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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1805Z Nov 24, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 25/0000 UTC THRU NOV 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION

HANG BACK TROFINESS BEHIND DEEP LOW PRES LIFTING NEWD OF THE GT
LAKES AND IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL S/WV INITIALLY OVER THE MO
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF WI INTO MUCH OF THE NRN L.P. OF MI.  THE INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MI WILL HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS.  FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY
WAS NOTED HERE SO DID NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS MANUALLY
GENERATED QPF AMOUNTS WITH .25 TO .50 INCH LIQUID EQUIVES EXPECTED
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE L.P. OF MI.   SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.


FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST

RATHER WET CONDS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF FL INTO THE SE THIS PD AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL
AHEAD OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR TROF.  WITH
FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER NRN FL...EXPECTED DEEP LAYERED SWLY
FLOW WILL TEND TO SET UP OVER CNTL FL ON TUES WHERE HIGH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO AID IN THE POTNL OF ORGANIZED WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION WITH SOME POTNL FOR TRAINING.  STILL ENOUGH
LATITUDE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT GOING SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS..BUT PATRN DOES SUGGEST PONTL FOR
ORGANIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS OVER PARTS OF CNTL FL..WITH ISOLD MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.  EXPECT LOW PRES WAVE
TO DVLP OVER THE ERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO S/WV ENERGY DIVING SEWD
INTO THE WRN GULF.  THE ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING MID/UPR
FLOW WILL LIKELY EXPANDING AREA OF POST FRONTAL RAINS ACRS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO THE SE US ON TUES.  THE NAM APPEARED TO BE A FAR
WESTERN OUTLIER HERE AND LEANED MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
EC/UKMET/GFS/CAN AND CONTINUITY. 

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW PATRN TO THE SOUTH OF STG E/W UPR JET WILL
PROVIDE ANOMOLOUSLY STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE PAC NW MON NIGHT WITH
MSTR STREAMING ACRS PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN
ROCKIES INTO TUES.  INITIAL WEAK S/WV MOVING INTO WRN CANADA MON
AFTN WILL PUSH E/W FRONTAL BNDRY SWD INTO WA STATE WHERE IT WILL
LIKELY STALL MON NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF RATHER HIGH PWS OF 1
TO 1.25 INCHES POOLED ALONG THE BNDRY AND CONFLUENT 85H WLY FLOW
OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PROVIDE STG MSTR FLUX VALUES OF 2 TO 3+ STD
ABOVE NORMAL INTO WA/NRN OREGON REGION.  SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BNDRY WILL AIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY PCPN ACRS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  DID NOT GO SHY WITH AMOUNTS AS
DYNAMICS AND FLOW PATRN WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STG OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN FACING SLOPES OF THE WA/NRN
OREGON CASCASES AND INTO THE BLUE MTNS/SAWTOOTH MTNS.  INCREASED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONTINUITY OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...OTHERWSE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY WERE MADE. 
WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CASCADES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL...SOME RUNOFF
ISSUES WILL BE PSBL.  SLOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THOUGH SOME OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAINS
WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO SNOW COVER..SO ANY RUNOFF ISSUES
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 516284 513285 512289 509297 504309 501315 499324 493330
      483331 474328 468325 464322 461318 459315 458312 457307
      456299 457290 456283 456269 455262 451259 433259 428260
      423258 419255 417249 422227 421221 424218 433212 450205
      467200 468198 468193 465193 462194 453199 449201 444201
