THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 04/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD...BOTH IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THRU
THE OH VALLEY... WITH MODEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MS VLY INTO THE LOWER OH VLY
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
THIS AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS PHASES WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VLY INTO THE OH VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY
SLOWLY FALLING HEIGHTS AND A SLOW SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE
STRONGER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH CLEAR SUBTROPICAL CONNECTIONS PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW LOOPS...WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WPC CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE NORTH-SOUTH QPF DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME 2+ INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS
THIS PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VLY...WESTERN TN
VLY...AND LOWER OH VLY.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

DEEP MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THU AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE THE WAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE THU NIGHT.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE LOW
LEVEL FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-SOUTHEAST.  IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 
WPC AMOUNTS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NAM..GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE REGION.

HURLEY/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 479617 490625 493635 497646 498652 497659 495668 493679
      492685 489690 483699 481703 478707 474711 473714 470715
      464715 461716 459718 457722 453726 445732 443731 443724
      445717 447709 453704 460699 466694 471686 470678 466676
      462676 458672 452666 448663 443661 442674 437698 435703
      433709 431720 430726 431732 430737 431741 434742 436744
      436748 435752 435756 434761 430762 428772 423798 421806
      417815 409838 406843 404849 402861 397885 394895 392904
      389913 388922 388935 386940 386945 382970 378993 378997
      379001 381006 381010 383013 383021 389031 396036 400047
      402051 406054 400058 398062 394065 390064 387062 385060
      381060 379069 380074 379079 375077 371073 363068 357067
      353065 349066 346068 342072 340076 338083 339089 344100
      349108 346112 342113 339112 336109 331110 325109 321110
      317114 308126 305125 302123 297117 293111 289108 286104
      274091 267086 258083 248085 242085 238083 239075 241071
      244070 245067 246062 250058 255057 261058 266061 278068
      289080 294079 298077 308079 320064 317058 314054 310053
      306054 302057 298055 297048 295044 285027 279020 274015
      267003 260999 256998 253994 247990 248983 249979 262968
      269963 274957 279947 284939 293920 297899 301893 301882
      304874 304871 302871 300874 293891 287898 282898 280895
      282890 286886 288874 293864 298857 305850 307850 306856
      304864 304870 307871 310869 312868 315864 318859 322850
      327846 342835 348815 351805 354791 355779 351782 349787
      344795 340803 334810 328816 327806 328802 330798
 0.01 330798 340784 344779 349771 352766 354762 353757 347752
      345750 346745 349727 352720 357713 363697 366690 370682
      377668 381662 387655 400643
 0.01 517276 519269 520261 519256 513254 508260 505262 502267
      498276 497289 499300 501310 505309 507304 511295 513288
      515283 517276
 0.01 484867 484856 480847 474827 471825 467826 464828 462832
      461837 457840 452840 449843 447844 444848 442851 443858
      448858 451854 455855 461859 462871 466881 465893 465898
      467901 470900 473895 476890 477883 478877 484867
 0.01 439813 438808 436808 434806 431807 429809 429812 428814
      428819 430821 432821 434819 435818 437816 439813
 0.01 361083 361080 361078 360076 360074 358071 356071 355071
      354071 354073 354075 354077 354080 356080 357082 357083
      359085 361083 361083
 0.25 422668 422661 421656 414652 410650 407651 399657 390663
      384673 375691 372697 369707 366716 365720 364724 366728
      370727 375725 377728 377732 376740 375752 373763 370781
      363800 362814 361819 359824 352831 346841 309907 306914
      304924 302936 299947 296959 293971 295981 295993 291998
      291003 290010 296016 300019 302023 304029 303036 304038
      307040 311040 313039 317037 323036 328034 330031 334025
      338016 349000 353991 357980 362971 366960 373943 375933
      378920 383895 389872 400834 405811 407798 408791 408784
      409773 409762 411750 411737 416711 418701 420688 422668
 0.25 374053 375051 374049 372048 371048 370048 369048 367048
      365048 363048 361049 360051 359051 359054 361056 363056
      365056 366056 368055 370055 371055 372055 374053 374053
 0.25 268072 267070 264068 262067 260065 257064 253064 251065
      250069 251071 253073 256074 259075 263075 266074 268072
 0.50 418664 418659 416657 412657 408659 393669 387674 384681
      381686 380690 377700 376708 376711 378714 383719 384724
      383729 380751 378771 374787 370804 368815 365822 359831
      355837 352844 350851 347859 342866 326898 323903 318908
      313913 310920 308932 307946 305966 305971 307980 310987
      311993 314996 322998 331998 336995 339992 342983 345977
      349971 357957 366940 369930 371921 375906 380888 386870
      392850 396834 400816 404797 404791 403783 402777 403769
      406754 409735 416693 418679 418664
 1.00 398756 399754 399751 397750 397752 396754 396756 395759
      397761 397758 398757 398756
 1.00 399800 399794 397791 392784 388781 385784 380791 376812
      371819 367829 359845 356854 351864 344881 335900 328915
      318932 317936 317941 316955 320965 325969 330968 336963
      341957 346949 350945 354941 361925 369905 376888 382868
      388848 393826 399800
 1.00 395763 397761 395759 395761 395763 395764 395763
 1.50 390817 387798 384800 383804 380814 372826 364841 362848
      360856 357865 354873 340902 334916 326930 323937 322947
      327952 330954 334953 342942 346936 351927 358915 365900
      378868 383853 384845 386834 390817
 2.00 381843 378830 378825 374829 368840 366845 365852 364858
      363867 359879 356884 355892 358890 361885 364880 367874
      370869 375865 379852 381843
 2.00 352910 352905 349902 345908 342915 339922 336930 333936
      332944 334945 336943 337940 341934 344927 348920 351912
      352910 

