|As the system
moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean, the air mass
continues to modify, with the shear line separating or racing ahead of the
weakening baroclinic band.
frontal northerlies across southern Mexico (states of Chiapas, Tabasco and
Campeche), will generally favor shallow convective activity due to orographic
forcing. Dew point temperatures of
65F or greater will result in mixing ratios values of 12 g/kg. The high moisture content and the terrain
forcing will result in rainfall maxima of 6-8 inches during a 24 hrs
period!! This is an area where
synoptic scale models such as the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS generally under
estimate rainfall accumulation.
|The shear line
will support northerly flow across nrn Honduras and through Guatemala, with
orographic forcing supporting shallow convection/cloud cover. Rainfall amounts are not as intense as
they are normally seen over southern Mexico.