Why verification is so important
HPC 24-h QPF Verification30+ years of deterministic forecasts
HPC verification (Cont.)
HPC 06 hr QPF Verification
What can you learn from verification?
What can you learn about a model or man
How Good are the Forecasts?
How Good Are the Forecasts?
Forecast Verification Strategy
Objective and subjective verification suggests that some patterns are more predictable than others.
A perfect threat score is 1.00. Forecasts are slowly improving but we have a long way to go before we even get good at forecasting precipitation amounts.
References for verification
Home Page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/res2.html
Download presentation source