THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1249 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID AUG 01/0000 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST... 

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


MEAN TROF CONTINUING TO ANCHOR THE EASTERN U.S.
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH 00Z/03
            00Z NAM...00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF BLEND AFTER 00Z/03
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST NORTH WITH THE COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE AND
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND ON SAT...COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z NAM/GFS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
BETTER IN KEEPING THE FRONT CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BUT LESS NORTH
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF. AFTER SAT...THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FORM A DECENT COMPROMISE AFTER ROUGHLY
00Z/03 WHILE THE 12Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR
OFFSHORE...LIKELY TIED TO A QUICKER UPPER LOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION.


WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED WITH A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.


MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-12Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE EVOLVING OUT
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z CMC...THE
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
WITH THE 12Z CMC SLOWER/SOUTH.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... 
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... 


OTTO





Last Updated: 1249 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014