THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...VALID 18Z MON NOV 24 2014 - 00Z WED NOV 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SE CWZA 25 SSE SMP 25 NNE CZK 15 SSW CZK 20 ENE SPB
30 ENE TDO 20 SSE SEA 15 E PAE 35 ENE BVS 60 SE CWZA.


...WA CASCADES...

A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN ISSUES FOR THE WA
CASCADES.  STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW PATRN TO THE SOUTH OF STG E/W
UPR JET WILL PROVIDE ANOMOLOUSLY STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT WITH MSTR STREAMING ACRS PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/NRN ROCKIES INTO TUES.  INITIAL WEAK S/WV MOVING INTO WRN
CANADA MON AFTN WILL PUSH E/W FRONTAL BNDRY SWD INTO WA STATE
WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL MON NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF RATHER
HIGH PWS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES POOLED ALONG THE BNDRY AND CONFLUENT
85H WLY FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PROVIDE STG MSTR FLUX VALUES OF
2 TO 3+ STD ABOVE NORMAL INTO WA/NRN OREGON REGION.  SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BNDRY WILL AIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY PCPN
ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ESPECIALLY WRN
WA WHERE OROGRAHPIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE QUITE STG. AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WA CASCADES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL WHICH COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES. 
FARTHER EAST...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THOUGH SOME OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAINS
WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO SNOW COVER..SO ANY RUNOFF ISSUES
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

SULLIVAN





Last Updated: 119 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014