Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0647Z Oct 30, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 30/1200 UTC THRU OCT 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWESTERN CA...

FOR THE MOST PART..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
EASTERN PACIFIC H5 TROF TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD..WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING SLOWLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN MORE STEADILY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN INITIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLY ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING..WHICH ALONG WITH THE SLOW HEIGHT
FALLS..SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAINS..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WA AND OR COASTS.  LATER THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH THE
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS..THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
MORE QUICKLY INLAND..HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED RAINS
FARTHER INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALSO INTO
NORTHWESTERN CA.  IN ADDITION TO THE MODEL MASS FIELD FORECASTS
BEING IN GOOD AGREEMENT..THEIR QPFS WERE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEM BUT WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS PER THE ARW..NMMB..NAM 12 AND ECMWF
HIRES.  HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS..WITH LESSER BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE WA CASCADES AND THE
COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHWESTERN OR/NORTHWESTERN CA.


...GREAT LAKES...

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THEIR HANDLING OF THE H5 S/WV NOW VICINITY OF NORTHERN
MANITOBA..WITH ALL TAKING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND CLOSING
IT OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SOME INCREASE IN
RAINS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY THRU THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT..WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN LAKES UNDER THE COLD
AIR ALOFT/INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE CLOSING OFF H5 LOW
AND STRENGTHENING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY LEE OF SUPERIOR.  HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL QPFS PREFERRED HERE..WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD
GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS AND SOME ISOLATED GREATER
THAN 0.50 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE..AND WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED HEAVY
SNOWS.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR SNOWFALL DETAILS.


THE ONLY OTHER AREAS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL SEE LIGHT RAINS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA..ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN BRANCH H5 S/WV AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE..AND THRU THE MID MS INTO THE MID/LOWER OH
VALLEYS..ASSOCIATED WITH A "MIDDLE" BRANCH H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 419637 423641 425645 424655 421663 417672 409686 397703
      392710 386719 377731 373738 367746 355760 350768 344775
      333786 308812 299827 296836 294845 292853 292866 285885
      282894 279904 277907 277912 279917 279923 281929 282935
      283945 283958 281962 277963 273961 272957 271943 271932
      268923 265915 266905 266898 266891 266878 264872 261872
      258864 256863 253864 250866 245865 244863 240860 239855
      242847 246839 251832 258826 269824 273824 275820 278811
      279807 278803 275799 274794 276788 279785 284779 291773
      298766 305763 311758 322741 331726 340710 344703 347696
      351688 356681 361673 367664 371659 375656 385648
 0.01 522267 522258 521248 517237 515229 515226 516223 521219
      527218 530216 534212 534205 532197 530191 526185 523180
      518176 513173 506171 501170 498172 495171 492171 490172
      485171 480175 476179 473186 468191 464191 460197 455199
      453201 451205 443211 437213 432216 428218 423221 419226
      417228 414228 408228 401227 394226 387226 377227 373230
      369233 365239 364245 364250 366253 370258 375260 377262
      378265 380273 376278 373281 371286 372289 373292 377294
      384295 394294 406292 416289 427286 437282 448279 459277
      470277 483282 489285 495289 501292 506292 510290 513287
      518277
 0.01 522926 522904 520898 518892 515887 513882 509876 507869
      503854 498842 496837 491831 488827 484824 474820 471806
      465794 461790 459786 452774 450766 448760 447756 446754
      441754 438755 437758 436760 434759 432757 430755 427760
      426767 426775 424782 421787 415797 413805 414812 414819
      416826 418834 419838 418843 415849 413852 408864 409871
      411876 414880 419882 426882 432884 439884 444887 452892
      455897 456900 456905 458913 462915 462933 462950 464954
      468955 470953 474952 479948 484945 488940 491937 494932
      494929 496925 500929 505933 509934 518934 522926
 0.01 459704 455702 452703 450706 445708 439711 438717 441721
      443723 444727 448729 451726 452718 455713 458707 459704
 0.01 412928 412916 409910 407907 408902 407894 402886 404882
      404878 402871 398869 395869 387871 386866 386861 388852
      388842 387838 385835 383834 380836 377842 373848 365860
      355870 343877 343883 345884 354884 359884 361885 360887
      356892 356903 358905 362905 367905 369905 370908 367914
      366923 366934 368936 370938 369941 368947 374952 380950
      393945 399941 405936 410932 412928
 0.01 319988 319982 315976 312972 306973 303974 299974 292974
      281978 277982 275987 276993 279997 286006 290010 294014
      298017 301017 303016 307013 311007 313994 313992 315990
      319988
 0.25 518260 518254 517248 514239 507219 503209 499201 498197
      494193 486193 479195 472198 464203 459207 451212 445215
      430221 427225 425230 422232 418233 409233 402235 398237
      394240 394248 399255 399258 397262 395266 393270 394276
      399281 402282 407282 415279 429274 444267 452265 459263
      468263 476265 485269 491276 498282 502284 506284 508282
      510277 513272 516266 518260
 0.25 477880 477872 476867 472858 469850 467846 466839 465828
      464821 462817 457811 450808 447810 444813 444817 446822
      449829 451840 448849 445856 443860 443866 446868 450869
      455869 458870 460875 461881 461894 462898 463902 465903
      468900 471896 474887 477880
 0.25 405663 403658 399655 391655 386657 381660 374667 368675
      363683 358692 353701 346720 342728 336737 314768 302783
      288796 286801 287804 289806 292807 294812 295818 299817
      304807 309799 316793 324786 330779 342765 348758 354749
      356745 358738 358734 359729 366720 371712 382697 395681
      402672 404668 405663
 0.50 513258 515255 514251 513245 511238 503220 499213 494207
      491205 486203 478203 471205 465209 451215 438221 429234
      425236 420235 413234 406236 403240 401244 408250 410252
      411256 410262 408265 403271 403275 409276 415274 428269
      455256 462255 469255 479258 485263 497275 499278 503279
      506277 506271 505264 505260 507259 510259 513258
 0.50 499250 497245 495241 493235 491232 489229 485225 482224
      477225 481229 483234 486237 491239 493243 495246 497250
      499250
 0.50 395668 394664 391663 385663 380666 376671 369680 363690
      358700 354712 356714 358715 363710 370702 377692 384683
      391674 395668
 0.50 344748 341745 336747 331753 326760 321767 317775 315779
      313783 314786 316786 320783 326778 331772 334768 336765
      340756 344748
 1.00 508251 509246 507243 506237 500225 498219 495216 492215
      481210 476211 473211 472214 466216 465219 467220 475214
      481216 485220 490224 493230 496236 499240 507250 508251
 1.00 502267 500263 498259 496254 494250 492245 488242 486243
      485245 487251 488255 491259 494264 497266 502267 502267
 1.00 481244 481239 481236 480232 477230 476230 473231 471233
      469235 468237 467242 469244 472245 476246 479246 481244
 1.00 441251 441246 439244 435241 429242 424243 421241 417241
      414240 412241 415243 421247 424253 424256 427258 432256
      436254 441251
 1.50 501235 500234 499232 498230 498229 497226 496224 495223
      494222 494223 494224 495225 495228 495229 496231 497232
      498234 498235 499236 501235
 1.50 479241 479238 479236 478233 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 473240 475241 477241 478241 479241
 2.00 477238 477237 476235 476236 476237 477238 477238