HMT-WPC Experiment Summaries
2015 NOAA HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
From January 12 - February 13, HMT-WPC hosted it's annual Winter Weather Experiment. Now in it's fifth year, the experiment brought together forecasters, researchers, and model developers from across the weather enterprise to conduct exercises aimed at continuing improvement of winter weather forecasts. This year's focus of the experiment was the continued exploration of micro-physics based snowfall forecasting methods, along with expanding medium range probabilistic winter weather forecasts to include forecasts of heavy snow and freezing rain from Days 4-7. Additionally, this year's experiment featured a daily webinar, where participants shared their forecast thoughts and discussed experimental model data with remote participants. Here is a complete summary of the 2015 Winter Weather Experiment.
2014 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR)
The second annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) was conducted July 7-25, 2014. Building off of the success of last year's experiment, participants from across the weather enterprise explored the utility of neighborhood probability techniques and other convection-allowing model guidance to improve short-term flash flood forecasts. In addition to issuing experimental forecasts, participants in FFaIR provided a daily forecast briefing to support the HWT-Hydro experimental flash flood warning activities. FFaIR also featured the debut of a new flash flood verification database. The development of this database represents a significant step forward in our verification capabilities by combining flsh flood information from multiple sources. A complete summary of the experiment is available here.
2014 NOAA HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
The fourth annual HMT-WPC Winter Weather Experiment was conducted January 21 - February 21, 2014. Experiment participants included forecasters, researchers, and model developers from a variety of sectors of the weather enterprise, and for the first time remote participation by National Weather Service forecasters from selected offices. The focus of the experment was the continued exploration of micro-physics based snowfall forecasting methods, along with a first time look at the coupling of NAM micro-physics with the Noah Land Surface Model to generate snowfall accumulation forecasts. Another first in this year's experiment was the exploration of medium range probablisitc winter weather forecasts. Participants evaluated several medium range guidance data sets, and generated Day 4-7 forecasts each day. Here is a complete summary of the 2014 Winter Weather Experiment.
2013 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR)
In collaboration with the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), HMT-WPC conducted the inaugural Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) July 8 - 26, 2013. During the experiment, forecasters, researchers, and model developers worked together as a collaborative forecast team to explore the challenges associated with issuing short-term QPF and flash flood forecasts. The experiment featured a variety of deterministic and probabilistic high resolution model data and identified several new forecast tools that will be used on WPC's new MetWatch Desk. Here is a complete summary of the 2013 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment.
2013 NOAA HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
The third annual HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment was conducted January 15 - February 15, 2013. The experiment brought together forecasters, researchers, and model developers from across the weather enterprise to explore the use of ensemble systems to help quantify and communicate uncertainty in winter weather forecasts. This year's experiment also highlighted a new snowfall accumulation technique that uses model microphysics information to refine the snowfall forecasts. The experiment highlighted the importance of ensemble guidance for winter weather forecasts and identified several potential ways to improve and expand WPC's current winter weather product suite. Here is a complete summary of the 2013 Winter Weather Experiment.
2012 Atmospheric River Retrospective Forecasting Experiment
The first Atmospheric River Retrospective Forecasting Experiment (ARRFEX) was a collaboration between the Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)-Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). The experiment was held September 17-28, 2012 at the new National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP). The experiment brought together forecasters, modelers and researchers from River Forecast Centers (RFC), Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), ESRL and the University of Utah to identify potential techniques to improve forecasts of atmospheric river (AR) induced extreme precipitation events along the U.S. West Coast. The experiment featured retrospective analysis of 8 pre-selected AR events that resulted in heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during the 2009-2012 cool seasons. Participants were instructed to create a variety of forecast products, in pseudo-real time, for each event using archived operational and experimental numerical model guidance and datasets. Here is a complete summary of the 2012 Atmospheric River Retrospective Forecasting Experiment.
2012 NOAA HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
The second annual HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment was conducted January 9 - February 10, 2012, and brought together forecasters, researchers and model developers to explore the challenges of probabilistic winter weather forecasting. The experiment focused on the use of ensemble systems to help quantify and communicate uncertainty in winter weather forecasts. The experiment revealed that while probabilistic winter weather forecasting remains a challenge, higher resolution ensembles can provide critical forecast details needed to isolate specific parameters for better depiction of forecast uncertainty. Here is a complete summary of the 2012 Winter Weather Experiment.
QPF Component of the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment
Continuing the partnership started in 2010, HMT-HPC staff and HPC forecasters once again traveled to Norman, OK to facilitate the QPF component of the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment. During the experiment, participants evaluated the utility of high resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance for precipitation forecasting. High resolution ensembles were again found to provide skillful forecast guidance, highlighting the potential for this type of guidance to add further skill to warm season QPF in the future. Here is a complete summary of the 2011 QPF component of the experiment.
2011 NOAA HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
The inuagural HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment was held at HPC during January-February 2011. HPC forecasters as well as visiting scientists from NOAA-HMT, other NCEP centers and NWS field officies participated in the experiment. The primary focus of the experiment was to explore the role of high-resolution model data in improving forecasts of precipitation type, snow and ice accumulation, and meso-scale snow bands. The experiment revealed that the high resolution models were often too slow with the progression of the surface low, which impacted their precipitation and thermal fields. Here is a complete summary of the 2011 Winter Weather Experiment.
QPF Component of the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment
HMT-HPC partnered with the Hazardous Weather Testbed to add a QPF component to their 2010 Spring Experiment. During the experiment, participants explored the use of high resolution convection-allowing deterministic and ensemble guidance for potential improvement of warm season QPF. High resolution models were found to have skill in forecasting warm season QPF, which portends well for future forecast improvements. Forecast guidance from the 4km, 26 member Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast system (SSEF) provided by University of Oklahoma's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) was particularly impressive. A summary of the QPF Component of the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment was presented at the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle, WA. In addition to leading the QPF component of the HWT Spring Experiment, HMT-HPC hosted a two week parallel experiment for HPC forecasters.