NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: February 24, 2014

 

This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by Keith Brill (WPC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Vera Gerald, Hendrik Tolman, DaNa Carlis, Stephen Barry, Geoff DiMego, John Derber, Yuejian Zhu, and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Steve Weiss, and Israel Jirak (SPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Ben Schwedler, and Steve Silberberg (AWC); Brian Miretzky (ER); Jeff Craven (CR); Andy Edman (WR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Becky Baltes; Alex Tardy (WFO SGX)

 

1.                                          NOTES FROM NCO (Becky Cosgrove)

 

-       NCO is working to remove obsolete datasets, starting with the GFS. Thanks to the regions that have provided feedback. Public information statement is out on GFS product removal. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/pns14gfs_legacy_removal.htm

-       The intention is to remove products from other models, including the mesoscale and marine models, but that will come in future announcements.

-       An ongoing project is deciding what HRRR and new GFS fields to disseminate.

-       RAPv2 was implemented on February 25.

-       RTOFS tracer will be discontinued on March 4.

-       SREF evaluation is ongoing; implementation planned for March 26.

-       LAMP convection and GMOS will be updated on March 26.

-       SF Bay evaluation will be restarted due a salinity issue.

-       NAEFS implementation is scheduled for March 27; this is post-processing only. No model changes.

-       Work on the high-res windows (HIRESW) has begun; implementation date TBD.

 

2.              NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber)

 

-       The new t1534 GFS is running now after a restart to fix a few issues, including divergence damping near the model top.

-          New GFS results are generally positive. On track for Q4.

-       New satellite data near ice may be the cause of positive results in the Southern Hemisphere.

-       The next GFS implementation (after t1534) will be the first NEMS implementation. EMC would like to hear from users whether spectral coefficients or Gaussian grids are preferred, and EMC may get rid of some old output.

-       In later implementations, EMC would like to go to 4D hybrid, instead of 3D hybrid, and also plans some small physics and tuning changes.

-       Looking ahead to 2016, expect an increase in vertical resolution and more data for assimilation, including cloudy radiances.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

 

-       The new SREF is arriving early, but that will not continue. Expect the same arrival times for data.

-       The high-res windows (HRWs) are being upgraded to the newest version of WRF, resolution is going to 3km, and the NMM-B will replace the NMM core. Output will remain as an east/west domain, and grids will arrive a little later than current grids.

-       HRW and HWRF should both fit for 2014; no preemption issues in 2014.

-       NAM will be up next, and upgrade will include physics, tunings, digital filter, cloud analysis and assimilation, and hybrid 3DVar GSI. Plan is to remove some legacy NAM grids, and future implementations may be hourly to fit with the hourly-updating ensemble vision.

-       RTMA/URMA has been implemented and expanded slightly to the west. A user has requested an expansion to cover the Gulf of Mexico.

-       The next SREF will include 21 members, all ARW and NMM-B. Lack of ARW spread will be addressed.

-       The HRRR is proving difficult to fit in the allocated supercomputer slot. Among other options (e.g., IBM software engineering work), it may become necessary to cut the forecast time from 15hrs to 12hrs.

 

HRRR Discussion:  Some meeting participants expressed concern that such a high-priority system may be scaled back (F15h to F12h). Why not scale back other parts of the production suite to make room? EMC explained that because the HRRR runs every hour, itís not simple to make room. Also, all stakeholders must be involved in such decisions. One participant asked whether EMC would consider proposals on how to modify the production suite. If not, what is the decision-making process to allocate space on the production suite? How do stakeholders feed into the process? EMC noted that allocating space on the production suite is a difficult task. The group decided to elevate the issue to the EMC director, who has been informed of some participantsí questions about how stakeholders can identify priorities, understand the decision-making process, and influence the production suite.  The EMC director has been informed of the discussion.

 

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)

 

-       Itís tough to fit all of the wave ensemble upgrades onto the machine. The slot is shrinking, with GEFS and HWRF taking more resources.

-       Can users deal with the wave ensemble running later in the cycle (~25min later)?

-       Need to make hurricane wave decision: move up and use old HWRF cycle, or move later and use current HWRF cycle?

 

3.    ††††††††††††NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Aijun Zhang):

 

No report.

 

4.              FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert):

 

-       We ran out of time in the meeting for a full report. MDL will report next month.

 

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

Weather Prediction Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett): Nothing to report.

 

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Israel Jirak): Nothing to report.

 

National Hurricane Center (NHC, no representative):

 

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, no representative):

 

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, Joe Sienkiewicz): Nothing to report.

 

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): Nothing to report.

 

Pacific Region (PR, no representative):

 

Alaska Region (AR, no representative):

 

Eastern Region (ER, Brian Miretzky): Nothing to report.

 

Western Region (WR, Andy Edman): See CR Note below.  WR is also in process of switching to 2.5km RTMA region wide.

 

Southern Region (SR, Bernard Meisner): No report

 

Central Region (CR, Jeff Craven):   An EMRS Tech Note has been sent to all CR WFOs to assure that the 2.5km RTMA is used in lieu of the 5km RTMA.  This will help us to provide input via the CR Verification Task Force to the URMA/AOR group.  We currently use a blend of 5km RTMA, 4km LAPS, 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM for our CONSobs to verify via BOIVerify using exact matching to the AWOS/ASOS/MADIS observations.   I am pushing for us to switch to 100% 2.5km RTMA on January 1st 2015 with no obs matching provided that the CRGMAT and VTF have reviewed and accept the 2.5km RTMA.   We have thought of a baby step to using 50% of 2.5km RTMA without matching obs and then the other 50% would be the current blended method but no action has been taken thus far.  

 

5.              NESDIS (no representative):

 

The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EST on Monday, April 7 2014 in NCWCP conference room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.