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 510298 500288 495283 492277 489262 486246 487241 490241
      495244 498251 501249 502246 496234 495230 496224 499226
      503232 510235 512242 518246 525257
 0.01 421637 425642 427645 427652 429663 430673 429687 429695
      427701 425703 425708 426719 430725 437726 442725 446727
      441731 434733 427734 423735 421740 417753 412781 410798
      406813 402823 399829 396835 393842 390847 384861 380866
      379871 372880 344921 328948 317962 309977 303987 300988
      295990 286997 281001 280011 280016 282018 283024 276024
      271022 265019 261015 258011 253006 249994 235977 233974
      232969 231961 231953 231947 234942 236937 241933 244931
      247927 250922 251917 246907 242897 241884 243879 246875
      248871 253868 257866 261865 262862 269855 274849 291834
      297829 300825 301823 303821 301819 299819 299816 300809
      300805 298801 294803 284800 272801 267800 260802 256805
      252809 245816 244816 245811 246806 250802 253798 257794
      266789 276786 282785 288783 299777 306771 314764 319755
      322751 324745 329737 333728 338717 341706 349687 354676
      356671 358666
 0.01 540203 539196 537191 531181 525171 518165 512165 511173
      511181 514185 517190 517198 521210 525220 526223 529224
      532223 536218 538213 540203
 0.01 521886 521881 519879 515876 503877 496877 493870 491864
      487861 483865 482867 479866 480859 478854 477850 477844
      474839 470838 469841 469846 470850 467853 467862 469868
      469875 471880 471886 471896 473897 475890 475879 475874
      477871 479873 478877 478885 478887 482888 489887 493890
      497894 498898 498904 499912 501920 502921 504919 510908
      512903 515897 521886
 0.01 451716 451713 449713 448714 446712 444712 442711 440711
      439711 439712 439714 441714 443716 444715 446715 448715
      450716 451716 451716
 0.01 454833 453828 452826 451821 449819 446814 443810 438806
      434806 435816 436818 438820 441825 446829 450831 454833
 0.01 446860 445858 440858 436861 431862 428862 426860 422860
      421863 422867 424869 430869 435869 438866 441863 445860
      446860
 0.01 430778 431774 430771 428767 426765 422766 419768 418773
      420776 422779 422782 423789 425791 426789 427784 430778
      430778
 0.25 410640 416648 419653 421662 421675 421682 420687 414711
      409731 400776 397789 393800 390808 384817 376823 371832
      364838 360839 355837 347833 342823 339821 334821 332816
      332811 328810 329805 332795 335785 335778 333772 334764
      335759 340749 348732 357713 361706 369699 375690 378679
      385660 388652 392646
 0.25 536209 536204 536201 535198 534195 531193 529195 527198
      527199 528204 529207 531210 532211 534211 536209
 0.25 522267 521263 518258 515254 512251 508251 506255 504263
      502267 501270 503275 507278 511281 515280 518276 519276
 0.25 336880 335876 333876 329883 325889 322896 319902 316909
      315915 317919 322913 326906 329900 332893 334887 336880
 0.25 285887 284881 279881 275886 273891 271896 269902 271907
      273909 275907 279904 282900 284893 285887
 0.25 274939 273933 270929 268922 264925 256933 248941 243944
      239947 237952 235958 235965 239969 252970 258969 265970
      269965 270960 268956 270949 274939
 0.50 520271 520269 520268 519266 519264 517262 516261 514259
      513259 511260 510262 510265 510266 510268 511270 511271
      512273 514274 515275 517273 519271 520271
 0.50 414672 412657 410650 407646 402646 399648 393656 385675
      380695 377705 372715 368722 362729 359732 355737 351746
      349755 350760 354759 357756 360754 362758 360764 357767
      350772 345779 342790 344794 348796 349806 348818 349822
      351825 354824 360817 368812 374806 383802 386798 388793
      389781 391771 399750 404730 406719 408707 410697 410691
      412685 414678 414672 

