The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 22 2014 - 12Z Fri Oct 24 2014

...Heavy rains lie ahead for the Northwest, Northeast, and Florida
Keys...

Heavy precipitation continues along the Nation's fringes over the
next couple days.  Across the Northwest, strong onshore flow
imports moisture from the Pacific which becomes wrung out by the
mountains across the Pacific Northwest and the northern
Continental Divide.  By Friday morning, increased ridging aloft
across the region should be causing the precipitation to fade in
intensity.  Rainfall totals through late Friday are expected to be
in the 5-8" range per the WPC precipitation forecast, with locally
higher amounts possible.  This magnitude of rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.  Any snowfall should be confined to the highest
elevations of the Cascades.

Thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected near and ahead
of a weakening frontal zone moving across the Plains/Midwest.  The
system will not be able to lure much Gulf moisture due to the
circulation around a larger cyclone near the Northeast, which
should limit rainfall magnitude.  Across the Northeast, a
deepening occluded cyclone sends comma head-related heavy
rain/thunderstorms across the region into early Friday.  Later on
Friday, the cyclone pulls away from the region which should reduce
rainfall coverage and intensity.  The WPC precipitation forecast
advertises 3-5" of rainfall across New England through late
Friday, with locally higher total possible.  This magnitude of
precipitation could lead to flash flooding.

Across southern Florida and the Keys, thunderstorms with moderate
to heavy rainfall continue as the circulation and feeder bands
around Tropical Depression Nine intersect a stationary front to
its east-northeast.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 3" are
expected into late Friday, with locally heavier amounts expected. 
This degree of rainfall across the urban Keys could lead to flash
flooding.  See National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest
information of Tropical Depression Nine.

Roth

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov




Last Updated: 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014