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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0658Z Oct 29, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 29/1200 UTC THRU OCT 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

FLAT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...LINGERING LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET
FORCING (DIFFLUENCE)...AND DEEP W-SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN AMOUNTS EARLY
TODAY (MAINLY THIS MORNING) ACROSS THE WA AND NORTHWEST OR COASTAL
AND CASCADE RANGES. AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN .25 AND .50+ INCH...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

LATER IN THE PERIOD (00-12Z 10/30)...THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
NRN PACIFIC WILL AMPLIFY AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS TO BACK MORE SSW-SW...AND THEREBY
DIRECT (CONFINE) THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND POSITIVE
PWAT ADVECTION TO ALONG THE WA AND OR COAST. DURING THIS TIME...QG
FORCING OVER THE PAC NW WILL BE MITIGATED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 110+ KT JET STREAK NUDGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS
A RESULT...ADDITIONAL PCPN AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AVERAGING LESS THAN .25 INCH.


...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA. 
THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ALONG THIS FRONT---WITH THE DAY
1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VA. LIGHTER TOTALS (LESS THAN .25 INCH)
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 554810 553797 552788 551781 550778 548773 547768 544760
      540753 537748 530747 526748 524745 520739 515735 513733
      509734 503733 495734 490736 484743 480748 480757 482764
      488768 491770 493773 493779 490782 487788 485796 483815
      486836 488844 492849 496853 500852 503850 514843 520839
      527836 534836 540837 544836 545834 549833 551830 553820
      554810
 0.01 533219 535210 534205 532194 528185 525173 523167 521162
      518161 515158 511154 505151 498145 486131 482129 475129
      471126 468124 464126 461123 458121 455115 457111 460111
      467113 472113 474109 472103 468105 462103 458102 455099
      451095 448096 431096 434104 428108 432110 434115 440112
      447117 449122 450129 448138 445141 441142 437144 436151
      436156 442162 446166 448170 449175 453176 454174 453170
      455167 461162 467165 470168 475169 480173 484174 486177
      490181 492186 494191 495196 495199 493201 490202 486203
      481202 474207 469209 463208 452205 446204 443205 439212
      435216 432218 425220 422222 419227 415229 411233 409238
      407241 408247 406253 397273 393284 394289 396293 398296
      403298 408298 413296 427288 435284 442281 483291 492291
      498284 502283 507286 513280 516276 517273 517260 517254
      516250 513237 509227 506222 506218 509217 524228 530225
      533219
 0.01 508651 507644 506637 503629 494618 483623 473635 463627
      457633 451639 446645 442652 437663 435666 433666 433660
      434652 433648 431645 428642 426642 416644 408647 396655
      390660 384668 375680 359702 349713 342724 340726 338731
      336738 333745 332753 330761 327767 316778 310782 307784
      303786 296789 290793 290795 293797 295795 299795 303795
      304798 301802 301805 300807 302810 311809 315809 315813
      312820 308834 296845 287836 282833 278833 275836 276852
      262849 247847 244852 243860 244865 246868 248873 258881
      262883 267884 276885 283887 283898 283919 283925 283936
      282945 282949 281954 280964 282973 283981 285989 293002
      296008 302006 303998 301992 319941 321931 323921 325914
      328906 333893 339878 343871 347866 354855 357849 362843
      372831 382819 386813 391806 395800 401795 407794 409794
      409798 413817 413826 415828 416825 420818 422809 427794
      430786 431783 433783 435775 437772 438766 440758 443756
      444751 448745 449741 449736 443739 439740 436739 440733
      441730 445728 447729 450727 454720 459714 463708 464703
      467699 471693 481679 484673 488671 492672 498672 500672
      504670 507661 508651
 0.01 500251 499246 497242 494236 490228 488225 484223 478219
      475220 472224 474227 478228 481232 482237 484237 488238
      490241 494247 496251 498252 500251
 0.01 484984 484976 484972 483970 481957 477952 474949 471951
      467957 466959 463958 461952 458947 455942 450935 447929
      445925 443923 441923 438926 438929 436933 437940 439952
      438958 438966 448986 450991 453995 456006 458011 461016
      465018 470016 472013 472009 470006 469999 467994 468986
      471984 473986 478987 482987 484984
 0.01 473882 469863 468859 467853 466848 464845 460825 460818
      461814 461808 462805 462793 459790 456789 454789 452792
      448798 445797 441798 434801 431802 429806 428810 428814
      428820 430823 436828 448831 452834 451839 446845 444846
      442844 440845 439851 437853 429854 424855 422857 419861
      422864 424865 431868 438868 450862 454860 458860 459867
      462876 463880 463886 461893 463902 465904 467909 469910
      469905 470898 470892 473882
 0.01 451080 451078 449077 448075 446072 445072 443072 444075
      446077 448078 449080 451080 451080
 0.01 429779 430774 429769 428760 428755 426752 423756 419761
      416767 412771 409776 409779 413778 414775 417773 421773
      425777 429779
 0.01 249806 248804 247804 245808 244811 243813 242816 241819
      243822 245821 246818 247815 248812 249808 249806
 0.25 515184 514183 513181 511180 510179 509178 508177 507176
      505176 505177 506178 508180 509182 510183 511184 512186
      514186 515184
 0.25 502647 502642 501637 498632 494628 489628 484631 480637
      475647 469658 463670 460676 461682 464682 467680 472675
      479665 482662 488658 499652 502647
 0.25 442264 439258 435258 433260 429264 425268 421272 416275
      413279 415281 417280 423278 427276 432273 437270 441266
      442264
 0.25 427247 428245 428243 428241 426241 424239 423239 421240
      419242 419245 420246 421247 423248 425248 427247 427247
 0.25 416662 415658 413657 407660 397668 387677 380686 372697
      365708 353728 341750 338756 336762 338764 343761 359743
      376724 384715 392705 399695 406684 412673 416662
 0.25 395780 395779 393779 392780 394782 395780 395780
 0.25 394782 392780 390782 390783 388784 388785 387787 386788
      387790 389788 389787 390786 392785 392784 394782
 0.25 368770 367765 364763 361764 355772 349780 344788 338797
      334806 334810 335813 339811 345803 350795 356786 363779
      366775 368770
 0.25 339860 338856 336858 333862 332866 330870 328875 327881
      329881 330879 332874 334870 335867 338863 339860
 0.25 331846 330841 329839 324842 317853 310864 306859 302858
      298859 292860 290862 288866 286872 285876 287879 293882
      301882 306884 309884 312882 319871 326859 328854 330846
      331846
 0.25 278873 277873 275872 274872 273873 273876 274876 276875
      277874 278873
 0.50 409671 409667 407666 403670 395677 381692 375699 369709
      358725 352734 348744 343752 343756 347753 360738 368730
      374723 387707 399691 404681 409671
 1.00 375715 375712 373713 370716 368717 367719 365721 363724
      362727 361730 361732 364731 366729 368727 369725 371722
      373720 374717 375715
 1.00 360734 359733 358734 357734 356735 355737 354738 354739
      355741 356739 357739 358737 359736 359734 360734