During the Winter Months
Convective activity over the Gulf of Mexico and gulf
coast of Mexico tends to be capped below 500 hPa
Evaluate upper dynamics for CONVERGENCE or
DIVERGENCE before forecasting thunderstorms.
If models forecast post frontal northerlies of 25Kt or
greater, and dew point temperature of 20C (68F) or
greater over southern Mexico.
Forecast 12 hrs rainfall accumulation of at least 2-4 inches.