MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1108 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008
 
VALID MAY 13/1200 UTC THRU MAY 17/0000 UTC
 
MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FORECASTS.
  

MODEL TRENDS...

...SYSTEM FROM GTLKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC D1/D2...
THE NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 5H TROF ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW AND
TRAILING BNDRY THRU THE GTLKS AND NORTHEAST.  

...CLOSED LOW EXITING THE SOUTHWEST D1/D2...
THE NAM IS CLOSELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT DOES EJECT THE MAIN VORT EWD
MORE SLOWLY ACROSS MO LATER ON D2.

...SFC LOW FROM MS VALLEY EWD D3...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED OVER KY AT 12Z/16...THE 00Z NAM RUN HAD THE SFC LOW OVER
DE AT THAT TIME.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.HTML...
 
   
...MODEL BIASES AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV...    

HEDGE