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 537213 538207 538202 538191 537184 535181 531180 528174
      524167 521162 515157 510154 509155 510157 512166 510168
      508167 506167 505172 507180 513192 516199 517209 517214
      518217 520218 523216 525216 526220 532222 535217 537213
 0.01 520274 520268 517262 517251 516246 514240 509235 507239
      507245 506252 508257 508264 505267 500266 498265 498268
      497273 499279 505285 510286 513285 517276 520274
 0.01 532109 534090 534082 533076 532068 530063 524051 518041
      513035 504028 502022 500013 497000 494997 491993 484985
      477974 472964 467957 466956 464954 465953 467952 469947
      466937 461924 459920 455918 447913 443911 441914 441918
      443924 445929 450939 455947 460952 463953 464954 462957
      461972 459976 457981 460993 465004 467009 464013 468022
      472034 475041 478047 483056 486060 487067 490079 492086
      496090 504097 505104 504113 506117 507120 510120 514124
      520125 524122 527119 531114 532109
 0.01 521965 520960 519954 516950 514943 512935 509924 508919
      508913 508905 510900 509883 511877 510869 507857 505852
      505844 501835 500829 499825 496816 491805 486794 483791
      479788 473785 470785 469782 470775 471771 471765 471759
      470752 467746 466744 467740 469736 471731 474721 478711
      481703 485693 491675 492671 492664 489662 484663 480667
      475669 470671 468673 465674 462677 461683 462692 458700
      454707 446713 441723 439728 441730 444732 443737 431750
      430755 431757 432764 434768 433773 429777 420782 413789
      405794 402801 401808 402812 407817 414814 416811 418805
      421800 425796 429790 431786 433783 436785 437796 439799
      439803 438809 433811 431814 430816 432821 440825 444827
      446830 446834 444842 439851 431856 431859 433863 433866
      435868 439869 441870 447870 451868 456871 459881 465903
      470912 474920 480939 487942 491944 494949 500956 503960
      505965 510970 512968 513966 516966 521965
 0.01 504073 505065 503060 500057 498054 495049 493046 491045
      491048 492053 493060 495064 497068 499072 501077 502079
      503075 504073
 0.01 493886 491884 488882 486884 483887 481887 478887 476890
      475895 477899 478902 480902 484903 485899 487897 488894
      490891 491889 493886
 0.01 372720 371712 369706 367700 362695 357694 353694 348696
      344699 334709 330714 327719 321728 316738 306759 301767
      294775 290778 284781 274786 269787 263791 258792 255794
      250798 246800 243805 239809 238815 239822 242821 248813
      253808 260808 262809 261811 258815 261819 266821 279817
      282813 286810 291812 293814 294817 292821 289824 285829
      282831 271851 267862 265870 266876 267882 268885 269889
      270896 270900 269902 265911 262915 260920 250939 246945
      245948 242949 237951 233957 231963 234966 236968 235971
      235973 239974 242976 248977 253975 254981 247005 239013
      232024 229028 229035 232039 238042 242044 245042 248038
      249031 267982 274975 279963 283956 288945 290939 287937
      282939 280937 282934 285923 285910 284905 283901 285898
      289894 292889 300871 309849 322825 325814 331805 340787
      352767 355761 359755 363751 366744 368738 369732 372720
 0.25 529202 529199 529198 527196 526198 527201 528202 529202
 0.25 361736 358732 355730 350729 346732 340738 335745 326762
      317778 306794 304798 305802 308806 311806 312804 311800
      310797 313794 316792 319793 325790 332783 342768 353751
      361736 





Last Updated: 319 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015