HPC Verification Statistics

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HPC Verification

Jump To
QPF's: 24-Hourly 6-Hourly Days 4-5 5-Day Total
Medium Range: Min Temps Max Temps Prob of Pcpn (PoP) HPC Grids Sea-level Pressure

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores and Observed Areal Coverage; Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias

.50 inch (1961-2008)	1.00 inch (1961-2008)	2.00 inches (1970-2008)
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Annual HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores 1993-2008

	1.00 inch
Day 1	Threat	Percent Improvement Over NWP

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2008 to September 2009

	.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Day 1	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 2	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 3	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00") September 2008 to September 2009

Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3) September 2008 to September 2009

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

NAM and GFS QPF Verification by Region

6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Update October 2008 to October 2009

00-06 Hours

.25 inch

.50 inch

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 1 October 2008 to October 2009

06-12 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
12-18 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
18-24 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
24-30 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 2 October 2008 to October 2009

30-36 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
36-42 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
42-48 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
48-54 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 3 October 2008 to October 2009

54-60 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
60-66 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
66-72 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
72-78 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

HPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores November 2008 to October 2009

All 6-Hour Periods

.25 inch

.50 inch

Days 4-5 QPF's

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2008 to September 2009

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00" September 2008 to September 2009

Threat

Bias

5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2008 to September 2009

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches	3.00 inches	4.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00" September 2008 to September 2009

Threat

Bias

Medium-Range Forecasts

Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2008)

HPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (October 2008 - October 2009)

HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-October 2009)

HPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Maximum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2008)

HPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (October 2008 - October 2009)

HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-October 2009)

HPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (October 2008 - October 2009)

HPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January-October 2009)

HPC improvement over MOS Brier score, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (September 2008 - September 2009)

HPC Brier scores for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

HPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

HPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts

How grids are verified

Monthly Performance Charts (September 2009)
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error

Forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists

MOS/HPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature (Days 4-7)	MAE	Bias
MOS/HPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature (Days 4-7)	MAE	Bias
MOS/HPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP (Days 4-7)	Brier Score

Products derived from forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists

MOS/HPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Speed
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Direction
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

HPC/NDFD Cloud Cover
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)

HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations


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Page last modified: Saturday, 07-Nov-2009 02:34:51 GMT