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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0645Z Oct 22, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 22/1200 UTC THRU OCT 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF HIGH PW
VALUES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DAY 1.  STRONG ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF
THE WA/OREGON CASCADES TO THE WA/OREGON COAST RANGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE.  OVERALL---THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SCENARIO---LEADING TO A RATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  RUNOFF ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND OREGON COAST RANGES AND INLAND INTO THE
OREGON CASCADES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
WIDESPREAD 2-4" PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"+ POSSIBLE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS---EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  PW VALUES AHEAD
OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION STRETCHING
ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE HI RES
ARW AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED FOR QPF
DETAILS TO MITIGATE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS--WITH
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. 

SOUTH FLORIDA

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA---ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DAY 1 TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.   ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY IN
THIS HIGH PW AXIS WHERE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE UVVS.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC--EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SWINGING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
PERIOD.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS FROM
THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC---INTO EASTERN NY AND NEARLY ALL OF NEW
ENGLAND.  THE STRONGEST---MOST PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS
TARGETING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM EASTERN MA INTO
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS
THESE AREAS---WITH 1-2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.  WITH
THIS AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAINS FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW--THERE
WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 426635 437637 444637 451635 455632 459634 465645 473654
      477661 480668 480681 479696 477703 474709 467721 463731
      461736 458742 454748 450751 445756 441762 429779 424784
      421782 414769 413767 410766 407771 404776 403779 403783
      403792 401797 397802 392808 387809 384809 382811 378815
      373817 368815 368810 372804 377801 380796 380791 381786
      380782 377778 360760 356755 353750 348741 347734 347727
      350720 354716 361709 367700 376691 380685 383680 389672
      392670 393668 395661 401650 410640
 0.01 538205 539191 537182 533173 530168 529163 526158 524157
      521154 517151 512149 505146 491137 484131 476128 473128
      471131 471138 474141 477140 481142 480146 476148 473148
      466146 451152 446152 444154 440157 438161 440166 444171
      444177 442180 439182 438188 438194 441194 448192 452192
      455190 461187 462190 461196 458203 450206 445201 442202
      440208 437209 433207 431204 427202 421199 419201 419205
      422212 420217 415215 407213 402214 400216 400219 402223
      403226 401226 388227 383235 381238 380243 385249 392253
      387259 381268 381271 383274 390277 395278 398278 405276
      418269 425265 433264 444262 452260 460261 470264 474265
      476268 492280 497285 501291 504292 506289 511284 519265
      521257 520250 517241 516232 517228 520227 531221 536212
      538205
 0.01 231971 232978 233983 237993 246001 254008 257012 259016
      265024 270031 273038 276044 279049 282052 283053 286054
      294054 299053 305055 312056 322057 332055 338049 344039
      347034 350031 357023 360018 365014 373008 377005 382004
      391001 394002 394004 395009 397015 395020 393023 393028
      396030 400030 403028 404026 409023 413023 414025 420025
      425023 457005 475994 479990 480987 481983 484977 488975
      507970 512968 514965 514960 512955 509941 504931 502927
      504924 506916 507913 507909 507898 505893 502890 494885
      487881 483879 478879 474879 471878 468880 463881 458883
      449889 444893 441894 439896 422902 413907 405910 387922
      377930 370938 365946 360952 358958 360964 364972 368977
      369981 367983 359987 348993 337997 328001 321006 313010
      304008 293003 289001 282001 277002 271999 266990 263980
      259969 248957 237957 231959
 0.01 275791 271780 269775 265771 260772 255775 250781 246784
      243789 238795 230814 229820 230828 231832 230836 228848
      229853 232854 251855 257845 262838 268829 268820 266819
      263818 262816 263814 268806 274798 275791
 0.25 531205 532199 532195 531189 527174 522164 514156 507154
      501154 490158 485157 480158 476172 474175 474180 476184
      472190 469197 467202 462203 455209 450212 445213 439214
      432214 428215 424218 421222 418228 415227 413225 411219
