PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
 
VALID 12Z THU NOV 26 2009 - 12Z SUN NOV 29 2009
 

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION...SO
ONCE AGAIN RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS MASS FIELDS TO CONSTRUCT THE
PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.  THE 00Z/22
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS A MORE AMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE 12Z/21 EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO THE TWO BLENDED...PARTICULARLY AT THE LATER
TIME RANGES...SHOULD AFFORD A MORE STABLE FORECAST.  THE GFS...GEM
GLOBAL...AND UKMET CANNOT AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF
THE CRITICAL WAVE OVER THE EAST BY DAYS 5 AND 6...SO ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY USEFUL FOR THIS FORECAST.


CISCO