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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1823Z Sep 15, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 16/0000 UTC THRU SEP 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WRN
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...FLORIDA AND THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH TUES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE... THOUGH THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION INVOF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND WHERE 2+INCH PW AXIS IS LOCATED. THE MAIN LOCATION ON
TUES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE FROM THE COASTAL SC/GA TO THE
FL PANHANDLE. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS WITH
THE INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL STREAK DOWNSTREAM
AND SWEEP THROUGH THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY LATE MON/EARLY
TUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT TO WORK
WITH BUT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
RE-ENFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST FORCING
NEAR THE ERN LAKES... WHILE SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUES AFTN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. 

SOUTHWEST

ON TUES... THE INITIAL ANOMALOUS SURGE OR PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM PAC TROPICAL ENTITY ODILE WILL
BEGIN TO REACH AZ/NM FOR PREDECESSOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
GUIDANCE CLEARLY SHOWS A WEST TO EAST VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND THIS IS THE LOCATION FOR POSSIBLY
ENHANCED DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC QPF. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
WILL BECOME MORE OF A QPF ISSUE WED AND THURS INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE MED RANGE PERIOD FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SWRN QUAD
OF THE COUNTRY.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 501243 500240 499236 499232 499229 497225 494223 493221
      490220 488221 487224 489228 491229 493232 494235 496238
      497240 499243 501243
 0.01 494687 492682 488680 485678 480678 476672 473669 469668
      461668 452670 446673 444677 440685 435694 432698 427699
      418702 415704 413708 406714 394717 385719 376723 372726
      366727 357730 354730 350729 341730 337729 332730 320731
      316731 310732 307734 305737 298753 292769 288778 283786
      282790 280794 274798 255804 251808 250811 251815 255818
      262821 269827 270832 271837 271843 269847 268859 266868
      264875 261884 254901 251910 248917 244927 242937 240945
      239949 240953 240961 234969 233977 231982 233985 236995
      240003 245006 252011 271015 280018 289017 295010 296004
      300006 307011 312017 315026 319037 316039 311040 307038
      304040 299041 297045 296049 293053 287056 278055 259048
      251046 247046 243045 233041 229042 226044 225058 224065
      224068 226077 227088 229096 235115 238123 239132 240138
      243143 244147 247149 252154 263157 270162 280160 297157
      309159 318163 335169 339168 339165 334163 331160 328152
      322145 321137 325133 332139 336139 338137 335134 333128
      336123 339124 342132 344137 347140 350141 354137 356132
      356127 357120 355115 354111 356108 364104 365101 364094
      362086 364082 368081 377082 379081 382076 382065 379060
      380054 373048 369047 367046 366043 367039 364034 359016
      359011 360009 362005 364000 364994 364989 361986 361979
      362972 366963 368958 368951 368945 366941 362934 354927
      346923 347912 350912 353910 360903 364893 360886 360882
      361879 363876 366870 366865 368860 371855 376851 377847
      378839 379834 380830 383820 384816 386814 387817 392826
      392832 389837 390847 394858 394863 396865 396869 396876
      398879 402880 404878 410855 417845 421840 426837
 0.01 426837 429838 432838 437837 438835 442831 446824 446816
      447807 453794 460781 463775 466767 469752 471745 475738
      482726 485721 489714 493700 494687
 0.01 472156 472153 471150 469147 468144 465143 461143 462148
      462153 463155 465157 468158 470158 472156
 0.01 445150 446145 444142 445138 443135 441134 439134 438136
      437141 437143 438148 436150 438151 441152 443152 445150
 0.01 441701 439700 437701 436702 435703 434704 433705 431706
      431707 429708 428709 428710 427712 428713 429714 430715
      432715 433713 434713 435712 436710 437709 438707 438706
      439704 441701
 0.01 409780 407774 405772 398771 395769 393766 390763 386763
      381764 379762 372766 369765 367766 362774 359779 358783
      358787 360797 365802 367820 361826 357832 357837 356842
      356852 355856 353859 350864 348870 348875 351883 352888
      353892 353897 351901 355901 356896 358893 358888 358883
      356877 355868 364856 365852 365847 368840 371832 370822
      373815 376810 380807 384806 388799 393796 398791 405785
      409780
 0.01 407112 408098 408096 406100 403104 401106 399104 395103
      393107 387113 379117 375125 374130 377128 383122 387116
      390114 396113 403109 407112
 0.01 385752 383750 381751 380751 378751 376752 375753 376755
      378755 380755 382754 383753 385752
 0.01 355965 357958 355954 354949 350946 346947 348951 348956
      349963 348969 350974 351976 353976 355972 355965 355965
 0.01 336880 336876 334872 331874 330876 329880 329883 327885
