NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 24, 2010

 

This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Jordan Alpert (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Eugene Petrescu (AR); Andy Dean (SPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Ed Danaher (HPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Bob Ballard (WFO HFO); Andy Edman (WR); Dave Myrick (WR); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Dave Radell (ER); and Brian Miretzky (ER)

 

1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

 

GFS

The GFS update will occur no earlier than July 13. Issues with post processing and product generation are being resolved. Once resolved, a 30 day NCO parallel evaluation will begin. The TIN will be reissued once schedule details emerge. The previous TIN is found at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-15gfs.txt

 

Changes to the GFS MOS BURF to properly pack opaque sky cover categorical guidance will occur either concurrent with the GFS upgrade, or shortly after.

 

Global Multi-grid Wave Model

Implementation occured May 11, 2010. Minor bug fixes were implemented May 24.

 

HWRF

RFCs have been submitted for changes in the HWRF. These changes include HWRF being coupled with the POM (Princetons Ocean Model). The HWRF implementation is expected June 1, 2010.

 

GFDL

Changes involve modifying the way the model removes the global vortex in its initialization procedure. Implementation has not yet been scheduled.

 

Air Quality

Air Quality products for Alaska are now being run in parallel. Implementation is planned for early Fall.

 

Hysplit Dust

The hysplit dust model was moved into production on May 18. Output is going to an experimental server in Silver Spring. The output location is expected to be transitioned to an operational area sometime in late Q4.

 

 

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan Alpert)

 

GFS

Working with NCO to resolve post-processing and product generation issues associated with the parallel GFS upgrade.

 

EMC has a web page which compares real-time forecasts between the operational GFS and the parallel GFS is at:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/    (selected from "GFS Weather Fcst Maps" on the left panel). Note that these web comparisons are only available for the 00Z run.

 

NAEFS

Plans are continuing to add the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) ensemble to NAEFS. The addition is tentatively planed for Q1 of 2011.

 

Pacific Region Guidance

Codes have been submitted to NCO for the downscaled numerical guidance (DNG) from the native GFS data for Guam and Hawaii, however additional code and documentation refinement will be necessary. The DNG will help support RTMA for Guam. No implementation date has been scheduled. A 75-day notice will be required for the Guam DNG to be distributed over the SBN, so SBN dissemination may lag implementation.

 

Climate Forecast System

Planning and testing for a major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS 2.0) is ongoing. Initial plans are for a November implementation.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff Dimego)

 

SREF

Select post-processed variables primarily related to aviation are expected to be added in Q4FY10.

A upgrade is being planned for FY11 which replaces the remaining Eta and RSM members with NEMS-NMM-B members. This upgrade would also increase resolution to ~22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach.  The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed. 

RTMA

Established a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version, which is being evaluated by ER and WR. RFCs have been submitted for operational implementation, which is targeted for Q4 of FY10. This implementation will also update the QC station lists submitted by the regions. 

 

NAM

The next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over the CONUS, a 6 km nest over Alaska, and 3 km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. An internal EMC parallel has been running for several weeks.

 

High Resolution Window Runs

FY10 plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions). The newer WRF versions for both NMM and ARW use a more conservative advection scheme which has the effect of reducing QPF bias. The run over Guam would replace the current RSM runs over Guam and Hawaii.

 

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)

Nothing to report.

 

3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

3a. MDL (No report)

 

3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

HPC Conducting an in-house QPF experiment focused on operational high-res models during June. Will evaluate the 4 km EMC parallel run of the NMM-B as part of the activities.

 

SR All coastal WFOs have installed the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) local wave model and are now tuning their model domains. The local SWAN models will use the global wave watch model as boundary conditions.

 

Also, SR is supporting activities associated with the Deep Water Horizon oil spill.

 

4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 3:00 pm EDT on Monday, June 28, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.