THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 30 2015 - 12Z FRI APR 03 2015

...OVERVIEW...

DIMINISHING RIDGING WILL CENTER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK
WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS STUCK IN THE EASTERN STATES. SYSTEM
PROGRESSION WILL BE TIED TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH SHOULD FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR
MODESTLY ABOVE AVERAGE NEARLY EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.


...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES WHICH
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY BY NATURE. IN ADDITION... THE NORTH PACIFIC
BECOMES AWASH IN ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT BY MIDWEEK WHICH TRANSLATES
INTO THE PAC NW THURS/FRI. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
MAY HANDLE THIS THE BEST... BUT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW LESS
VOLATILITY OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLES
THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND EVEN THE GFS MOSTLY CLUSTER
WITH THE ECENS MEAN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. PREFER TO STICK WITH
THE BETTER CONTINUITY AROUND THE ECENS MEAN WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WPC
CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CHANGES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AFTER A WARM START IN THE WEST... AND A SMATTERING OF FORECAST
NEAR RECORD HIGHS OR HIGH MINS MON/TUES... ANOMALIES SHOULD
SUBSIDE IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE BUT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT SETTLES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOWER MS VALLEY... AND SOUTHEAST.


FRACASSO





Last Updated: 104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015