QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
452 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
 
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 07/1200 UTC THRU NOV 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..SO
MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS TO THE
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
NO MAJOR CHG IS XPCD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATN OVR THE NWRN STATES THIS
PD..WITH A BROAD DEEP LYRD CYCLONIC FLO PERSISTING FM THE NERN PAC
INTO THE PAC NW..NRN GT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  THE COMBO OF THIS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLO AND EMBEDDED S/WVS IN THIS FLO
ENHANCING THE LRG SCALE LIFT WL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE
SHOWERY PCPN PATN FM THE PAC NW EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  THE
LATEST MDL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..AND ARE
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOF AGREEMENT QPF-WISE..SO DIDN'T DEVIATE MUCH
FM THEM.  XPC ADDITIONAL MDT TO EVEN SOME LCLY HVY PCPN AMTS IN
THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE WA AND NRN OR CSTL RANGES AND
CASCADES..AS WELL AS THE HIER ELEVS OF NRN ID.  ADDITIONAL LCLY
HVY SNOWS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HIER ELEVS..PLS SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.


MUCH OF THE RMNDR OF THE NATION WL CONT DRY THIS PD..UNDER EITHER
A ZONAL FLO REGIME OR UNDER THE STG
MID/UPR LVL RDG THAT'S IN PLACE OVR THE GULF CST STATES.  THERE
MAY BE SOME LGT RAINS VRY LT IN THE PD OVR SRN TX IN RETURN FLO
OFF THE WRN GULF AHD OF THE SRN BRANCH CLOSED LOW MOVG THRU OLD
MEXICO..BUT AMTS SHLD RMN BLO 0.25 INCH.  LGT RAINS MAY ALSO BRUSH
THE FL KEYS LTR IN THE PD..VCNTY OF QSTNRY FNT JUST S OF THE AREA.
 
 
DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHWEST...

A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THE PD...WITH A
STRONG CDFNT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.  WHILE THE
BULK OF MSTR WILL REMAIN IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THERE WILL BE A PD
OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE OR/WA COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES.  2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MSTR WILL SPREAD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR UP TO AN INCH IN THE FAVORED
TERRAIN.  HPC FAVORED A 00Z ECMWF/GFS BLEND HERE.         

...CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES...

A WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PD...WITH A CDFNT EXTENDING
THROUGH PLAINS.  THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK...BUT LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEAK DEFORMATION
ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ALSO ALONG THE CDFNT. 
MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
PRODUCED MORE QPF THAN OTHERS.  HPC BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH THE
GFS.  

...GULF COAST...

LOW CONFIDENCE HERE GIVEN INTERACTION OF IDA AND POSSIBLE SEPARATE
SFC FEATURES UNDERNEATH A POTENTIALLY MANGLED CLUSTER OF ENERGY
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPR TROF.  REGARDING IDA...00Z GFS
PROVIDES THE CLOSET MATCH TO NHC GUIDANCE...SO IT WAS USED FOR
GENERAL PLACEMENT OF HVY ONSHORE QPF AS IT GETS INTO THE GULF. 
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE HVY
RAINFALL REGARDLESS OF IDA...SO 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
48 HR PD ENDING TUE MORNING ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS.       

...FLORIDA KEYS... 

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ACT ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SAGS SWWD MONDAY EVENING.  HPC USED AN
ENSEMBLE BLEND HERE GIVING GENERALLY 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. 


