Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.


About the WPC

WPC's Mission:
A leader in the collaborative weather forecast process by delivering responsive, accurate, and reliable national forecasts and analyses.
 
Vision Statement:
America's Go-To Center for high-impact precipitation events and forecast guidance out to 14 days for a Weather-Ready Nation.
 
View a brief history of the WPC.

Click here to learn about WPC in more detail, including:

1) Vision and mission
2) Partners and customers
3) Products and services
4) Value added by WPC forecasters
5) WPC plans


The primary functions of the WPC:

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

The QPF desk prepares and issues forecasts of accumulating (quantitative) precipitation, heavy rain, heavy snow, and highlights areas with the potential for flash flooding.   The basic QPF products are primarily directed to the NWS forecast offices and are available on the Internet for public use.  The heavy snow forecast products, in association with the short-range public forecast products (described below), serve as a coordinating mechanism for the NWS winter storm watch and warning program.  Through a continuous watch for excessive rainfall, heavy snow, and winter storms, this desk ensures that the highest quality forecast products are constantly available.  

The QPF desk is co-located with the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and together they comprise the National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU).  NESDIS meteorologists prepare estimates of rainfall and current trends based on satellite data, and this information is used by the QPF short term forecaster as part of the input for individual 6-hourly forecasts that cover the next 12 hours.   With access to WSR-88D/Doppler radar data, satellite estimates, and NCEP model forecast data as well as current weather observations and WPC analyses, the forecaster has the latest data for use in preparation of short-range precipitation forecasts.  Meteorological reasoning discussions are regularly written and issued with the forecast packages to explain and support the forecast.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions (MPDs) include a discussion accompanied by a graphic showing areas where WPC forecasters expect conditions to occur that may cause flash flooding over the next 6 hours. This product complements the Excessive Rainfall Outlook by serving as a short term update to that product, which covers a larger time period; up to 24 hours. The MPD is more detailed and focused on a smaller area. Often, more than one MPD will be in effect at the same time covering different areas and timeframes.

The MPD is produced when the forecaster identifies a risk of rainfall sufficient to produce flash flooding. Antecedent rainfall, terrain, and the meteorological factors are taken into account in deciding when and where to issue an MPD. The MPD provides critical meteorological support to the forecast offices with life threatening flash flooding. This product is produced by the same forecaster who produces the Model Diagnostic Discussion.

Winter Weather Forecasts

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Winter Weather Desk issues heavy snow and icing operational products.  These products provide support to the NWS winter weather watch/warning/outlook program.  These forecasts are for the contiguous United States (CONUS) and are routinely issued from September 15 to May 15.  Graphical forecasts are issued twice daily at 0900 UTC and 2100 UTC (4AM/PM EST respectively), although updates may be warranted by rapidly changing conditions.

The Winter Weather Desk issues probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance products for Days One, Two, and Three.  The forecasts represent the probability that freezing rain or combined snow/sleet accumulations will meet specific criteria in a 24-hour period.   These products are issued in probabilistic form to better represent the forecast uncertainty associated with a particular event.  Specific (deterministic) accumulations for a particular location in the United States can be obtained from the National Weather Service home page.   The probabilistic graphics combined with the deterministic forecasts provide a user two elements; the most likely amount expected from an event and a sense of "what's possible" in terms of accumulations.

The Winter Weather Desk produces a heavy snow and icing discussion that provides the meteorological reasoning for the 24-hour probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance graphics for Days One, Two, and Three.  This text message is used by internal and external clients including NWS field offices, Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, the White House, Department of Commerce, FAA, and the general meteorological community (private sector and the media).

Short Term Forecasts

The short range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for the time period of 6 through 60 hours.  These products are issued twice daily using guidance from the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale model (NAM), as well as guidance from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office (UKMET), the Meteorological Service of Canada, including ensembles.   Coordination with the surface analysis, model diagnostics, quantitative precipitation, winter weather, and tropical forecast desks is also performed during the short range forecast process.   The short range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts for 6-60 hours, and a depiction of the types and extent of precipitation that are forecast at the valid time of the chart.  In addition, discussions are written on each shift and issued with the forecast packages that highlight the meteorological reasoning behind the forecasts and significant weather across the continental United States.

Medium-Range (Days 3-7) Public Forecasts

The medium range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for days 3 through 7.   The products include: 1) surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts for days 3-7; 2) daily maximum and minimum temperatures and anomalies for days 3-7; 3) Probability of Precipitation in 12 hour increments for days 3-7; 4) two 48-hour QPFs encompassing Days 4-5 and Days 6-7 and 5) 500mb height forecasts for days 3-7.  

The surface pressure and fronts graphics are generated three times per day, while the 500mb forecasts and temperature/probability of precipitation graphics are issued twice per day. Forecasters routinely use guidance from the NWS medium range forecast model (GFS) as well as models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office (UKMET), Canadian model, the Navy NAVGEM model, and ensemble guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).  

