NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: July 25, 2011

 

This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC), and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO), Joey Carr (NCO), John Ward(EMC), Geoff DiMego(EMC), Eric Rogers(EMC), Hendrik Tolman (EMC), Suranjana Saha (EMC), Jamese Sims (EMC), Mary Hart (EMC), Steve Silberberg (AWC), Andy Dean (SPC), Joe Sienkowitz (OPC), Keith Brill (HPC), Andy Edman (WR), Chris Smallcomb (WR), Dave Radell (ER), Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), Pete Browning (CR), Phil Shafer (MDL), and Frank Aikman (NOS)

 

1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

 

New NAM

 

The parallel NAM evaluation has been stopped due to downstream impacts on the Alaska RTMA (Smart Init dictates first guess) and Downscaled Numerical Guidance. NCO and EMC are working to restart the 30 day parallel soon.

 

Several substaintial changes are being made, and are documented at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-16nam_changes.htm

See also below.

 

Climatologicaly Calibrated Precipitation Analysis

New 3-hourly output will be available August 23.

 

FNMOC Wave

Starting to work on implementation of FNMOC Wave model.

 

SBN Upgrade

The Satellite Broadcast Network has been expanded. However, the implementation of new datasets has been delayed.

-Expanded RUC (TBD- likely September): Hourly 13 km RUC out to 18 h (currently 12 h). See: http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin11-19ruc.htm

-HiRes Window (TBD- likely September): Select fields available from ARW and NMM cores, east, west, Alaska, and Puerto Rico domains. See:

http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin11-21hires.htm

-NAM Nest (TBD): 2.5 km resolution sensible weather elements to 60 hours

 

 

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)

 

Data Assimilation

The next major upgrade to the GFS will include a new hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter/GSI assimilation (DA) system, perhaps with ocean coupling to unify the DA system with the Global CFS. Initial results are promising. The implementation is currently planned for Q3 of FY12. A briefing to the synergy group on the hybrid system is planned for the September or October call.

 

New Supercomputer Moritorium

There will be a Moratorium on implementations for testing and installation of the new computer in roughly a year.

 

 

2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEFS)

 

The GEFS increase in resolution is planned now for either the 1st quarter of FY2012. The implementation is at risk of being delayed due to limited computing resources. The resolution is expected to increase from T190 to T254.

 

2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

 

NAM

 

The NMM-B parallel is expected to restart soon. Full details of the substantial changes are provided in the TIN:

 

The changes can be considered as three aspects:

-Change in model core. NMM-B is non-hydrostatic and multiscale (from global to mesoscales), with computations on the Arakawa B (changed from E) grid, and is in a NOAA Environmental Model System (NEMS) environment.

-Nesting. There will be 4-km nests over the CONUS, a 6-km nest over Alaska, and 3-km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. These data are distributed via ftp and through the Downscaled NWP Guidance (DNG) slot on the SBN.

-On-demand Fire Weather run: 1 km, relocatable. Requests coordinated through NCEP SDM. The Fire Weather Nest grids are expected to be distributed to the Unidata CONDUIT Server, which is accessible by the field offices.

 

More information and results can be found here (http://www2.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/impDoc.html) under "Implementation Briefing" in last column of the NAM 3.0 row; and under the EMC home page (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/) under "NAM Upgrade" on the right, click "Description of Changes".

 

Rapid Refresh (RR) Replacement of RUC

Running reliability. Next in line for implementation scheduling behind the NAM.

 

RTMA Upgrade

An implementation is ready and awaiting scheduling. The implementation includes:

            -expanded domain to cover the Canadian portion of the NWRFC area

            -~3 km resolution for mainland Alaska and 1.5 km for Juneau area

-GSI/2D Var improvements for CONUS domain (Guam & Puerto Rico completed)

-Improve winds over lakes and oceans.

 

SREF

A significant upgrade of the SREF is planned for FY12Q1. The upgrade include resolution improvements (from 32 km to ~22 km), elimination of Eta and RSM, addition of the NMMB, and a diverse initial condition perturbation strategy using a hybrid Breeding and Ensemble Transform method, as well as analyses from GDAS, NDAS, and Rapid Refresh. Additional post-processing enhancements are also expected. The scope of the project is at risk due to limited computing resources. Resolution improvements may need to be sacrificed.

 

 

 

2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Bob Grumbine)

 

FNMOC

Wave ensemble implementation proceeding and will be implemented FY11Q4. 

 

Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

Parallel has been running successfully. Expected to be implemented by the end of the Fiscal Year. Had to cut from an 8 day forecast to a 6 day forecast to allow expanded GEFS. The data will be distributed via NOMADS.

 

Multi-grid global and hurricane wave model

Spectral output resolution increase is on is still on schedule for FY12Q1. A parallel is expected to begin soon. The related TIN can be found at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-10wave.htm

 

Real Time Global Sea Surface Temperature -- RTGSST

High resolution improvements, using AMSRE and NOAA-19, will be implemented imminently by NCO (10-14 day parallel). 



3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Frank Aikman)

 

The Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) and the Columbia River & Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) are both scheduled for operational implementation In the second quarter of FY2012 (March).

 

Also working on extratropical storm surge and tide model.

 

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Phil Shafer)

 

Gridded LAMP: Improvements expected to be implemented in September, 2011 for temperature, dewpoint, clouds, and visibility. running in parallel - on track to go operational in Q4.

 

GFS-based HRMOS QPF

Will run in parallel for 60 days. To be scheduled.

 

2.5 km CONUS MOS

Will run in parallel for 30 days. To be scheduled

 

NAM MOS: Testing with the ongoing parallel 12 km NAM shows a cooler and drier bias. MDL is refreshing the correlations for the NAM MOS.

 

GFS MOS: The GFS bug fix implementation negatively impacted MOS winds in high elevations. The winds are now too strong. MDL is investigating short sample and bias correction for MOS winds and temperatures

 

 

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

OPC Looking at extratropical surge and tides model.

Also aware NAVY NCOM (1 km) model being relocated to southern New England Coast

 

Eastern Region Interested in Downscaled Numerical Guidance webpage for evaluation.

 

Pacific Region Hosting Pacific Islands Workshop this month.

 

5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, August 29, 2011 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.