TERRY/SOWKO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 534205 534197 532189 527176 521165 517160 514157 498139 
      494135 489130 484126 478125 474125 470127 469133 466139 
      463140 457141 453144 449148 442147 438147 436151 438158 
      440165 442169 445172 445179 444181 441182 441188 445191 
      451196 453201 453205 451209 447212 441211 435211 432210 
      429214 425218 423221 422225 423227 427231 423234 418233 
      411234 407237 406241 409245 412250 417254 423257 431261 
      453264 466265 476269 481272 486278 489283 491285 493289 
      497292 501294 504294 508293 512290 513287 517278 521265 
      522260 521255 520246 515233 514222 515217 518210 523209 
      529211 534205 
 0.01 478003 478996 477992 475989 470989 466996 463005 458022 
      458026 457030 456036 457043 452060 450064 447066 443067 
      441069 441073 443076 447080 452083 454080 457072 463055 
      462047 461042 463038 470025 477007 478003 
 0.01 456114 456109 457106 456099 455096 451093 435093 432092 
      428089 426089 425092 427096 428100 427100 423103 421108 
      420114 415114 413116 415120 417122 415145 412156 411164 
      413168 413172 411178 413181 415180 419177 421172 423162 
      425149 428139 432130 434124 437122 443123 447122 454118 
      456114 
 0.01 250790 249784 246781 242780 240782 236786 235790 234797 
      234806 235815 235821 236827 239831 243833 248830 249825 
      250818 250809 251799 250790 
 0.01 283972 282966 276962 270958 267956 264953 261952 253955 
      251956 249959 249963 251967 255972 260975 267977 272980 
      278982 281979 282975 283972 
 0.25 514262 516256 516252 514245 510231 505220 500207 497203 
      493200 483202 467207 463208 460208 458209 454212 446215 
      442216 437219 436222 438229 439232 438235 434239 433240 
      432244 435247 442250 448251 458252 465252 471255 477258 
      483262 498280 503280 506275 506269 508264 513263 514262 
 0.25 518186 518181 517176 513170 508162 503155 500150 495142 
      489137 486134 483133 482136 483140 485144 486147 485152 
      482152 473151 468149 464153 464157 465161 469167 474169 
      477172 483178 487183 493188 497188 506188 511188 518186 
 0.25 494240 493239 492234 491233 489229 489228 486226 483227 
      482231 482232 485234 488235 491237 492239 493241 494240 
 0.25 447109 447108 444105 442105 441104 440104 438106 436108 
      438109 441111 443113 444113 446111 447109 
 0.25 246804 246798 242793 241794 240797 239803 239807 238810 
      239817 240822 243824 245821 245817 245814 246808 246804 
 0.50 511255 511249 511244 509237 504224 500215 497210 494206 
      486204 464211 451215 442219 440220 439222 441225 447228 
      453226 454231 448233 443236 441241 441244 444246 456247 
      463247 468248 482253 486253 489249 489247 481235 477229 
      474229 470228 470224 475221 480221 485223 491228 494234 
      497240 501246 506254 509256 511255 
 0.50 499172 500168 499165 497163 496162 493161 490160 487159 
      485160 482160 479164 481167 482169 484171 486174 489175 
      490175 492175 495174 498173 499172 
 0.50 243805 243803 242802 241803 241806 243808 243805 
 0.50 243815 243812 243809 241808 241810 241813 241815 243816 
      243815 
 1.00 501238 502228 500223 498218 494212 491211 485210 482209 
      476212 476216 478217 484219 490222 492225 495231 499237 
      501238 
 1.00 479239 476236 472237 470238 468235 464234 461236 455235 
      452236 447237 448241 451242 457242 461242 466241 472241 
      475242 478241 479239 
 1.00 461225 463224 465221 465217 464216 461215 460216 458216 
      454217 452218 450219 448220 444221 444224 445224 446224 
      448223 451223 454222 457223 459225 461225 
 1.50 498227 498225 496221 494218 492216 490215 489215 490217 
      493221 495226 496226 498230 498227  
 
