NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights January 30, 2006
This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended
by Geoff Dimego, Joe Carr, Dave Plummer, Bill Bua, Mary Hart, Zoltan Toth, Mark
Iredell, Dan Pawlak, Keith Brill, Ed Danaher, Larry Burroughs,
stated the moratorium ended in early January and the CCS upgrade (Service Pack
12 on White and the Global Parallel File System - GPFS) was completed. The replacement for White (in
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Modeling Branch: Iredell stated testing of the GSI replacement to SSI is ongoing. The SSI is considered frozen. They will also transition to a hybrid vertical coordinate system. Evaluation of this next upgrade is pending but targeted to occur before summer.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB): Geoff
DiMego stated the next big event will be the WRF parallel with an intended 2
month evaluation ending by June. The
parallel will include analysis changes (adding Level II radar velocities). The model can now be run to fit into its slot
in the production suite. The BUFR sounding output is targeted extend out to f84
(currently f60). Further, the 06/18Z cycles of the
Global Ensemble Prediction System:
Zoltan Toth stated the new method for generating perturbations
(stochastic method – ensemble tranfsorm) is “looking
good” and targeted for implementation in FY 07. This method reduces the number
of outliers in the ensemble (and increases the spread). This method will also
eliminate the negative/positive paired perturbation configuration. Additionally, at least 4 members will be added
to each cycle with the potential of an additional 6 (total 10) depending on
computing resources. The two month evaluation period for this parallel is
intended to end in April. The changes to
the NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System imply an upgrade to the North American
Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). The
NAEFS will also expand up to 60 members (20 members from Canadians, NCEP, and
the Navy). Tests on producing bias
corrected fields and climatological anomalies are intended to begin in May. An NAEFS meeting will be held in May in
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB):
Larry Burroughs announced his retirement date is June 2 of this year.
Regina Nichols will be his replacement.
Larry also stated that the wave ensemble will come on line in March, the
3. The next meeting will be held Feb 27 2006 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.