Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1856Z Oct 30, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 31/0000 UTC THRU NOV 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC---WITH HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS LIKELY IN THE AXIS
OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES/ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.  OVERALL---QPF DISTRIBUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AMONG THE
LATEST MODELS---WITH THE SREF MEAN AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED MEANS USED FOR DETAILS.  ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BEGINS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THIS AREA.  SUBSEQUENTLY---HEAVIEST
TOTALS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF ACROSS THIS AREA.  FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH---HEIGHT FALLS AMPLIFYING INTO THE BASE OF THE
ELONGATED TROF DURING FRIDAY WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS DEPICTED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES.

GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

THE STRONG VORT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT---WITH
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFY VORT WILL SUPPORT A QUICK MOVING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SNOW AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY.  FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI...THE
NORTHERN L.P. OF MI AND POSSIBLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.

SOUTH TEXAS

WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH TX WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER SOUTH
TX.  A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH QPF DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
MODELS---WITH THE HI RES MODELS MOST EMPHATIC ABOUT POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE
IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN AND SREF MEAN FOR DETAILS
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS GIVEN INCREASING PW VALUES AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE ALONG THE LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO---EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST---AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST--WITH SOME LIGHT TOTALS POSSIBLE AFFECTING COASTAL NC/SC
INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 539208 541195 538186 536177 533170 529164 524160 514152
      506150 498149 494153 490162 487164 483162 477159 470158
      466161 463161 460162 454166 449169 444174 440178 433181
      428184 423186 420189 417189 410192 395194 376203 359202
      338210 333219 336228 340235 348240 359243 372252 386264
      425260 440256 452254 472256 485270 493287 501287 511279
      517266 520260 520255 519244 518235 515227 516225 519223
      524222 530222 534218 539208
 0.01 484869 484859 482854 479846 478837 477829 477822 476805
      477797 476787 474780 471775 464767 455763 450762 443764
      438767 433770 430771 427774 421775 417778 413779 401785
      390790 380796 372801 362809 356819 352824 350829 348840
      348844 347846 347853 349860 354864 360863 364861 371860
      376864 373870 370875 366879 366887 369892 376891 383891
      386889 393888 397888 399890 402890 403887 402883 400880
      396870 405875 430877 443876 446875 450876 454878 457883
      457893 458901 461908 466907 470902 475895 481882 484869
 0.01 406689 404683 397677 382676 367687 332721 327726 316735
      310739 304742 292748 286752 281756 272766 267773 262778
      256787 254789 254794 251800 246804 243811 242819 243822
      242825 244830 248837 254841 272841 281835 300818 315808
      323799 328793 331787 339777 349767 361758 370750 380739
      388728 395715 401704 404695 406689
 0.01 309017 315011 320003 322992 323984 318977 311972 303970
      295970 289970 280968 273966 264968 256972 245973 241976
      233979 231985 231989 233992 238995 244998 249002 258011
      267018 277026 288028 297034 307043 313043 310036 307024
      309017
 0.25 533206 533198 531190 526176 523172 520168 515166 509167
      500171 494173 490176 488180 485186 477195 468202 458205
      453209 448211 444211 432214 426215 416218 412216 400207
      393202 385205 382207 376212 370213 361212 358214 353219
      352222 354228 359233 371241 396256 405257 410257 420255
      429252 441249 452247 464247 474247 479248 482246 483244
      485235 489234 505252 507254 509253 510249 511243 510234
      508227 507220 507211 509206 515207 520210 526212 531208
      533206
 0.25 471875 471873 470868 469865 467863 464863 462864 461869
      461873 461876 461879 462883 463887 465890 468888 470885
      470883 471878 471875
 0.25 466821 466812 466806 465802 465799 463794 457790 452790
      448792 442797 438804 433809 427816 425824 426830 428834
      431836 435836 440835 444836 448843 445852 444856 445861
      450862 455860 457857 457852 462832 464825 466821
 0.25 430866 429862 427857 424853 422851 419853 417857 415861
      412865 409868 409871 412873 418873 423873 428871 430868
      430866
 0.25 390702 388700 383700 377701 369704 361708 354711 347716
      336725 325736 315747 294769 285781 282787 283794 287801
      292807 295810 298811 304809 310805 316799 326789 344766
      353752 362740 381717 387709 390702
 0.25 306998 306992 304989 297983 294983 292987 290991 286992
      277995 275998 275001 281007 287013 291015 294014 300013
      304004 306998
 0.50 529199 520179 514173 510173 506174 498177 491184 485192
      479198 473204 469207 465209 460208 458210 449214 441215
      432218 424223 419230 416232 410231 401233 393235 391241
      393245 396248 402250 413252 421251 430249 438246 448244
      456244 464243 468242 474243 479243 481237 481231 484229
      489230 492232 498241 502246 505247 507244 507238 506233
      504226 503220 501215 497205 497201 499196 504196 509196
      522202 526203 529199
 0.50 460812 460807 459803 457800 455800 451800 448802 446804
      445807 445810 445812 447817 449819 451819 454819 457818
      459815 460812
 0.50 411223 412219 411218 408218 404213 398211 394207 390206
      389211 386214 383215 376218 367219 365222 365227 371230
      376230 384225 388222 390221 393222 399223 404226 408227
      411223
 0.50 424869 423868 422867 421866 419866 417866 416867 415868
      415870 416870 417871 419871 421871 423870 424869
 0.50 374715 373712 368712 361715 349720 339728 330735 322745
      314753 299773 292782 290795 292801 296806 301806 305804
      315795 324788 332778 339769 352748 367728 372720 374715
 1.00 499230 498221 495217 491213 486210 479208 476209 473211
      473214 477217 480217 485220 491223 494228 495231 498232
      499230
 1.00 462221 463218 462216 460215 454218 447218 440219 434222
      430224 431229 434230 440227 444228 447227 453223 459222
      461223 462221
 1.00 429243 424239 421237 417237 412237 409237 403238 402242
      405245 409246 412247 418248 421247 425245 429243
 1.00 400216 399215 398214 397215 398215 399216 400216
 1.00 362724 362722 360722 357724 349728 341732 336737 330743
      325749 321755 317761 311777 310781 311786 314788 318787
      324782 329777 338764 347751 355737 362724
 1.50 349738 348735 343737 338741 334746 329753 326759 326763
      327768 330768 332766 337761 342755 345750 348743 349738