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 525251 522239 515228 513223 510217 507213 503207 504204 
      507202 515212 520220 524224 528222 532218 536211 537207 
      537199 536191 534187 531180 529174 527169 523163 517160 
      511158 506157 502155 500149 497145 490134 481128 475125 
      473125 471127 469134 468140 462142 460144 459149 459160 
      461165 463169 468174 474174 477175 480177 486185 489193 
      487197 478200 474202 472202 468205 466209 462212 456214 
      452218 454222 458227 459229 455231 449231 445234 443236 
      445241 447246 451250 460257 463260 466266 472278 475288 
      480298 488303 495305 503305 508303 
 0.01 482827 478817 474806 464787 458779 452774 447775 444779 
      441786 442833 435874 431882 429892 426910 425914 425917 
      428924 429927 433932 437930 439926 443924 444928 444933 
      441944 439953 439959 442964 460958 465955 467952 470943 
      471939 471931 469927 466924 464923 466919 467916 470908 
      474897 476886 478865 482842 483832 482827 
 0.01 401057 402049 402042 403034 400027 395031 393035 390039 
      386041 384046 383050 384055 388057 392060 395059 398060 
      401057 
 0.01 333895 333888 331881 327877 323874 316873 307872 301872 
      295873 289876 283879 277884 272890 259905 250919 245926 
      242934 241944 242954 242960 241966 240971 242977 248980 
      256982 262984 263988 264995 266000 271006 274009 274013 
      273015 270018 269024 270031 272035 276037 281036 285032 
      286028 290019 292015 296011 302005 307997 308994 307987 
      303975 300967 297957 325934 330925 332913 333903 333895 
 0.01 258825 254814 250806 248800 246797 242796 240798 236805 
      235815 238826 242837 245842 246844 250847 256847 258846 
      260843 260840 258828 258825 
 0.25 521270 521261 520255 516244 513234 508226 498209 495208 
      492208 483209 480209 475211 473214 473216 475221 479225 
      473228 469231 465232 458236 461241 465244 472250 478258 
      483266 493281 497285 502288 509288 516282 
 0.25 528203 527198 526193 527188 527183 524178 520172 517172 
      516173 513173 507171 503173 502178 502182 504187 508192 
      514193 516197 522201 525202 528203 
 0.25 313914 312907 310903 304895 300891 296889 292889 286891 
      279897 274905 264922 260930 257939 254949 254954 256961 
      260969 266975 270980 274982 278983 282981 286959 291951 
      298945 305936 310928 313920 313914 
 0.25 249822 249819 248816 247813 245811 244809 241810 239812 
      239813 239816 239819 240822 241825 242828 244830 245831 
      248830 249828 249825 249822 
 0.50 515276 517271 518265 517258 514249 511241 506230 502222 
      499218 496216 493217 491219 490225 493233 491236 488237 
      481240 475238 477243 482254 489266 497278 499281 503284 
      506285 510284 515276 
 0.50 309919 308913 306907 302901 297896 295895 290897 284902 
      280906 272919 268926 266934 267943 269950 270955 270959 
      269962 269965 271968 273968 274965 273960 273958 275956 
      282952 288947 298937 304930 307925 309919 
 0.50 246823 246820 246817 243815 242815 241817 241819 241822 
      242824 244826 246824 246823 
 1.00 508278 509271 507265 508262 511263 511261 510250 506244 
      502239 498229 496231 497235 499240 501246 502252 497251 
      495248 489243 487243 486246 488256 494267 499275 502279 
      505280 508278 
 1.00 300917 299911 298908 294905 289906 287909 285914 283918 
      282922 282928 282931 285933 291931 296928 298926 300921 
      300917 
 1.50 506273 506272 504267 501263 500260 499260 497256 495254 
      494253 491251 490252 491254 491257 493260 495263 495264 
      498267 498269 500272 502275 505277 506273 
 1.50 294916 294912 293910 290913 290917 291918 294917 294916 
 
