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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1857Z Jul 22, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING THE CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TO THE EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM..VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC..SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM FL AND GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  12Z RAOB DATA AND BLENDED TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF MID AFTERNOON SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES AROUND 2.25
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN SC COAST INTO NC AND THE OUTER BANKS. 
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY
MUCH IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY.  THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  WHILE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS...THE COASTAL AREAS
OF NC AND SC WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED AND WHERE A
WEAK/POORLY DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE TO HELP FOCUS
ACTIVITY.  HERE..AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN
INCH ARE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT..ALL OF
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS.  PCPN AMOUNTS
OVER THE FL PENINSULA WERE TRIMMED BACK A BIT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT
22/18Z LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAFL IN THE SHORT TERM
THERE.

...GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST...

A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING A DIGGING H5 TROF SHOULD FOCUS
INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER GREATS BACK INTO THE MIDWEST
GIVEM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
H5 RIDGE/BACKSIDE OF THE H5 TROF AIDING IN LARGE SCALE LIFT. 
BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED PWS HAD INCREASED
TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SOME BRIEFLY
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE.  OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE.  LEANED TOWARDS THE HEAVIER QPFS IN THE
MIDWEST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

THE H5 TROF DIGGING FROM OFF THE B.C. COAST TO OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS PERIOD WILL PULL ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WV ENERGY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS
UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION..WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 1 PERIOD.  MODEL QPFS REMAINED
IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFERED IN THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.  AS A RESULT...STILL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THEIR BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN..INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND ECMWF HIRES.


...PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX...

