MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1210 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
 
VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/1200 UTC
 

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...


00Z/13 PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...DISJOINTED SYSTEM CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF

THE NAM HANDLES THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY TO THE GFS AND ECMWF UNTIL
LATE DAY 2...WHEN THE NAM SENDS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A MORE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION.  WILL RELY
ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS SUPPORTED BY THE
UKMET.


...TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LATER DAY 2...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/13 ECMWF

THE NAM AND UKMET HANDLE THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF DAY 3...WHEN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE DAKOTAS.  WITH THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...WILL AWAIT THE 00Z/13 ECMWF TO MAKE A
RECOMMENDATION.


...NEW SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEST LATER DAY 2...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF

THE NAM DIRECTS THIS IMPULSE CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET.


...WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A RELIABLE PAIR WHEN THEIR
SOLUTIONS ARE IN LINE AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE...SO WILL
RECOMMEND THEIR MASS FIELDS HERE.


...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... 


CISCO