 
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 483678 477670 474668 471668 469670 464676 463682 461687 
      458693 442728 439735 434745 431757 431770 429777 424785 
      421793 418802 419807 417812 415821 407843 392870 384887 
      379897 376908 371943 365959 360969 355977 347991 343996 
      341000 341004 348003 356999 363993 366989 369990 374996 
      377997 380995 383988 386980 390972 395963 398963 401968 
      405977 409984 412987 416990 419986 420979 420971 419943 
      417928 421917 429901 430898 432896 435897 440896 444894 
      451888 457879 462868 467857 473841 479824 482813 482800 
      482772 483759 485750 486744 486741 485731 483715 481697 
      484687 483678 
 0.01 526252 520237 518232 516229 512220 509215 505211 504206 
      508206 512212 515218 520223 525224 528223 534219 538212 
      538201 537193 535186 528169 518157 515155 512156 506151 
      498150 494147 492140 490136 487134 480142 488150 491153 
      485156 466145 462149 459152 460156 467166 474168 477170 
      478173 482184 486190 487192 482196 472200 468205 462203 
      460201 457204 453210 443212 438209 435209 418215 413215 
      407217 401220 399226 393227 390232 391237 396244 405252 
      408254 415258 426266 435269 444271 451275 457278 464280 
      471281 481284 494286 499288 502291 511292 
 0.01 454747 451747 449749 448751 447753 446757 445758 444762 
      444764 444767 445771 446771 446770 448766 448764 449761 
      450759 451756 452753 452751 454747 
 0.01 462178 460176 456172 455164 454159 452157 450157 446158 
      448162 446167 443170 445174 447179 450180 450183 449188 
      449192 452194 454192 455189 458185 459181 462178 
 0.01 450184 447180 444182 443182 441184 440186 441187 444188 
      447187 450184 
 0.01 356831 354821 351812 347803 342796 337799 334802 330804 
      327803 323801 317799 310803 305805 298803 294807 292813 
      289817 288823 287829 284835 278841 275847 272851 270857 
      267868 260877 254890 252901 248911 247917 243923 240925 
      239929 238936 239943 239949 240963 241971 243977 246985 
      249991 256999 264005 270008 277007 278005 277000 276992 
      276985 274977 269965 267958 266952 271946 278943 284941 
      291941 303943 309944 315944 323942 330938 334936 338930 
      343920 349907 355892 358880 359872 358865 356855 356842 
      356831 
 0.01 286804 284801 281799 277797 273796 269798 263797 261801 
      263806 266806 268804 271807 274809 277811 282812 286807 
      286804 
 0.01 257831 255823 252815 248810 244805 239803 235804 233806 
      233812 235821 238829 241834 245839 251841 255840 257838 
      257831 
 0.01 248956 248953 247953 246953 247956 248958 248956 
 0.25 531209 533202 532195 529187 527182 524178 519173 514171 
      510171 503173 502176 503179 504183 508190 514196 519205 
      523212 527213 531209 
 0.25 516272 517267 518261 517251 514237 511229 507222 500211 
      496206 488204 482204 477206 466212 462213 458215 454216 
      452219 449226 440231 435234 429236 416235 413238 412242 
      413244 418248 422250 430253 435253 449255 462256 472258 
      479261 484265 494273 499279 501281 505283 513276 516272 
 0.25 493176 494171 492170 490168 487167 484169 486174 489177 
      492176 493176 
 0.25 420863 420861 417864 415867 413873 411875 405878 400882 
      398886 397891 397902 394914 394919 395922 397925 399926 
      402924 404919 406913 407901 411892 415881 418872 420863 
 0.25 350876 348868 345862 341858 338856 317849 307845 303844 
      298845 294848 289853 285861 277871 272879 269891 269903 
      271913 274919 278923 287927 296929 302930 309930 318926 
      329918 335909 340899 346890 350881 350876 
 0.50 529204 529199 528196 526193 524188 523187 520186 520187 
      520189 522192 523195 523197 525202 525203 527205 529204 
 0.50 513266 514258 513247 511236 508230 504224 502219 498213 
      494212 488212 483209 476212 473215 467217 459220 458224 
      458229 456232 452233 443236 435242 424240 421241 426247 
      432248 437246 439245 442245 450247 458249 467250 479253 
      484258 489264 497272 500275 504278 506277 513267 513266 
 0.50 344878 343872 341867 334862 326859 318856 303853 297854 
      294858 288864 280878 277888 275895 275901 276908 281916 
      288921 295923 305924 309923 314921 327911 338894 342886 
      344878 
 1.00 508259 511257 511252 510247 508240 503233 499223 497219 
      493218 490223 492228 494235 496245 493245 490243 487243 
      486247 487251 490257 494262 498263 505259 508259 
 1.00 479243 481240 480235 479233 476233 475233 473237 474242 
      475242 478244 479243 
 1.00 336881 335876 333872 330868 317865 305863 297866 293870 
      286880 283887 281893 282900 284905 289911 293913 301914 
      307913 313910 317906 325901 329896 333891 335884 336881 
 1.50 505244 505243 503238 502237 500234 499232 498228 498227 
      496222 495226 495227 496231 497236 499240 500242 501244 
      504245 505244 
 1.50 330882 328877 325874 314870 304869 298872 294876 287885 
      285889 285895 288903 291907 296909 301908 311904 322898 
      326893 328888 330882 
 2.00 320889 321883 318879 314877 308874 302874 297877 293882 
      290888 288895 291903 295906 303905 308902 314897 318892 
      320889 
 3.00 308886 307885 306883 304882 301882 299884 298885 297889 
      296892 295895 295896 296898 299898 302898 304897 306893 
      307893 307889 308886 308886