MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
133 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
 
VALID NOV 21/0000 UTC THRU NOV 24/1200 UTC
 

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...    


00Z/21 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES...INCLUDING THE ECMWF


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...WAVE WASHING OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST...

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CLUSTERED NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE
DEVELOPED WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS...GEM GLOBAL...AND UKMET. 
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS...SO PREFER TO RELY ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.


...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 1...

THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER
RECENT GUIDANCE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS...GEM
GLOBAL...AND ECMWF CLUSTERING STRONGLY ON THE DETAILS OF ITS
PROGRESSION.


...WAVE SAILING INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST DAY LATE DAY 1...

THE NAM...ECMWF...AND UKMET CLUSTER MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
AND GEM GLOBAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE SPLIT BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED BY DAY 3 OVER THE PLAINS...WHERE THE GREAT SEPARATION
LEADS TO A SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.  THE NEW ECMWF
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...THOUGH
ANCHORED IN THE SLIGHTLY LARGER CONSENSUS...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS
ITS SOLUTION.


...COLD FRONT GRAZING THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA LATE DAY 3...

THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GEM
GLOBAL AND ECMWF WITH THIS BOUNDARY.  WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST BET JUST DOWNSTREAM...WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION HERE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...


CISCO