      408221 407227 406230 404231 398232 395236 396242 398246
      399254 398262 398265 403266 408265 417261 425259 448256
      468255 475256 481258 487262 491267 497275 501280 503283
      506282 507279 507276 506268 506263 509264 511266 514264
      516257 515250 513237 512229 509223 507216 506211 508206
      512205 517206 525211 529210 531205
 0.25 502257 501253 500251 498247 497244 495241 494239 492237
      489236 489237 490240 493243 494246 496248 497250 499253
      500256 502257
 0.25 468684 467670 466663 464657 461651 456647 449645 439647
      423653 416657 412660 410663 408679 402698 394709 387713
      380719 371729 368734 367737 367749 370756 372760 374763
      379764 382764 389760 399751 406745 409745 412748 424753
      431754 436753 439752 444748 449741 452733 455724 461710
      466695 468684
 0.25 483912 480910 477910 470911 464913 458914 453916 448919
      447923 448928 454929 460927 464925 470923 475921 480917
      483912
 0.25 456949 452945 445941 435937 427935 418936 405938 390936
      385936 382938 379941 377949 379956 380959 383961 387964
      396964 403961 414958 422958 425959 421959 410964 398970
      392974 390979 390985 392987 400986 410982 418981 426980
      430976 433969 433962 431959 434957 445954 452951 456949
 0.25 267800 267796 266791 263788 257787 252788 248792 245797
      240807 237818 235832 237838 239841 242841 249838 253834
      255829 256822 256815 258810 266802 267800
 0.50 527204 529198 528193 527187 525179 523173 505163 500161
      495161 489161 484163 481168 479172 479176 481181 483189
      483193 481196 473204 466208 459207 457210 453213 448215
      437216 428218 425221 423229 418231 413231 408233 402234
      398236 398238 401244 402249 406253 412255 417256 423255
      442253 453253 463251 472251 476250 481247 482244 483239
      481234 478228 475224 481226 487227 493235 499243 506254
      512256 511251 511236 507225 502212 500206 502199 505197
      511198 520203 527204
 0.50 504276 503268 501262 498258 495252 492245 488241 486241
      484243 486249 488254 492261 495266 498271 502276 504276
 0.50 464678 462668 458659 454655 448653 441654 434657 427661
      423665 418671 416680 415684 414687 411692 407700 402705
      398710 397717 396722 394725 387730 378738 375744 375751
      377753 383756 386755 391753 396749 398745 400742 401736
      404729 408726 412727 414731 415737 418742 421743 425742
      433740 443739 446734 449726 456712 461699 463687 464678
 0.50 427968 427965 424964 420966 416967 412968 408970 403972
      403975 407978 412978 416977 419975 424973 426970 427968
 0.50 263800 262796 259793 254793 251795 246801 243805 242809
      239817 238828 240832 244833 247831 250828 252820 254810
      256805 259803 263800
 1.00 523192 522185 520180 516179 512176 509174 504172 500173
      500178 504181 507185 509188 513191 516193 521194 523192
 1.00 507248 506237 505228 503221 500214 496208 492204 488203
      483204 477207 471209 467211 463211 458212 453216 447217
      439217 429222 426230 422233 419233 413234 408237 406240
      406244 408247 413248 419251 426251 441249 453249 466245
      472246 478245 480240 479234 477231 475229 471227 472223
      474222 478220 481221 488224 496236 507248
 1.00 456685 455679 454675 450668 447666 444666 438668 432671
      427676 424683 422690 413701 410705 409710 411714 413716
      420718 424725 428732 433732 440727 443722 452708 455701
      456692 456685
 1.00 254802 252800 250801 248804 246809 244813 243817 243823
      245825 248821 249816 250812 251808 253804 254802
 1.50 502238 503233 503228 501220 499215 496210 489207 483207
      474212 470213 463213 459215 454218 442218 438222 435226
      432232 427235 415234 410237 409241 411243 421249 443247
      450247 456246 464242 468237 467228 470222 474219 480219
      487222 491226 493230 498237 502238
 1.50 479241 479238 479237 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 471238 472239 473241 475242 476242
      478242 479241
 1.50 455228 454227 453226 451227 449228 447228 446228 445228
      443230 445232 447232 448232 450232 452231 453230 454229
      455228
 1.50 448692 447687 445683 441679 438679 432680 430685 426693
      423696 419699 417703 419709 423715 428724 431725 434723
      436722 443715 447706 449701 448694 448692
 2.00 500232 500225 498217 496212 489209 483209 479210 474214
      475217 480217 486220 491223 494229 498234 500232
 2.00 478238 477236 477235 476234 475234 474237 475238 477240
      478238
 2.00 466237 463229 466224 468220 469217 467216 461216 458217
      455220 458226 460229 457232 452233 438234 431236 423236
      415236 412238 412240 417245 425248 439246 452245 460243
      464239 466237
 2.00 452223 452222 450221 448220 447220 445220 443220 442220
      441221 440222 440224 441226 442226 444226 446226 447226
      448226 449225 450225 451223 452223
 2.00 444696 441690 436689 433694 430700 424703 423706 424710
      428714 432718 437714 441709 443703 444696
 3.00 459240 458237 455236 448236 441237 435238 428239 419237
      417239 417242 421244 425245 432244 439243 445243 452242
      456242 459240 459240
 3.00 462223 464221 463218 461218 459219 458219 458222 459222
      460224 462223 462223
 4.00 427242 426240 424240 423239 421239 420240 420241 422242
      424243 426243 427242