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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0659Z Apr 26, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 26/1200 UTC THRU APR 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY STELLAR ACRS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MRNG AS MOST COMPLETELY MISSED OR UNDERPERFORMED WITH MCS
THAT DVLPD ACRS THE UPR TX COASTAL AREA THIS MRNG.  THIS SYSTEM
APPEARED TO BE PARTIALLY TIED TO JET STREAK THAT PUSHED ACRS NRN
MEX/S TX REGION THIS MRNG.  EXPECT REMNANTS OF MCS TO QUICKLY MOVE
ACRS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION THIS EVENING FEEDING OFF OF
RESIDUAL AFTN CAPE ENERGY AHEAD OF IT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY
FROM MRNG ACTIVITY ACRS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE PSBL ALONG THE CNTL/ERN GULF COAST ON SUN AS ZONE OF
HIER PWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS THE NRN GULF AND LEFT OVER
MESO BNDRIES/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE HELPING TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. 
STAYED RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND LIGHT WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH
LACK OF UPR TRIGGER AND GENLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

UPR LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SHEER EWD
ACRS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/CNTL APLCNS REGION BEFORE MOVING OF THE
MID ATLC COAST SUN MRNG.  DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO OVERALL DOWNTREND IN PCPN AMOUNTS WITH
TIME.  THE BETTER UVVS SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD THIS EVENING
TOWARD PARTS OF ERN KY AND THE CNTL APLCNS REGION CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BNDRY WHERE AFTN CLEARING MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF REMNANT VORT ENERGY PUSHING ESEWD ACRS THE
AREA.  THE NAM WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS ACRS
THIS AREA PARTLY DUE TO MODEL FCST SOUNDS DVLPG A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY AND HIER LOW LEVEL MSTR ACRS THIS AREA BY LATE SAT
AFTN/EVENING.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN CONSENSUS...SO SOME MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WAS PREFERRED
HEREWITH LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GLOB/UKMET SUPPORTING AMOUNTS SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z EC WITH .50 TO NEARLY 1 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FROM ERN
KY INTO SW VA/NE TN/WRN NC AND EXTREME SRN WV. 


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CNTL/NRN HI PLAINS...

STG JET ENERGY DIVING SEWD ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A HIGH AMPLIFIED UPR TROF ACRS THE GT BASIN WITH
GENL AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
REGION ON SUN WHILE TURNING MORE EWD LATER IN THE DAY.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTIC-WISE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE 5H CENTER..WITH THE 00Z EC A TAD ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT
OTHERWISE CLUSTERED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN CENTER.  THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES LIFTING
NEWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX DRIVING ACRS SRN CA INITIALLY THAT
WILL BE COME INTO PLAY TO HELP FOCUS THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
PARTICULARLY ACRS THE HI PLAINS THE ROCKIES.  S/WV LIFTING NEWD
THRU ERN MT THIS EVENING WHILE HELP SHOVE PAC COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS THOUGH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATRN WILL KEEP FRONT
FROM MAKING MUCH FURTHER EWD PROGRESS THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
INCREASING SEWD FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD
THRU THE NCNTL STATES WILL INCREASE MSTR FLUX INTO THE STALLED
FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WEAK
INSTABILITY/CAPE DVLPG FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN SD... POTNL WILL
EXIST FOR MDT CONVECTIVE RAINS TO DVLP AND PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER
ISOLD AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE HI RES NAM IS QUITE HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS HERE
AND WHILE CAN'T COMPLETE RULE OUT POTNL FOR HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
