NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights: August 25, 2008
This meeting was led by Mike Brennan and attended by Ken Campena, Geoff DiMego, Shawna Cokley, Dan Starosta, Bill Bua, Joe Sienkiewicz, Keith Brill, and Yuejian Zhu. Stephen Jascourt of UCAR/COMET, Steve Silberberg of AWC, David Bright of SPC, Rusty Billingsley of Southern Region, and Jeff Waldstreicher of Eastern Region attended by remote teleconference.
Dan Starosta of TOC was introduced. He will serve as the acting head of the Production Management Branch for the next few months.
Shawna Cokley of NCO reported on several upcoming implementations:
· A minor GEFS implementation will occur after the Critical Weather Day (CWD) is lifted
evaluation of the RTMA for
· A RUC implementation is scheduled for early October
· A SREF implementation has been pushed back to late October with a parallel beginning in September
· Minor changes to the GSI are scheduled to be implemented in the next couple of weeks
Shawna noted that the usual December “holiday” change moratorium will last through April 2009 due to the implementation of the new supercomputer.
A detailed list of all upcoming major upgrades and implementations can be found here.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch
A new upgrade package for the GFS is tentatively scheduled for implementation in April 2009. This package contains changes that were included in the previous GFS upgrade that was not implemented as well as coupling with an ocean model (GFDL Modular Ocean Model version 4, or MOM4). This package also includes the new GSI that is awaiting implementation.
EMC is looking for early feedback from HPC and OPC on these changes in October, particularly for the retrospective covering the spring 2008 period when the package tested previously performed poorly.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch
DiMego said that the evaluation of the RTMA for
will be delivering code changes for the
FY09, no further upgrades will be made to the
2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System
Yuejian Zhu reported on several upcoming changes to the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS):
A GEFS upgrade is scheduled to be delivered to NCO in early September and includes the following changes:
Also, there is a plan to increase the number of variables exchanged between NCEP and CMC for the NAEFS to 78 from the current 52. This will require a 75-day notice of change because it will affect the pgrb_a files.
is underway to finalize the downscaling of NAEFS output for
A 1-year evaluation period of the FNMOC ensemble system is underway for possible inclusion in the NAEFS. This evaluation is being hindered by transfer problems between FNMOC and NCEP. If the evaluation is positive, an additional year will be taken to implement the FNMOC ensembles into the NAEFS.
An analogous 2-year effort to evaluate and implement the ECMWF ensembles into the NAEFS is planned. However, there are data processing problems with the 00 UTC ensemble cycle that must be resolved first.
Geoff DiMego reported that last minute changes to the SREF implementation resulted in code and script changes that are currently being worked on, but will delay the parallel evaluation and implementation. These changes include hourly output through forecast hour 39 at the request of AWC and SPC.
2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
3. FEEDBACK FROM OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
Mike Brennan voiced concerns about the potential
large number of back-to-back or potentially overlapping parallel evaluations
coming up, including the SREF,
Steven Silberberg re-iterated the above concerns, noting that AWC would also participate in the evaluation of the RUC as well. He also mentioned data volume issues on their end, due to the large amount of hourly RUC data they receive in various formats (GEMPAK, grib, and grib2) for in house use and for product generation for the FAA.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held Monday, September 29, 2008, at 12:00 pm EDT in Room 209 at EMC, with remote conference capability.