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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Camp Springs, MD

HPC Verification


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QPF's:    24-Hourly    6-Hourly    Days 4-5    5-Day Total
Medium Range:    Min Temps    Max Temps    Prob of Pcpn (PoP)    HPC Grids    Sea-level Pressure

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts


How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual HPC Day-1 / Update / Day-2 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 Bias
.50 inch (1972-2007) 1.00 inch (1965-2007) 2.00 inches (1970-2007)
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Annual HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2007
1.00 inch
Day 1 Threat

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
May 2007 to May 2008
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Day 1 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 2 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 3 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
May 2007 to May 2008
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
May 2007 to May 2008
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

NAM and GFS QPF Verification by Region


6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
June 2007 to June 2008
00-06 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
June 2007 to June 2008
06-12 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
12-18 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
18-24 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
24-30 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
June 2007 to June 2008
30-36 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
36-42 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
42-48 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
48-54 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
June 2007 to June 2008
54-60 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
60-66 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
66-72 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
72-78 Hours .25 inch .50 inch


Days 4-5 QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
May 2007 to May 2008
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
May 2007 to May 2008
Threat Bias

5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
May 2007 to May 2008
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches 3.00 inches 4.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
May 2007 to May 2008
Threat Bias

Medium-Range Forecasts


Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures


Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2007)
HPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (June 2007 - June 2008)
HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts
HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 min temp fcsts
HPC winning percent vs MOS for days 3-7 min temp fcsts


Maximum Temperatures


Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2007)
HPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts
HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (June 2007 - June 2008)
HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts
HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 max temp fcsts
HPC winning percent vs MOS for days 3-7 max temp fcsts


Probability of Precipitation (PoP)


Monthly Performance Charts (June 2007 - June 2008)

HPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
HPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (June 2005 - June 2006)
HPC Brier scores for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts
HPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

HPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts


How grids are verified

Monthly Performance Charts (July 2006)
HPC/NDFD/MOS Minimum Temperature RMS Errors (days 4-7)
HPC/NDFD/MOS Maximum Temperature RMS Errors (days 4-7)
HPC/NDFD/MOS 12-Hour PoP Brier Score (days 4-7)
HPC/NDFD Wind Direction RMS Errors
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
HPC/NDFD Wind Speed RMS Errors
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
HPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature RMS Errors
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
HPC/NDFD Cloud Cover RMS Errors
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)

Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)

HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations

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Last Updated July 2, 2008