CELLS...EXPECT ANY RUNOFF CONCERNS TO BE RATHER ISOLD GIVEN PWS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.  BY LATE SUN...EXPECT THE MORE
ORGANIZED PCPN TO SHIFT SWD INTO CO WITH INCREASING UPR LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT UPR QUAD OF UPR LOW AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN 85H ELY UPSLOPE FLOW.  FARTHER WEST...GENLY AGREED WITH
CONSENSUS OF MODELS IN SUPPORTING .50 TO NEARLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACRS THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE TRACK OF UPR VORT ACRS
THE AREA AND MODEST 85H/7H SW FLOW INTO THE REGION.  WITH MINOR
EXCEPTIONS...MANUAL QPF PROG CLOSELY FOLLOWED CONTINUITY GIVEN
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT.  SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN/ROCKIES REGION ...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE WASATCH...SW CO MTNS AND TETONS.   PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 562043 563035 564027 564011 564996 564990 560988 554984
      547986 540989 535993 523001 514000 510000 508998 513991
      517985 521978 523970 520968 517967 515965 512969 500979
      478999 472004 467011 464013 459012 449012 416009 398007
      393006 388008 385007 383002 380984 378974 377969 375966
      368954 361949 358947 356944 351927 345910 341902 338901
      334904 333913 332919 330921 328919 323921 321924 322926
      324936 322941 320943 313946 307950 300954 295960 291966
      287973 280985 287988 289993 293995 297995 300996 299001
      296002 290006 286012 287017 289018 300019 306016 314014
      318012 323012 334013 339018 342021 342026 342030 341034
      337040 335045 333048 325052 321057 316065 315077 313085
      311088 310093 310098 312103 313107 317108 322113 328117
      333121 339126 345130 347132 349127 359127 362127 365129
      369131 371135 373139 376137 380137 383134 388128 394124
      397124 400126 407128 413125 419122 422120 425123 425129
      430126 435121 441124 439134 439141 440144 448150 455152
      464153 469153 474154 480158 490170 505175 508177 512179
      514177 516173 515161 514155 512152 510148 506147 504145
      500144 488131 483129 480125 478123 476118 476111 475106
      475101 474097 464086 462082 463077 468070 477058 482050
      485041 488035 490025 507022 510023 510026 512030 515041
      517063 518075 519079 521083 525089 528095 531098 534096
      539093 545089 548087 551083 556064 562043
 0.01 486305 505320 512317 516299 517275 514254 513249 510242
      508234 507228 503223 498219 493217 488217 482215 469212
      463213 459217 458224 460226 460230 452238 448244 447246
      444247 436252 432257 430260 439268 443270 444273 448278
      451290 453298 455304 460308 465310 471311 474311 476309
      480306 484304 486305
 0.01 501666 500652 497643 496637 494633 489630 464644 458650
      456652 457658 457665 454668 447670 444671 441674 437681
      434689 433692 431696 432701 430705 428708 424710 420711
      418713 415720 417722 421723 424731 435737 442741 440745
      439749 440755 443754 445752 449751 452753 456752 461748
      466740 467734 470729 471725 474718 487709 491703 495696
      498688 500680 501666
 0.01 487233 488231 488228 487226 487225 486224 484223 483222
      481222 479223 477223 476225 475227 477229 478229 480229
      481231 481232 483233 484234 486234 487233
 0.01 435770 434765 431766 427767 424769 421775 418783 414788
      414800 416803 419804 421802 423799 425791 429784 432778
      435770
 0.01 382702 381693 380685 378682 373681 367682 364685 359688
      355691 351695 348699 346703 344709 341718 339723 335727
      329735 326746 322756 323769 327800 330810 332815 336819
      338823 340825 343825 347823 351826 354839 359839 361836
      373819 378810 378804 374801 369801 364804 359812 357814
      353814 350809 347798 344784 343769 344757 346756 347759
      348763 352768 356772 363778 372781 376781 379776 379763
      379747 379742 378733 377719 382702
 0.01 388783 387783 385784 382786 380789 378791 377794 377796
      379796 380793 382791 384791 385788 387785 388783
 0.01 314879 314865 312854 310829 307801 303800 303793 301783
      298778 294777 291780 285781 281787 283791 284798 283804
      280808 277810 275815 275819 275825 278830 278836 275846
      274857 275870 276882 277886 278893 276904 273914 271923