      327888 329891 330893 331895 333900 335895 334891 334887
      334882 336880
 0.25 442747 440743 437743 433747 431750 429755 429760 427766
      429768 432764 434761 436760 438755 440752 442747
 0.25 429783 430777 428773 426772 423774 420780 417789 416797
      414807 414816 417818 420816 424808 427800 428793 429783
 0.25 415746 414744 414743 413741 412741 410740 409741 408742
      408745 408747 409749 410751 412751 413750 415748 415747
      415746
 0.25 359056 359054 358052 356053 355053 356055 356056 357057
      359056
 0.25 344754 344750 342747 337745 328746 324748 318751 310760
      307765 305770 303776 301783 300788 297794 292803 286807
      285809 286812 289816 287822 284827 282833 279844 276858
      275871 274887 273895 274902 276909 277917 277929 276937
      274943 268954 266959 264965 267976 274977 280976 285973
      287968 289961 292956 295953 298947 300941 301939 305937
      308933 310926 310917 311911 313899 312892 313885 314869
      318857 323847 325842 326833 325820 327815 332815 335812
      338806 341794 344781 344772 343765 344754
 0.25 347112 346110 346109 345107 344106 343105 343104 343105
      342107 342109 342111 344113 345114 347112
 0.25 345083 346079 344077 341074 336068 335064 337060 337056
      334051 331049 326047 322048 320052 316054 314058 306063
      302065 298066 288064 280063 270062 260058 252055 240052
      237054 236059 242066 243068 242070 237070 233071 231076
      233085 239093 244098 248101 250106 246113 245126 248133
      253141 259146 269150 280152 289150 299151 309150 312146
      311142 313129 318123 320118 321111 322103 329097 334098
      340100 342096 340090 343085 345083
 0.25 346013 345008 343004 340001 338997 336993 333993 332999
      331006 330010 329016 329018 331020 334019 338017 341017
      345014 346013
 0.25 332859 331857 329857 328858 327859 327861 328863 330862
      331861 331860 332859
 0.25 332980 333975 333971 332968 331965 330960 329958 327958
      326960 325964 324967 324971 325973 326977 328980 330981
      332980
 0.25 261000 260998 258996 255994 253993 251992 248991 246992
      246994 247996 250998 252000 255001 258002 259002 261000
 0.50 423803 423801 423799 422797 420799 419801 419804 419806
      421807 422806 422805 423803
 0.50 341775 338764 337752 333751 330752 324756 317763 313770
      311774 311781 313789 309797 304804 298810 298821 287833
      283842 282851 280861 279871 277894 281914 281919 282923
      283927 286930 289926 289920 291910 295901 296893 303876
      306865 308856 311847 314843 315839 318836 320831 316821
      317815 319812 324805 329798 335792 340784 341775
 0.50 341080 341078 338078 336078 330077 326079 323080 320078
      317075 313069 305075 300073 294073 271067 264068 261070
      261073 263075 267078 271080 275083 282088 291094 299101
      303100 304098 304093 306091 309095 311100 312105 318099
      322095 324090 326085 332086 341080
 0.50 333058 333056 332054 332053 331052 329052 327052 325053
      324055 325056 325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 333058
 0.50 314120 312114 309113 304117 300115 293113 289108 286104
      281101 271095 262088 253082 248080 243076 237074 235076
      234079 237085 240089 247097 252101 254105 251112 250119
      249126 250131 256139 261143 267146 272148 279149 290147
      298148 303148 306147 308144 307138 307132 308127 314120
 0.50 292943 290935 288934 286937 282943 279949 277953 275956
      272958 272961 276966 278968 280966 284960 287954 291947
      292943
 1.00 335784 334780 333778 332774 331770 329770 328772 326775
      327779 328783 329787 331788 334787 335784
 1.00 304142 302125 299124 296121 289115 283108 275103 268097
      260093 250089 243084 245089 252094 256098 257101 258107
      257110 255115 255120 255126 255132 257136 261139 269144
      275145 280145 285144 291144 299145 304142
 1.00 305816 304814 304816 305817 305816
 1.00 304833 304831 301830 300832 292838 289842 287848 285858
      284871 284885 284889 286891 291887 294878 299869 301864
      302859 303846 304833
 1.00 285080 285078 283077 281076 280075 278075 276074 274075
      275077 276077 277079 279080 281081 283081 285081 285080
 1.50 302142 303137 302133 299129 296124 292120 287116 283112
      280108 275105 265099 263098 261100 262109 258114 257119
      258122 258129 261135 269141 276143 282143 289142 296143
      302142
 1.50 299859 299853 298847 297842 295841 293845 291849 289854
      289858 288864 289870 292873 294870 297866 298861 299859
 2.00 301139 301134 298129 292122 285116 278108 270103 264103
      264107 263112 260117 261129 262134 266137 270140 276142
      288140 299141 301139
 2.00 295859 296857 296855 295853 294851 293853 293855 293856
      293858 292860 292862 293863 295862 295861 295859
 3.00 296136 295132 293129 288122 281115 276110 273107 269107
      265115 262119 263123 265132 271137 277138 281138 290138
      296136
 4.00 291134 289128 286124 283120 278115 272112 267115 265121
      266128 269132 274135 280136 286135 291134
 5.00 286131 284126 282123 280119 277117 272116 268117 266122
      268126 270130 274132 277134 281133 285131 286131
 6.00 280130 280128 280126 280125 280123 279122 278121 277121
      275119 274119 272120 270119 268120 267122 268122 269124
      270124 271126 272126 272129 274129 276130 278131 280130
      280130
 7.00 277125 276123 275122 274123 275124 276125 277125 277125