THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 26/0000 UTC THRU OCT 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHWEST U.S. WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FAVOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
RAIN ALONG THE WA/OR/NRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND INTO THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN SIERRA-NEVADA. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES FOR THE HIGHER AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WINDWARD
SLOPES. THIS INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM
SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AT LEAST SOME MODERATE
RAIN AND LOCALLY HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE
BITTERROOTS...SAWTOOTH AND INTO THE TETONS. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD
A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED
LOCALLY FOR TOPOGRAPHY AND REFLECTING THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.


...NORTH DAKOTA...

AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
MODELS SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT RAINS DEVELOPING WITH THIS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.


...NORTHEAST...

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SERIOUSLY LACKING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...AND WHILE SOMEWHAT ROBUST...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER OFF THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW LEVEL FETCH DOWN
THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE FAVORING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT AMOUNTS OTHERWISE SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SOME VERY MODEST LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 538205 539191 538180 536174 534168 530159 524151 517152
      508148 502142 497141 493138 488131 480127 471126 469125
      468122 467119 468114 469110 467105 463102 461098 460094
      463087 464075 464070 462066 459062 456059 451051 445058
      443062 443069 444075 447078 449085 445091 437092 434094
      430092 427089 424089 428099 427102 425103 421105 418108
      413106 408098 404109 402113 403118 404121 408124 412123
      416125 418127 417130 416135 414139 414145 413159 415165
      417169 414173 412178 411183 412190 410193 408199 405203
      400202 390199 382193 378191 374192 373197 376202 384209
      390214 394216 397219 399223 395225 390226 386223 381222
      378222 371218 370220 373225 381231 396241 405246 410249
      412253 420259 426261 430261 440264 445264 450265 466266
      477269 484276 491283 494287 497289 502290 506289 508288
      509285 510278 504260 506255 508254 510257 513261 516266
      520267 523262 523249 522242 523234 524229 526227 529223
      538205
 0.01 517687 516679 514670 509663 505661 498661 490663 484663
      480657 473646 469640 463636 458633 452632 445633 436635
      431639 428641 427643 426649 428654 432658 443664 442671
      440676 440682 442687 441691 439692 435700 434707 433711
      430714 429718 426721 422735 421742 418749 413754 410760
      408763 408768 408779 406785 400790 389794 383799 378804
      375810 370814 365819 362821 361825 366828 370824 374818
      380815 400795 402793 405792 412791 415793 419793 427792
      431790 434788 436782 437773 438768 443767 453760 457754
      460747 464733 468731 470732 477733 487738 493741 495741
      498738 501731 502726 503723 512710 515699 517687
 0.01 527010 528003 528995 525984 522974 524968 523962 520952
      517947 514946 504946 497950 491954 484959 482963 481971
      481979 480984 477994 476001 476009 479019 481022 486025
      493028 496031 501032 514023 518023 522021 524018 526013
      527010
 0.01 484191 480185 476179 472177 469177 467182 465185 459189
      455194 455198 456202 459202 462203 465205 468203 472198
      475199 477198 482194 484191
 0.01 417076 416072 417067 414063 412061 410065 407065 405064
      402066 400069 398071 394072 389077 389082 391085 394087
      398087 401087 405087 409087 411083 415077 417076
 0.25 531192 531188 529184 526179 522170 518164 510160 507158
      504155 494143 490138 484134 480133 476135 476137 478140
      482143 483146 482149 480151 474151 468144 460143 456145
      453148 449148 444144 441142 437141 435143 433149 433155
      434159 437162 440164 456187 462182 463177 458177 456176
      455173 455169 455165 458161 463161 467166 472167 476169
      480175 486181 491188 492198 485201 433215 429215 426215
      422219 422224 423228 418231 410233 405237 405240 409243
      416247 424250 430250 440251 446251 461250 475250 483250
      490255 496256 498255 501251 503249 508249 510247 512242
      512239 511233 508225 506217 502212 496205 494199 509206
      513210 517210 520208 526200 530196 531192
 0.25 486691 485680 481672 476667 470665 465670 463674 463678
      461686 459694 456702 450707 444711 441714 441718 442721
      441725 439729 441734 444736 447737 452733 456727 461721
      467717 475713 479712 481710 484702 486691
 0.25 501985 502980 502975 500971 499970 496967 494967 492967
      490970 489975 489977 489980 490984 492987 495987 497988
      500988 501985
 0.25 473229 473228 472227 470228 471229 473229 473229
 0.25 452230 452229 451229 450229 450231 452230 452230
 0.25 449232 449231 447231 448232 449232
 0.25 455118 457113 457108 455105 455101 452096 448095 446097
      443098 439098 436100 432106 430113 428115 431117 436116
      439116 442118 446121 451120 455118
 0.25 436758 436756 435754 434754 433753 431754 430757 430759
      431761 432764 433765 434763 435761 436760 436758
 0.25 419216 416211 413209 411213 408215 404210 400210 395206
      393207 393210 394212 398215 403219 405223 409225 414223
      418218 419216
 0.50 521197 522188 521183 516171 513168 508166 502164 496162
      485160 480160 478160 477164 483173 487176 491178 496182
      499187 501192 504196 514202 518201 521197
 0.50 509243 509237 508234 504224 500215 498210 493208 490206
      486204 482204 479205 463212 459212 456214 449217 440217
      431219 429223 430227 434230 438232 454226 457226 459230
      453232 437235 430236 419235 415234 412236 412240 413241
      416244 424246 433246 443247 451246 467245 476245 480244
      481241 481237 480233 476231 472232 467231 465229 468225
      471223 474221 479222 481224 485234 493235 496239 500242
      505245 509243
 0.50 461180 461178 460178 459179 457180 459182 460181 461180
 0.50 454162 454159 454156 453156 451155 450154 448154 446154
      445154 443154 442156 442159 444161 445162 447164 447165
      448166 450168 452167 452166 453164 454162 454162
 0.50 447111 447109 446107 445106 444105 442104 441104 439105
      438105 438107 438110 440111 442111 443112 445113 447112
      447111
 0.50 414219 414217 414215 412215 411216 410217 408218 408219
      407220 408221 409223 411222 412221 413220 414219
 1.00 499232 498224 497218 495215 492212 488210 485208 481208
      476210 472214 473217 476218 483220 487225 493228 498232
      499232
 1.00 475240 477238 476235 474235 473236 473239 474239 475240
      475240
 1.00 464221 464220 463218 461218 459218 457219 456219 455220
      455221 457223 458224 460225 462224 463223 464223 464221
 1.00 460238 458235 455234 452235 450236 447236 444237 442238
      442241 445241 448241 451241 454241 456240 459240 460238
 1.00 448224 449222 448221 447220 445220 443220 441222 443224
      444224 446225 448224 448224
 1.00 427242 426241 424240 423239 421238 419238 417238 416239
      417240 419241 420242 422242 424243 426242 427242
 1.50 492219 491219 490218 490216 489215 487214 486212 484211
      482211 481211 479212 477212 477213 478215 480216 482217
      483218 485218 486219 488220 490219 491220 492219 





Last Updated: 152 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014