      268933 266943 266948 270946 274939 278929 279925 281923
      282927 282932 284935 288939 292939 296937 299933 299922
      298911 297905 295901 297896 298891 297880 299878 301880
      303884 307892 309892 311888 314879
 0.25 550055 551039 552031 551023 549018 546015 537014 532015
      530018 532029 533036 533042 531055 532069 534075 536075
      543070 548063 550055
 0.25 507279 507274 506271 502263 498256 493251 482239 477235
      471236 467245 462248 457254 458264 459275 461283 465290
      468291 470291 476288 483288 491290 494289 497286 507279
 0.25 483692 483691 482690 481688 480688 479686 477685 475686
      475687 474689 474690 473693 474695 473697 473698 473700
      474700 475701 477700 479699 480699 481698 482697 483695
      483694 483692
 0.25 494003 492000 489000 483005 473014 464023 459029 454033
      450034 446034 440033 436034 431034 423033 420034 417038
      414039 410039 402039 394037 388033 383027 380021 377013
      375006 374998 373987 371979 367971 363963 356951 352944
      350941 347938 341936 337935 334936 325947 319952 315957
      313960 313967 314970 314975 313982 315988 321993 328997
      333001 338006 342011 346016 353031 354035 353039 351048
      350056 348065 350073 355079 361082 367086 380087 385087
      387085 390083 394084 401081 406078 413076 418077 420080
      425086 428086 429083 431079 434077 439074 453081 455077
      457068 473039 482028 488015 492008 494003
 0.25 457106 458101 457097 455094 454092 450090 447090 444091
      445095 446097 448099 450102 452105 454107 457106
 0.25 415102 415101 413100 411100 410099 409101 409102 411103
      413104 415103 415102
 0.25 370729 369718 368713 365711 361712 358714 354719 350727
      350736 354742 359745 361749 365751 369748 370743 369734
      370729
 0.25 353117 352112 350108 351099 355093 353088 350086 343080
      334080 330081 326084 326089 327093 332101 337108 342114
      345117 350118 353117
 0.25 309981 309977 307975 305973 303972 299972 297973 295975
      294977 292981 291983 292985 293987 297989 301988 303987
      305985 307983 309981
 0.25 291891 292885 292878 291872 290866 288864 284865 283871
      283877 284883 284889 284896 286898 289895 291891
 0.50 546044 546039 546035 542034 541035 539038 537041 536045
      535048 535053 535056 537061 538063 540062 542060 543056
      544052 545046 546044
 0.50 484271 483268 481266 480264 477262 474260 470261 468263
      467265 466270 467272 469275 472274 475273 477272 479272
      482271 484271
 0.50 471034 470030 468028 464032 459037 455039 451040 447039
      441038 437041 429041 423043 418045 418060 431066 437067
      445067 453059 458054 460052 461047 469037 471034
 0.50 416066 417063 416060 414055 414052 411049 408048 397046
      390042 383036 378028 374018 372010 369985 366974 362967
      351952 348948 345946 337942 333943 329947 323953 320957
      320960 320963 323968 321973 319976 317981 318985 321988
      329991 336997 343003 346006 349010 352020 355027 357032
      358040 356051 357056 360058 363061 361063 358064 357068
      358074 362072 365070 369070 372072 374075 375081 378082
      381081 383077 389070 391066 394064 403060 407061 410064
      414067 416066
 0.50 364731 365728 365726 364724 363724 362722 360723 359725
      358726 358727 357730 357731 357732 358734 360735 361735
      363733 364731 364731
 0.50 343105 344100 343098 342094 340091 339090 335088 335092
      335095 336097 338100 340102 341104 343105
 1.00 391050 382042 377037 374032 367021 367017 367012 365006
      362999 362994 363984 362978 361973 359970 355967 350964
      345967 341971 336975 332974 330972 326973 323977 321979
      320983 323985 327985 332983 336983 338985 342990 349998
      358009 359011 358015 356019 361031 367041 368046 367050
      366052 370053 375055 381058 384057 386054 391050
 1.50 385052 386049 385047 383046 378043 375039 371034 367030
      363025 361023 361026 364032 368036 370041 371048 375053
      381055 385052
 1.50 359983 359976 357972 353970 350969 346970 344973 342978
      344982 347984 350989 352991 354993 357992 358987 359983
 2.00 382051 382049 381048 379047 379046 378046 376045 375044
      374044 373046 373048 374049 376051 377051 379052 381052
      382051
 2.00 356983 357980 357978 357976 356974 355973 353972 352972
      350972 348973 347974 346974 345976 345978 346980 348982
      350983 351984 353985 355984 356983