## Krzysztofowicz approach

- relies on forecaster experience and verification to calibrate forecasts

## Ensemble approach

- using a coarser mesh, how do you assess risk of very heavy rainfall? Needs to be run at sufficient resolution to explicitly predict convection. Need to perturb physics.
- if 3 of ten members predict rain what does it mean?

## MOS or other statistical approaches (MOS, LAMP). Provides a probability of reaching a certain threshold at a given point based on statistical relationships with various observed and model forecast meteorological parameters.

- Well calibrated especially for lighter thresholds (the ones that are observed most)
- for heaviest thresholds will always have very low probabilities

## What about other approaches. For example the probability of receiving 4 inches or 5 inches somewhere within a predefined circle or ellipse.

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