      441197 438193 432186 432179 428176 425174 426173 424170
      417163 418154 419151 420152 425157 428158 430156 438134
      441130 443125 442120 437119 424133 421132 416128 411126
      404124 398122 394119 390116 392114 397112 399110 398108
      400106 404107 406104 406100 408098 409103 412107 415112
      419111 420109 421105 423103 428102 428099 425095 424092
      423088 425085 428086 432088 435087 440086 441084 440082
      436079 433075 431073 431068 433059 431052 430044 429039
      432033 435027 435019 435011 435006 434002 430002 432996
      434991 438988 445983 453976 478976 482977 487979 496985
      500989 504991 511999 519017 533037 538046 539049 538055
      539065 546087 550096 548112 553114 557119
 0.01 528250 528247 528245 529242 529240 529237 530234 530232
      530229 532228 532227 534225 536224
 0.01 567919 567914 565911 564913 559919 550930 545936 541939
      531949 529954 526955 523962 523976 526981 529984 532983
      536979 544965 547961 548957 552949 554940 556937 558936
      563929 567922 567919
 0.01 520670 516661 510653 503648 496642 494637 495631 494624
      491619 489616 485616 480619 479622 476625 475630 468630
      461628 458627 454628 435635 430636 427639 420646 414653
      405660 397665 390660 385659 380660 375662 372664 369666
      365670 363673 360675 353681 349686 338698 327712 318726
      306740 299747 294752 289759 284764 271779 253799 244813
      235828 231836 230847 231859 231866 233870 234894 234905
      233910 233916 237932 239935 243937 247936 251934 256930
      263933 270933 274932 277931 281929 294914 304901 309892
      313884 319868 323861 329853 332844 334836 336828 337823
      338820 341812 346805 352798 358789 368774 377761 383753
      388745 395733 399725 402717 425689 432682 436681 439686
      439690 441691 445691 452694 458693 461692 461695 457704
      452710 448718 444725 439728 434729 432731 430736 429747
      429750 431754 432759 434762 436768 438770 441768 443764
      448761 450757 453754 457753 456757 452765 449769 445773
      443781 438784 435783 433780 429779 426779 424783 421794
      422809 423815 425819 425825 425832 421839 418846 415865
      416870 418877 417885 415891 413896 413903 417912 422919
      426921 431921 447916 453913 456912 459914 465919 469914
      474905 477895 482890 488884 495879 499875 501871 504859
      505854 508849 510840 511835 514830 519808 524790 526781
      529772 530766 530759 529750 530745 529731 529723 529716
      528707 529700 528689
 0.01 535126 534120 531117 527111 523105 520099 515090 511087
      504082 500077 498076 497079 496083 493091 491096 492101
      493109 496118 500126 504132 507138 508143 510147 514149
      517150 524148 529143 532133 535126
 0.01 429063 426058 423055 422060 420062 418061 416057 416053
      413052 410054 406055 399054 395057 389062 383062 379064
      370060 366060 365062 367067 371070 372074 372081 374086
      376088 378088 381084 389089 386082 386079 387078 389083
      393081 395087 397086 399081 402077 405077 415076 420070
      429063
 0.25 530202 531196 530190 527180 524173 518165 497144 487129
      482124 479120 477116 477104 475095 472088 469086 464086
      459092 455090 453086 451086 449089 443094 437095 433096
      431093 429092 429096 432099 433104 426108 422119 424123
      426124 431118 433116 438115 441114 443116 447122 455121
      456125 454129 452132 450138 446146 439147 437150 437155
      441161 445167 447172 447177 442183 442188 447190 452193
      458187 464182 468175 475175 481179 487187 487190 484194
      479199 472202 467207 460209 455212 449214 441217 438221
      439226 444232 441235 439240 468251 496273 502273 507267
      514253 514248 513242 513237 511231 505214 504204 502200
      503197 509200 517202 526205 530202
 0.25 505709 504701 501699 495707 492709 490713 490721 487724
      476741 470748 468752 466756 464769 461778 455785 452789
      451794 448805 445815 443827 441837 436847 430853 427857
      426860 429869 434878 436882 439885 444885 447882 453877
      460869 462866 462863 465854 468843 471831 475820 482801
      485791 488780 490769 492756 493744 493740 492737 489733
      491729 494727 495732 497734 499733 503728 505722 505709
 0.25 476714 476712 475710 475709 474708 473706 471706 469708
      469709 468712 468714 468717 469718 469719 471719 472719
      474718 475717 476716 476714
 0.25 455231 455228 454228 453227 451227 451228 449228 448229