In addition, a narrative is issued twice daily highlighting forecast reasoning and significant weather over the Continental United States.  Forecasters also provide a separate discussion describing guidance differences and preferences across Hawaii.

Alaska Medium-Range (Days 4-8) Public Forecasts

The Alaska medium range forecasters review the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance (e.g., GFS, Global Ensemble Forecast System, or GEFS; Canadian GEM Global; Canadian GEM Ensembles; ECMWF; ECMWF Ensembles; Navy NAVGEM; UKMET; and the North American Ensemble Forecast System, or NAEFS) to compose the most likely forecast for Alaska and surrounding areas valid on days 4-8.

The Alaska Medium Range product suite consists of:
  • Day 4-8 Surface Fronts and Pressures graphics
  • Day 4-8 500 hPa Height graphics
  • Alaska Medium Range Forecast Discussion
  • Day 4-8 Maximum/Minimum Temperature grids
  • Day 4-8 12-hour Probability of Precipitation grids
  • Day 4-8 derived Dewpoint Temperature, Cloud Cover, Precipitation Type, and Wind Speed/Direction grids
The surface fronts and pressures graphics and 500mb hPa heights are valid at 1200 UTC on forecast days 4-8. Each of the grids are available downscaled to 5-km horizontal resolution.  

Numerical Model Diagnostics and Interpretation

The purpose of the WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion is to provide objective information and subjective interpretation concerning the current runs of the NCEP short range numerical models.  The WPC model diagnostic meteorologist prepares the Model Diagnostic Discussion twice per day corresponding to the 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC model runs.  This narrative consists of three sections: 1) An evaluation of the initialization of the NAM and GFS.  The meteorologist compares the model analyses with available observed data (radiosondes, aircraft, surface observations, satellite imagery, etc.), and notes features that do not appear to be properly represented and have an adverse impact on the models' forecasts after the analysis time.   2) A review of model trends and biases.  This section describes how the models are trending in their evolution and progression of important features when compared to previous runs.  This section also includes any significant persistent errors that recent model forecasts have been making with respect to a particular feature or over a general region.  3) A description of model differences and preferences.   The meteorologist reviews how the suite of models from the latest forecast cycle differ from each other in their forecasts of significant features.  Where differences exist, he or she takes into account other available models from previous cycles (ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, NAVGEM, ensembles, etc.) and the information in 1) and 2) above to formulate a preferred model or model blend.

Surface Analysis

The WPC Surface Analysis is part of the NWS Unified Surface Analysis and a collaborative effort with the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  The WPC focuses on the synoptic and mesoscale features over North America, north of 31N.

The Surface Analysis itself is a manual analysis of surface fronts and pressure over North America and adjacent oceans at three hour intervals.  The Analysis utilizes a variety of weather data in addition to observations of surface weather conditions, such as upper air observations, global satellite imagery, Doppler radar, and model mass fields to ensure that the product is meteorologically consistent and of the highest quality.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

The WPC is the official back-up center to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  In this capacity, the WPC is responsible for issuing all tropical cyclone products, including discussions, graphics and watches and warnings that would normally be issued by the NHC for any tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean or eastern Pacific Ocean basins, if NHC is unable to so for any reason.

During the tropical weather season which runs from May 15-November 30, the WPC has several other routine duties pertaining to tropical weather forecasting.  The first duty is to provide track forecast guidance to the NHC whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W longitude.   As required, this guidance is provided to the NHC four times daily for use in the tropical cyclone package issued by the NHC at 0300 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1500 UTC and 2100 UTC.  The WPC also participates in the Hurricane Hotline call with the NHC and other forecast offices and government agencies for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W longitude.

Another duty of the WPC tropical desk is to provide the rainfall statement for tropical cyclones that are expected to make landfall.  This statement is included in the Public Advisory issued by the NHC, and is a forecast of expected rainfall amounts that will occur with the tropical cyclone.

Finally, the WPC tropical desk also has the responsibility for issuing Public Advisories whenever a tropical cyclone has made landfall in the U.S. or adjacent parts of Mexico, has weakened below tropical storm status, and the NHC is no longer issuing advisories on the system but the system is still capable of producing flooding type rains.  This WPC Public Advisory will continue to be issued until the flooding rainfall threat is over.  The advisory will contain information on how much rainfall has occurred with a particular tropical system, and will also include forecast information on the remnants of the system.

International Desks 

The International desks have a variety of responsibilities, principally the training of foreign visitors in the use of Numerical Weather Prediction products.  The International desk routinely hosts visitors from Central and South America and the Caribbean.  Visiting meteorologists train, and also generate forecasts for their own national centers, and assist WPC forecasters with QPF related to tropical cyclones in Central America and the Caribbean.


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Feb-2014 12:59:33 UTC