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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0651Z Oct 31, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 31/1200 UTC THRU NOV 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN INTO CA AND WESTERN PARTS OF NV...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC..WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
STATES AND STRONGER S/WV ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND MAINLY IMPACTING CA INTO NV ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS REINFORCING
SHOT OF ENERGY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR PIX AT THIS TIME
VICINITY OF 35-40N/140W..WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELD FORECASTS DOING
A VERY GOOD JOB WITH IT.  GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS/FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND A SLUG OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH
PWS THAT WILL BE DRAWN WELL INLAND INTO CA..EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THRU MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA..AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGES.  OVERALL..THE QPF DISTRIBUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR
AMONG THE LATEST MODELS..WITH THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
MEAN USED BUT WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.  SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA..PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS. 
FARTHER NORTH..UP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST..WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MUCH
OF WA AND OR INT WESTERN ID.


EASTERN GREAT LAKES..MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE VERY STRONG H5 VORT NOW VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD THIS PERIOD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING..WITH CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION INTO A CLOSED H5 CENTER BY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFYING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION..GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE/PWS
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE EAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THERE IS
NO CHANCE OF ANY RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.  STUCK CLOSE TO
THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF AGAIN SINCE MOST OF THE
GLOBAL AND HIRES QPFS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR.  SOM EARLY SEASON HEAVY
WET SNOWS LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS..PLEASE SEE THE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS FOR
DETAILS.


...SOUTH TX...

FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT
THRU SOUTHERN TX WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THRU THE DAY FRIDAY.  SOME VARIABILITY WITH
QPF DETAILS CONTINUED AMONG THE LATEST MODELS..WITH THE HIRES
MODELS AGAIN A BIT MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO
BIAS CORRECTED MEAN FOR DETAILS GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS..WITH LESS WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE HIRES SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
CELLS WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 541178 541173 540167 537157 535154 531153 524151 519150
      516151 509154 497157 492157 488156 483155 478153 476151
      473152 467153 460154 454157 447160 441164 434166 425167
      412164 404165 396165 389164 384159 376157 369160 363165
      359167 354168 350166 346165 336163 327161 324160 321163
      319167 319172 319177 321180 324187 331199 330209 331214
      333217 339222 343230 356238 362243 368247 373248 375251
      384253 404260 411261 419262 427263 434262 435259 436255
      439254 443255 450255 456257 461259 468263 475266 484269
      488271 490274 498279 503281 505274 506268 502258 498251
      493246 488240 485237 484234 498233 519214 523215 525217
      531219 534216 535210 536201 536196 541178
 0.01 480797 478788 475782 470778 465771 463764 461758 460756
      457753 452750 446751 441754 435758 430763 421770 418771
      415773 407775 394779 384781 376780 355774 350770 350766
      353765 364760 371757 376756 382759 388761 391762 394762
      401760 405755 409746 410739 411731 412724 413718 420708
      424703 430697 444677 452666 460652 462646 461638 457634
      453633 446633 438635 432635 424638 419640 414640 400644
      393647 387651 382657 376662 359678 349687 345691 339695
      338698 334699 330704 325707 322712 317716 313721 309726
      304733 297743 293746 290751 284760 283766 283770 280773
      271780 262790 253798 247803 244809 242822 243831 246834
      249836 253835 256833 258830 263819 264814 267808 278801
      284802 290805 296807 304806 310806 318805 325804 330806
      331810 331815 334822 336828 341833 342836 341840 343849
      349860 354864 360862 369860 372859 374860 375862 394872
      399874 404878 410878 416879 423880 431880 438879 445876
      451873 455874 457876 460882 461889 463894 465898 468893
      470885 469879 467870 465861 464852 463842 463837 464834
      467827 471822 475816 477811 479806 480797
 0.01 397083 394075 389070 385072 382069 380065 377062 371058
      367057 365053 359053 356055 352055 354057 362060 360064
      358067 357069 359073 357082 353086 352089 351094 352097
      358096 365093 373096 376100 378098 380091 382088 386088
      390084 393085 397083 397083
 0.01 298027 298020 298013 297004 296996 295992 291983 286975
      283972 279969 274967 269967 263967 260970 259976 257977
      254976 244975 240976 236978 232981 230985 232990 235993
      240001 244004 248006 256010 270021 277026 280025 285026
      293031 298027
 0.25 530202 531192 530183 528174 525169 519164 514164 508166
      503168 497169 493175 491183 491191 490196 488200 483203
      473207 467210 462212 451215 438218 433219 429219 427221
      427224 430227 435227 448225 454223 457223 460224 466223
      472222 486224 491224 494222 497218 499203 501201 504200
      510201 517203 523203 528203 530202
 0.25 460175 461171 460168 457167 455168 453169 451171 448172
      447175 446179 448181 452181 454180 456178 458177 460175
 0.25 463797 462794 459790 454788 441786 433785 427784 423783
      419784 414787 407791 402792 386795 372791 366791 359792
      350795 346800 345809 348816 351822 351831 351841 354844
      356843 362849 368849 376848 383846 394839 400836 403836
      406838 409839 414838 420837 435832 442828 447826 458817
      461812 462807 463797
 0.25 443654 433653 425650 414650 405654 396661 389668 376683
      362699 348714 340722 334728 326735 320742 306757 301763
      295771 291776 291780 293781 298782 301785 311787 318786
      323784 331778 337771 351756 359748 367744 374741 378741
      388743 394742 398738 402727 404716 408705 418688 424680
      431670 438662 442659 443654
 0.25 437187 437184 433181 425181 420183 415186 389188 380186
      375184 367180 359181 352182 348181 339170 335172 335174
      335181 337188 337196 337205 340212 349221 354227 359230
      366233 372234 380234 385232 397229 404230 410229 416227
      418223 417218 416215 416210 419204 428197 434192 437187
 0.25 432871 431867 429866 426865 424865 421863 417863 414864
      411866 409868 410871 412873 416874 419874 423874 426874
      430873 432871
 0.25 407806 406803 404802 403802 401803 400804 399806 399807
      398809 398811 398812 399814 400816 401816 402816 404814
      404813 405812 406810 406808 407807 407806
 0.25 377078 377076 377073 377071 376070 375069 375068 373067
      371068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374079 376079
      377078
 0.25 288002 288995 287991 285987 283983 281980 276980 274984
      275989 277994 279997 281001 286003 288002
 0.25 269007 267003 264000 261998 257996 253995 249994 248995
      250998 253001 256003 260005 264007 267009 269007
 0.50 523189 524182 522175 517171 512171 507172 502176 498179
      497182 498185 502189 508192 515194 520194 523189
 0.50 455806 455803 454801 453801 451801 450801 449802 448803
      447804 447806 446807 447809 449810 450810 452810 454809
      454808 455807 455806
 0.50 423665 422661 419659 410660 401664 395669 384681 374693
      362704 351716 340728 329739 319750 315755 310762 308766
      307771 312776 315777 320776 328772 334767 339762 350751
      356746 362741 369736 377732 384728 389723 397707 415682
      421673 423669 423665
 0.50 414222 413219 410217 407213 404210 403205 404198 401197
      390196 371186 365183 359183 355185 352188 352191 355193
      361194 365202 366207 364209 359210 355208 354206 353202
      351199 348197 345196 343197 341202 343207 347211 351213
      357221 361225 367227 372227 377226 384219 389218 395221
      405226 410226 414222
 0.50 420870 419868 417868 417870 419871 420870
 0.50 391827 387824 383823 379822 376820 375817 375813 377808
      378805 376803 373802 369802 365800 360799 356802 355807
      359809 364809 368813 368816 365820 361825 358832 357838
      360838 365834 371833 383834 389833 391827
 1.00 411673 408672 404674 400677 392685 388691 385695 375702
      365709 357717 349727 343735 327753 325759 329763 335760
      339757 347748 355740 365733 373726 381717 386707 389700
      392695 400686 404684 407681 411673
 1.00 392205 390203 386202 384202 383203 384204 387208 390208
      393208 392206 392205
 1.00 377194 373190 369186 366186 365187 364189 366191 370194
      375197 377198 377194
 1.50 369721 369716 366716 363717 361718 359720 357723 355726
      354728 353731 354735 355735 357733 359731 362729 364727
      366725 367723 369721