As the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean, the air mass continues to modify, with the shear line separating or racing ahead of the weakening baroclinic band.

Strong post frontal northerlies across southern Mexico (states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche), will generally favor shallow convective activity due to orographic forcing.  Dew point temperatures of 65F or greater will result in mixing ratios values of 12 g/kg.  The high moisture content and the terrain forcing will result in rainfall maxima of 6-8 inches during a 24 hrs period!!  This is an area where synoptic scale models such as the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS generally under estimate rainfall accumulation.

The shear line will support northerly flow across nrn Honduras and through Guatemala, with orographic forcing supporting shallow convection/cloud cover.  Rainfall amounts are not as intense as they are normally seen over southern Mexico.