      447231 446231 447231 448232 449232 450232 452231 454231
      455231
 0.25 452080 451076 450074 448073 445071 441072 438070 435071
      436074 438072 441072 443074 445077 447080 449082 452080
 0.25 400690 399687 396683 392685 391689 390693 388693 382690
      379688 376687 370688 358696 351702 345708 336719 321741
      303765 285785 280790 275795 268800 263805 255814 248825
      244832 241839 241844 243849 247854 252859 257862 259865
      260869 258876 254893 254902 257909 261913 268913 275908
      279904 289892 297880 304868 311857 318843 324829 331816
      338805 370756 376750 380743 384737 386729 392715 394708
      397703 400695 400690
 0.25 412071 411068 410067 408067 407066 405066 403066 402067
      403068 405068 407068 408069 410069 412071 412071
 0.50 519188 519183 517179 514173 510167 505163 499165 495166
      491163 482153 476149 471144 472142 476142 483144 488146
      489141 486134 482129 475127 470126 468130 467135 464136
      458138 454142 452146 450151 446157 449164 451168 451173
      449187 451189 454188 458185 462182 463178 462173 458174
      454172 455168 459163 464164 466168 470168 476169 482173
      505188 509191 513191 519188
 0.50 505245 506238 505231 502220 499209 494199 490197 486199
      478202 471205 467208 464210 456214 449218 445221 445225
      448226 453226 458229 456233 452234 449237 449239 452241
      457242 466244 475249 483253 492260 497261 499261 500258
      497247 497244 500244 502246 505245 505245
 0.50 481759 478753 474756 473762 472768 471775 468780 462788
      458791 455797 456808 453813 451818 450831 448838 446843
      441852 438858 438864 440868 442869 445868 452860 456852
      460838 462826 465813 469804 471790 472776 477766 481759
 0.50 456105 453098 451096 448097 445101 439102 435106 431109
      429111 431113 437110 440110 443113 447116 452115 452110
      456105
 0.50 374715 374710 372705 367701 361704 356708 348716 340724
      325744 312761 304772 298782 292791 285800 274807 269810
      265813 257820 251829 248835 247843 251848 255850 267854
      270858 270865 265877 263882 261889 261896 262900 264902
      269903 275901 280897 284893 291883 302864 309854 313841
      318830 323819 330809 338800 348779 360756 362751 360748
      362742 365737 369732 372727 374715
 1.00 494223 495213 491207 489204 485204 480205 474207 469210
      459216 454218 453222 455224 461228 464231 462236 464239
      466239 470239 472241 475244 479244 481242 481236 480233
      477231 471233 468229 470225 476223 482223 489224 493224
      494223
 1.00 478162 478157 474155 471152 468148 464145 459145 457147
      455154 456158 458159 463159 466162 471165 475164 478162
 1.00 461180 461178 461177 460178 459178 457179 455181 455182
      457183 458182 459181 461181 461180
 1.00 356732 356728 355723 353723 351726 348730 343733 337739
      330748 317764 312773 309784 307789 304793 295800 287805
      280811 270818 263825 256832 255835 255840 260844 266844
      276839 284835 287835 286837 285844 285850 283856 279867
      274875 272881 272886 273888 276888 280885 287877 293869
      296859 314821 319817 319811 320803 319798 321793 326784
      332774 338765 349749 353740 356732
 1.50 491216 490212 488208 483207 476208 470211 465214 459218
      455221 458224 461226 467225 474221 479220 487220 491216
 1.50 479241 479239 479237 478236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 475241 476242 478241 479241
 1.50 471160 470158 470157 469155 467153 466152 465151 464150
      462149 460150 460153 462156 463156 465157 466159 467159
      468160 470161 471160 471160
 1.50 343748 341748 340750 338752 336754 335756 333759 332761
      330763 331766 332764 334763 336760 338758 339755 341753
      342750 343748
 1.50 294811 294809 292808 288810 283815 277819 272823 267828
      262833 262837 264839 271836 275834 278832 282827 287823
      292816 294811
 2.00 486218 486212 484210 478209 473211 468213 464216 459219
      457222 460224 465223 471221 474219 481219 486218
 2.00 478238 477236 476235 475237 475238 477239 478238
 2.00 286814 284815 281817 277820 274823 271826 269829 268832
      269833 273832 276829 279825 281822 283819 286814 286814
 3.00 482214 481212 479212 477212 476212 475212 474212 472213
      472214 470215 469215 468215 467217 468219 469219 471218
      473218 475217 476217 478217 480216 481216 482214 482214
 4.00 478215 477214 475214 474214 475215 477215 478215