NCEP and TOC are working on this timing problem, but that is taking time away from the work that was to be completed during the moratorium. As a result, the moratorium on new products may slip into March 2006.

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

 

2a. Global Modeling Branch:

Parallels being tested include data assimilation changes (addition of NOAA 18 data, better assimilation of AIRS data). GSI also being worked on, but is not ready for outside assessment.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB):

Geoff DiMego reported that the MMB is working to resolve differences between the WRF/NMM and NAM (a cold bias). In particular, they are working to isolate the source of this cold bias. There are still problems with the amount of time it takes to run the WRF/NMM, and IBM is looking into this. Geoff noted that the WRF/NMM cycled system is using GSI, with some positive results for tropical vortex forecasting. No relocation of tropical systems for initial state is being done yet. In the data assimilation realm, Level 2 radial winds are almost ready for incorporation into the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS); testing now is going on without QC.

 

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System:

Zoltan Toth reported on the implementation of the new MREF two weeks ago (see NCO above). The MREF did very well w/Katrina. It got the New Orleans area landfall about 3 days prior to its occurrence. Future Plans: changes to system later this year or early 2006.

 

On the combined NCEP/Canadian North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS): NCEP/EMC is looking into doubling the number of NCEP members per cycle to 20. Additionally, they are checking into some changes to the structure of output, including moving to GRIB2 to conserve disk space. There may be some problems with having sufficient CPU time for doubling of membership per cycle; stay tuned. Some initial testing is to be done on the Ensemble Transform technique for determining optimal initial condition perturbations.

 

NAEFS: Merging of the NCEP and Canadian ensembles is on schedule, but the TOC moratorium may delay implementation. Arrangements will be made if there is a problem with TOC to deal with schedule.

 

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System:

Changes to be implemented this week will not affect SREF forecast quality but will improve its usefulness. These include the extension of forecast time to 87 hrs, and some post processing product changes. Six new members using the WRF model structure are to be added in October 2005. These are running now experimentally. There is a control with a bred perturbation pair for a WRF version with ARW/Eulerian Mass (EM) and NCAR physics, the other with NMM with NCEP physics. Both have Ferrier microphysics.

 

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB):

No report other than what is discussed in NCO.

 

3. Input to EMC and NCO

None to report.

 

4. The next meeting will be held Monday Sept. 26, 2005 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.