NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 23, 2011
This meeting was led by Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee, Becky Cosgrove, Joey Carr and Kelly Kampisty (NCO); John Ward, Eric Rogers, Hendrik Tolman, and Mary Hart (EMC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Andy Dean (SPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Dave Radell, Jeff Waldstreicher, and Brian Meiretzky (ER); Bernard Meisner and Melissa Kreller (SR); and Aijun Zhang (NOS)
1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)
The GFDL hurricane model update was successfully implemented on 19 May 2011 and the hurricane WRF is expected to be implemented tomorrow, 24 May 2011 barring critical weather.
NAEFS is also being updated tomorrow, but only to accepted bias-corrected files from Met. Service of Canada; NCEP had previously done the bias-correction.
An e-mail to product evaluation mailing list will be issued today regarding the new NAM implementation currently scheduled for 12 July 2011. An e-mail had been issued about a month previous to today to the operating centers, asking what data was wanted from the NAM nested grid runs. The TIN for this implementation can be found at:
New CFS Output Format
Finally, an update Climate Forecast System (CFS) is currently scheduled to be implemented on 5 July 2011. The model will not be changed, but output data will be written to a 1760 x 880 Gaussian grid (approximately 27-km equivalent grid point resolution). The TIN for this implementation can be found at:
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
The new Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system for the GFS went in on 9 May 2011. The next major upgrade to the GFS will include a new hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter/3-D VAR data assimilation (DA) system, perhaps with ocean coupling to unify the DA system with the Global CFS.
2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEFS)
The GEFS increase in resolution is planned now for either the 4th quarter of FY2011 or the 1st quarter of FY2012. Details will be forthcoming at a future meeting and in a TIN to be posted on the NCO/PMB web page.
2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Eric Rogers)
The NMM-B implementation is approximately on schedule for 12 July 2011. NMM-B is non-hydrostatic and multiscale (from global to mesoscales), with computations on the Arakawa B (changed from E) grid. Timing tests are currently being performed to determine the final configuration of the NMM-B. A production parallel must start by the week of 6 June for the 12 July 2011 not to be delayed.
There will be 4-km nests over the CONUS, a 6-km nest over Alaska, and 3-km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. The CONUS nests may not be available to replace the NAM-DNG grids in time for the July 2011 implementation, but would be included in a subsequent model upgrade. The AK, PR, and HI nests would be available, however.
Rapid Refresh (RR) Replacement of RUC
Code changes will be sent to NCO at the beginning of June. NCO will need resources to work on the implementation.
2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)
The global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) parallel has been running successfully, though some computer resources may need to be “jiggled” so that the NMM-B can fit its forecasts into the high-performance computer.
The multi-grid global and hurricane wave model spectral output resolution increase is on is still on schedule. The related TIN can be found at:
This implementation is testing a new implementation process. In the first quarter of FY2012, a major physics upgrade to the wave model will take place, which will be a major test of this implementation redesign.
Support continues to be provided for Japan related to the Fukushima Nuclear Plant and transport and dispersion of radionuclides.
3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Aijun Zhang)
Regional Ocean Modeling System (surge model) implementations in Chesapeake, Delaware, and Tampa Bays were successful. In the second quarter of FY2012, Gulf of Mexico and Columbia River implementations are scheduled. Related to this, he asked if 3-hourly forecasts from the global model could be provided to the NOS so more frequent boundary conditions could be made available for these bay models. The NOS will contact MMAB to find a way to obtain these data files.
4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
No report, but see Southern Region below.
The only feedback, other than thanks for EMC continuing its hard work on model implementations, was from NWS Southern Region. There appears to be a problem with GFS MOS winds for Albuquerque, NM; they are appearing to be getting forecast at twice the velocity of the verification observations. GCWMB chief John Ward said he has heard from other offices about this problem as well, and that MDL is aware of the problem and investigating for a cause and solution.
5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, June 27, 2011 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.