The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Tue Sep 02 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 03 2014 - 00Z Fri Sep 05 2014

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of
the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Upper Great Lakes...

A front extending from the Northeast southwestward to the
Mid-Atlantic then westward to the Southern Plains will move off
the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening.  The
western portion of the boundary will lift northward to the Upper
Midwest as a warm front by Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along and near the boundary from the Northeast to the
Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley to parts of the
Southern Plains will likewise move eastward off the Northeast
Coast by Wednesday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will remain
over parts of the Carolinas into parts of the Central Gulf Coast
into Wednesday evening.  In addition, upper-level impulses
extending from the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast to the Central Gulf Coast Wednesday evening into
Thursday.

In the meantime, the western end of the front will lift northward
as a warm front from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. 
The boundary will merge with another front moving eastward out of
the Northern Rockies on Wednesday evening.  Along with the
northward moving front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
surge northward into the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday morning. 
The moisture and the lift provided by the boundary will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley that will move northward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday into Thursday
morning. 

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Plains/South-Central Canada by Thursday. 
The energy will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
into parts of the Northern Rockies on Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning.  The storm will produce an area of light to
moderate rain over parts of the Northern High Plains on Wednesday
moving into parts of the Northern Plains by Thursday.  Showers 
and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Thursday morning.   

Elsewhere, moisture associated with T. S. Dolly will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Western Gulf Coast
through Thursday.  T. S. Dolly is forecast to move into the East
Coast of Mexico overnight Tuesday.  See the latest NHC advisory
for the most current track and intensity.  Furthermore,
upper-level energy off the East Coast of Florida will move
westward to the Southern tip of Florida by Thursday.  The energy
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the area
through Thursday. 


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov




Last Updated: 409 PM EDT Tue Sep 02 2014