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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1733Z Oct 24, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
133 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 25/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MAINE...

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY SATURDAY.
SOME LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SERIOUSLY
LACKING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY...AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER OFF THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FETCH DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE FAVORING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY MODEST.


...SOUTH FLORIDA...

A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. CONCENTRATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY
LATER TODAY AND SHOULD END TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE LIGHT.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 35N 135W WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND ALONG WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A FRONT THAT IS ALREADY STALLED OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD AS THIS ENERGY APPROACHES. INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL FAVOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS FOR
WA/OR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHWEST CA AND WESTERN
OR...AND THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
GIVEN STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ROBUST UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A NON-GFS CONSENSUS LED PREDOMINANTLY BY THE
ECMWF.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 474619 478624 484628 489632 493640 496648 497656 496660
      493679 494684 493688 490691 488691 481689 477684 462689
      458689 456688 449684 448677 452671 451663 446655 447648
      449640 452634 454626
 0.01 544192 542183 538177 528168 522163 515158 512157 509154
      503147 490139 487133 485131 483130 479131 474130 471133
      471136 481145 480152 479154 477154 472150 469147 466146
      462149 463155 461160 462168 463175 459179 457189 456196
      455199 451206 447211 441212 438214 434213 429212 426214
      418213 414210 409209 403205 399201 397198 393196 390197
      389195 387193 382191 379189 375188 371190 371194 371198
      374202 379207 382209 379212 372212 365211 358212 350214
      344220 346227 348230 352231 358231 362233 362237 365243
      371247 379252 387255 396260 395263 393267 391274 394280
      399285 406289 416293 435299 449303 462301 465300 469297
      474293 486282 494273 500271 506272 511265 516260 523257
      525253 527247 529241 531231 532226 534223 537218
 0.01 546860 545847 544839 541831 537826 532822 526818 522813
      517806 514799 511794 504782 496768 491762 485758 481754
      479745 477724 475714 471707 465704 457702 453705 451711
      448718 442721 427748 418776 413783 410791 409798 410808
      414807 416808 416810 411814 402822 397828 394833 389840
      390845 392847 394849 398849 402846 406840 411836 423829
      429826 437821 441820 444818 447818 448823 446826 446831
      447836 449838 462842 465844 466849 470856 475862 478865
      481867 483872 484875 484880 485889 487893 490894 494894
      497897 502904 504906 508906 512903 517904 522906 528904
      533899 538892 541883 544874 546860
 0.01 421870 421867 421865 419865 417865 415863 414863 412863
      410863 410866 410868 412870 412871 414871 416872 418872
      419872 421870 421870
 0.01 269787 268781 265778 262777 256776 247777 242779 235783
      231786 228793 227799 226807 228825 231829 236830 240815
      244816 247815 250808 254805 257802 261801 265798 268792
      269787
 0.25 532206 533198 531192 528190 525187 520185 517188 516193
      516198 517205 518209 521213 524212 527210 531208 532206
 0.25 516238 517230 516225 514221 510219 506216 502211 499208
      493206 484202 475202 470204 466206 461207 458209 451215
      444217 440220 437225 432226 427225 423225 418224 415215
      406213 397206 392205 388208 388211 390213 393216 395220
      396223 393224 387222 381222 378225 377230 382236 389243
      393248 397251 406255 414260 414264 412266 409271 407275
      413277 422281 430286 442291 448292 453292 460290 467285
      475280 482274 488270 495266 500264 503262 506258 509253
      516238
 0.25 512833 512827 510823 507813 500796 495789 490781 485776
      479769 475763 472760 468761 466769 464780 467787 474793
      481794 483798 485803 487813 490825 494833 499840 504843
      509841 512838 512833
 0.25 484659 484651 481647 478644 476649 477656 477662 477669
      479674 482676 484675 484672 482667 482662 484659
 0.50 509241 510237 510233 507230 504222 501217 496215 493215
      489212 487213 486215 486222 485225 483225 478224 475225
      474220 476214 472209 469210 464210 460212 458215 456216
      457221 458225 456230 453233 437235 432235 426233 415230
      413226 415220 412216 409216 404214 400211 396208 393210
      394213 400219 403222 400225 396226 391226 386226 384228
      384231 390238 395245 404250 415253 420256 422259 422266
      423272 427276 435281 440284 444284 452285 460283 469279
      481270 496262 501259 503255 509241
 1.00 495257 496252 495249 493243 490238 484239 476232 470235
      465236 447243 437246 433245 431243 426239 402231 397232
      395238 399244 405246 416248 425249 428250 430253 432256
      431260 431266 434272 439276 450277 461276 480264 487260
      495257
 1.50 491253 491250 491249 489247 488245 486244 485246 484248
      483250 482252 483254 485254 487254 488255 489255 490254
      491253
 1.50 474260 476257 475253 472250 467248 462248 453247 450248
      446250 441259 439262 437267 440270 444272 451269 459270
      466267 469266 473262 474260