THE AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TX WAS ANONYMOUSLY
MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING SOME 125 TO 150 PCT
OF NORMAL ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES.  CONVECTION
WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF A MID LEVEL
HIGH...AS WELL AS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM...AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SLOW...STILL THINK ISOLATED PROBLEMS DUE TO RUNOFF WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN...MAY RESULT GIVEN
SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 549121 551104 550097 548089 545083 545075 541063 538056
      535052 532048 525041 522038 516035 512034 510032 502028
      498026 492024 484020 456009 452007 447006 444007 442009
      439013 435016 433018 429018 422021 412037 407037 402038
      394043 392043 387047 378046 369048 362050 354054 352053
      352050 356049 358045 358041 361036 363034 364029 363025
      359022 354024 344026 335030 332033 331036 329041 329048
      327054 325058 322063 320065 317065 315065 316069 318074
      317079 313087 308092 303092 302088 301082 300078 294070
      288066 285064 285061 289058 297053 296050 290049 280050
      275047 270047 258048 255046 251047 247046 244042 242039
      237039 234041 234046 234051 232057 234061 237065 241071
      247076 260084 279092 286099 291106 302112 313114 318114
      321112 328108 334103 337104 341107 344106 345103 346097
      349095 353094 359094 364094 365093 364090 359082 361075
      365073 370075 372078 376083 382083 387088 389086 390081
      392075 393068 396068 396071 398077 397082 401076 403074
      405068 410068 412064 413060 416060 421060 435061 446075
      450075 451073 449065 451053 451046 451043 454043 459046
      462050 465054 467060 467065 470073 474074 477072 481069
      483071 478079 476084 476092 474098 472101 458106 457111
      459114 459118 458120 455122 451124 449129 446133 445140
      442144 438146 436150 438151 439155 433167 428163 427167
      425169 421171 422176 420181 424183 422186 417186 413188
      405191 408192 412191 417192 421190 427192 433186 435183
      437179 439178 442179 444183 439189 428203 425208 423208
      422206 418202 415200 411202 416203 418206 418209 419214
      422215 424218 417227 419230 418234 412241 408245 405249
      400256 401260 403262 411264 425268 440259 444257 448260
      450266 450271 451277 452284 458290 468291 476289 480285
      486280 489273 494274 499276 502279 507280 514277 517273
      519266 519261 517255 515250 516242 517234 519229
 0.01 519229 526227 529226 532222 534216 535211 533201 530190
      531183 530178 528172 526169 522167 519164 509148 503141
      501136 502129 509107 514098 515093 519091 523091 526093
      529101 533112 536121 539125 544126 549121
 0.01 537746 536737 535733 533725 531719 528713 525709 523706
      519704 516703 512706 507708 503711 496716 490722 484727
      478733 474737 471736 472733 476724 482710 484705 485700
      485689 483684 485680 489670 490655 489649 485650 478653
      474655 471659 458674 448685 440699 429715 417726 412733
      408736 404740 399743 395747 391755 387761 385765 379766
      376767 373772 370776 368782 368787 364791 359790 359788
      362781 364772 365762 366757 364755 365749 367746 368742
      368737 365734 363729 362726 359725 355726 340737 328747
      321755 314760 308765 305767 300768 284775 269782 252790
      249796 243804 242815 248821 250824 254827 263827 271831
      280832 288831 291833 296832 301833 305831 314827 317829
      319832 321836 320839 313836 308835 306837 301842 302857
      304863 304870 304876 301879 296874 294871 289869 282866
      277865 275869 268883 262901 260909 257918 257921 259925
      262931 266939 269942 275943 282943 284944 285947 285951
      283954 282960 282964 281966 276975 274978 273982 280985
      286980 291975 296970 300965 309950 317935 321928 325917
      332909 337904 343902 346902 346905 344914 340936 341939
      343941 347949 352956 355960 358961 374967 382970 384969
      384965 381954 380949 380945 382945 386947 389946 393943
      394938 395933 398931 401929 404926 412910 426877 430870
      436862 446851 453847 458845 463844 473843 482845 492847
      495849 500848 505847 508844 513838 522826 529809 531797
      533787 535776 534760 537746
 0.01 500253 499252 498250 498249 497247 496246 496244 495243
      494243 495245 495246 496248 497249 497250 498253 499253
      500253
 0.01 472738 471736 469737 468739 470740 471739 472738
 0.01 468177 468172 468170 467167 465164 463162 461166 460170
      463173 463176 462181 462183 460188 461192 464191 466189
      467184 467180 468177
 0.01 409110 410098 406100 404104 400104 396108 391112 383117
      379123 376130 384125 388125 390121 393116 397115 402109
      405110 407112 409110
 0.01 345818 344816 344814 342813 342814 341815 340817 340819
      339819 338821 338823 339825 340827 342826 343825 343823
      343821 345818
 0.25 539089 540086 539083 539082 537081 537080 536080 534079
      532078 531078 529078 528079 527079 526080 525081 526083
      526084 527085 529087 530087 532088 533089 535090 537090
      538090 539089
 0.25 529748 528739 527734 525728 522726 518725 513727 506732
      501740 499745 498750 497762 494771 488793 487805 487818
      489824 491828 495830 499830 506825 511819 516810 520801
      526780 528768 528756 529748
 0.25 504239 505233 505228 503219 499211 499203 499199 496196
      492195 488194 481196 477197 471201 466205 460207 455210
      449213 441211 438211 435215 435218 436220 438229 440231
      441236 438241 433244 430250 431253 434256 445253 452250
      458249 462254 463261 463267 467268 473266 479261 482257
      487253 489255 492255 489247 489244 487242 482235 481232
      482228 484225 487225 492229 499239 502241 504239
 0.25 474692 468684 466685 461688 457691 454695 450701 439718
      434725 430733 428738 425741 418748 412756 410765 407776
      403785 397792 391796 383803 381807 380813 379825 377835
      376840 378843 380842 384833 388824 390820 391816 393811
      397810 400811 403814 405815 407814 410810 411803 412800
      415801 419804 421805 424804 426799 427795 428789 426785
      427779 429776 435768 442761 447754 450745 469711 473700
      474692
 0.25 469130 469127 467127 463131 460137 457135 453139 450146
      448153 449155 451156 455152 459148 462143 465137 469132
      469130
 0.25 445038 445034 444031 442029 438030 437031 434033 433035
      433037 434041 436043 439043 441042 444041 445038
 0.25 429848 429841 428837 425836 422837 416842 411844 405848
      401854 394865 389871 383875 379881 377886 369898 364903
      360907 356915 353923 353932 355937 358940 360943 364950
      370953 374953 375950 375942 373931 374925 377919 379917
      382916 383918 385922 388924 392923 394920 396915 400907
      403899 409887 422862 429848
 0.25 365822 363818 359821 356824 354828 351833 350837 350840
      353838 357835 359832 362828 364825 365822
 0.25 356752 357748 356744 352741 346742 343744 338748 335752
      328759 315774 308780 299785 293787 286789 282790 277792
      273795 276798 285801 304806 310807 314807 320804 323801
      330794 335786 347770 356752
 0.25 347851 348845 346841 339844 336851 333859 332865 331876
      330880 331883 335882 338880 341875 344866 346859 347851
 0.25 346048 345046 344048 345048 346048 338089 337086 336084
336083
      334082 332081 331081 330083 331086 332087 333088 333089
      335090 337090 338089
 0.25 311926 312921 311917 308916 304917 303913 303909 306903
      307900 305898 300900 298899 295900 295904 294906 291907
      288905 285904 284913 285920 285929 286936 293935 295929
      298931 298939 300942 303942 307937 309932 311926
 0.25 288822 287818 284816 277814 271811 267805 259804 253808
      256816 261819 268822 276823 283824 288822
 0.25 267070 266068 266067 264066 262065 260064 259064 257065
      258067 260069 260070 262070 263071 265071 267070
 0.50 525754 524748 523742 520738 516740 514742 510747 507754
      505761 503770 501778 496794 494810 495814 496817 500819
      503818 508813 512807 518794 522778 524768 524760 525754
 0.50 493217 494207 494203 492201 483201 473206 466209 456216
      452218 449222 449226 453227 457229 462230 459233 449237
      441244 438248 440250 444250 451247 457245 461242 464237
      468235 470240 475243 479243 479238 469231 467230 464230
      462228 465227 474222 481219 489219 493217
 0.50 467704 466699 463701 455707 449712 443718 437726 435730
      435733 436736 443735 451730 458724 463715 466707 467704
 0.50 437756 438753 436751 435752 433753 431754 430755 428757
      427760 427761 427762 427765 428764 429764 431763 432762
      433761 434760 435758 437756 437756
 0.50 410859 408853 404856 398864 392873 387881 376898 369907
      364914 360918 360922 360926 361932 364936 365942 366945
      369946 372946 373943 372936 370930 370922 372916 375911
      378907 381907 387914 391915 393913 396908 399899 402885
      403879 405875 409866 410859
 0.50 344757 341755 336760 327769 319779 309787 297793 294795
      297798 302800 310800 318798 323795 327790 334780 342768
      344762 344757
 0.50 273818 271816 268814 266813 264811 262809 260808 257809
      257813 259816 261817 264819 266820 270820 273818
 1.00 481211 479210 478210 477211 475212 477213 479213 480213
      481211 481211