PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
208 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 17 2012 - 12Z MON FEB 20 2012
 

USED A MANUAL BLEND PROGRESSING FROM PRIMARILY THE 00Z/13
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TO PRIMARILY THE 12Z/12 ECENS MEAN FOR THE
PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.  THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED THE STEADIEST OF THE GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES...AND HAS BEEN
VERIFYING WELL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE CURRENT COLD SEASON. 
THE 00Z/13 GEFS MEAN IS REASONABLY WELL CORRELATED WITH THE ECMWF
AND ECENS MEAN...THOUGH THE GREATER SPREAD BETWEEN ITS INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DILUTES ITS MASS FIELDS TOO MUCH FOR DIRECT
INCORPORATION INTO THE MANUAL BLEND.  THE GFS AND UKMET TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES DIFFER SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FROM THE ECMWF
AND MEANS TO QUALIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS AS MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES.


CISCO