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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1900Z Apr 18, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 19/0000 UTC THRU APR 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO THE MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...

THE DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CO HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
ADVANCING EAST AND OPENING UP TONIGHT AND SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE PLAINS..MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS AND BACK INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WY AND NORTHERN CO. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINS IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
OVERALL. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WAS
FOLLOWED FOR QPF.


...GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
TN/OH VALLEYS...

THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT AND
SUN..LEADING TO ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR SUN. A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS STREAM AS PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR/GOES-GB IMAGERY WILL CROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON SUN. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP FOSTER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AND
GET CAUGHT UP IN DEEPER LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE VIA A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND HELP
SEND A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND UP AGAINST
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
RESURGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS AND HELP FOSTER
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE VERY MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. WPC TENDED TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING HI RES GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST LED BY THE 12Z WRF-ARW...BUT THEN MORE
OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS WHERE MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.


...NEW ENGLAND...

A VIGOROUS BUT FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASCENT WILL
BE STRONG TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPACT SHORTWAVE...BUT EXPECT ONLY LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE THIS
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 434633 441638 443640 445646 449654 452664 456672 461679
      463683 464690 464695 463700 462703 457705 453713 443704
      438698 435688 433684 430681 424684 420683 417680 414677
      413673 412666 413661 413651 415644 418638
 0.01 561985 561967 558959 555954 550954 546952 546943 547936
      547929 547922 546915 541891 532878 527871 525867 519866
      512864 504862 501861 497862 491865 485866 481868 475873
      471875 468878 461885 457888 452887 454875 455869 455865
      454853 452849 449847 445842 439837 436835 433830 429825
      425817 421807 419803 416800 410792 404786 391775 384770
      378764 370759 363756 360755 355756 349757 345759 339763
      336765 334769 332773 329776 324777 321780 316781 314783
      305784 301788 300793 300796 298797 293797 283797 275793
      271793 269796 263798 259800 257803 260804 264806 267808
      275811 278814 279820 271836 256860 254865 253870 255879
      254885 253890 252894 254899 258907 256913 258917 257927
      263929 274921 280921 284923 290918 296916 301914 303912
      306909 311908 313913 312920 310930 309935 307939 296954
      288968 286973 285980 287985 289988 295994 299997 303996
      317989 324985 327983 333983 339985 343985 347987 351989
      354993 355997 359000 366004 368017 369022 369028 369035
      372038 371044 365045 358048 356053 357058 364062 367066
      371068 374079 374083 376087 382085 387091 388084 385082
      386078 388078 390080 393082 395081 398085 401084 404081
      408079 411078 413079 414083 412085 408087 406093 402110
      399111 401116 405117 409119 413120 417118 417115 420112
      423110 425108 428110 431113 434115 438115 440113 444113
      447114 454122 453128 452132 454135 458134 461137 464136
      464134 465126 464122 458118 458114 459111 463111 465104
      462101 458100 456096 454089 453077 447071 444069 442066
      442063 442059 444056 449048 455043 463038 469034 472030
      476032 479036 481037 483035 486035 489036 490038 495040
      498043 512040 515038 518034 521032 522028 532008 534002
      535995 536991 539987 542990 548993 553993 556990 561985
 0.01 385205 386198 383195 379193 376190 373187 370185 366186
      365190 368193 372196 375199 378202 381205 385205
 0.01 356120 356118 354115 351112 349112 348110 344109 344111
      345114 347116 348119 350121 352122 354122 356120
 0.01 342098 342096 342094 342093 341091 340091 339089 338089
      337091 338093 338095 338097 340098 342098 342098
 0.01 283985 283979 281976 280974 275974 266974 262973 259972
      249971 245971 242972 237976 235979 235982 238985 242986
      245986 247990 244997 242002 244005 248007 256007 267017
      270018 273017 276014 276011 270999 274992 279989 283985
 0.25 536939 536924 534912 530900 526890 522883 519880 515877
      506875 500875 491880 483879 477880 473883 470887 466893
      461899 456903 450908 442911 438913 433914 426914 416910
      409906 407901 411898 416892 419889 424889 429884 432880
      435879 439877 441873 441866 438861 430850 425843 421837
      413818 407809 404806 400805 394802 392799 393796 393791
      388785 381780 375774 367770 360769 352772 344776 339781
      335786 329790 314799 308803 297804 288804 283804 284808
      287809 289808 293811 295815 296819 286828 277842 268856
      265862 263870 264906 264910 267912 270911 277906 289896
      292894 296894 300897 304895 309890 315887 320886 323888
      324893 323897 321900 321906 323918 324920 327920 330917
      334910 340904 349899 353899 355901 357907 357912 361921
      365928 374939 373949 371960 362974 358986 359991 363991
      370990 379992 381995 377006 376008 376015 379017 386015
      391018 395021 402018 405013 407009 410005 416006 418004
      416001 411997 408989 406983 405979 407970 412960 414957
      419957 428956 432958 435961 441968 445976 448986 450997
      450004 449010 445019 440025 434029 429035 427037 424037
      423040 421042 417043 413047 411050 409051 403050 395046
      375048 373052 377054 382055 388054 391054 394057 395062
      397065 402066 405063 411057 414056 417054 421051 425049
      448034 460023 470005 473996 474992 478991 484991 487990
      488988 490987 489991 488995 494997 504996 509992 515987
      519981 520975 522972 526968 531960 535950 536939
 0.25 437663 437659 436656 434652 433650 431648 428647 426647
      424648 423652 423655 424658 426661 428663 430665 432666
      436665 437663
 0.25 435097 435095 434094 434092 433092 431091 430090 428091
      428092 429094 431096 431097 432098 434098 435097
 0.25 350969 350966 348963 344960 339957 334955 327945 321943
      314945 311950 308955 301963 301966 303968 308969 309977
      312982 321976 326973 332972 337971 343973 348972 350969
 0.50 532939 531931 528924 523922 520926 516931 514937 512947
      515952 520955 523956 527955 529949 531941 532939
 0.50 502954 503952 502950 501952 500954 501956 502955 502954
 0.50 500926 499916 497908 495899 493893 491889 487886 481886
      477887 475890 471895 467901 462907 456910 450914 438919
      431919 424918 417916 408916 394913 394904 391899 385897
      380898 373897 368897 365899 362902 362906 364913 368918
      372922 384929 387935 389939 389941 387950 383956 377968
      373974 369978 370983 373984 382985 386986 387990 386997
      382002 381005 381008 394011 401995 402985 401977 400972
      398969 392971 389966 388961 389958 392955 396956 399957
      403957 411945 417945 423947 435954 440958 445964 448970
      451979 455983 460982 463976 465974 468974 472975 475974
      481970 484964 484954 482945 484939 489934 494935 498936
      500932 500926
 0.50 427874 424855 416843 408834 401825 394821 387821 381819
      374822 372819 376814 379808 381800 380794 378791 373787
      361782 354782 349786 344790 339793 332796 326800 315807
      305815 297824 291827 287832 279844 274855 269865 269898
      269902 272904 277901 287893 292889 295888 298889 300892
      303893 307889 311885 316881 320879 327876 335876 336878
      335881 332888 327893 325899 325902 328904 331904 337898
      341894 348892 352887 356879 365872 369869 375866 385874
      393885 397885 400882 403882 418881 424878 427874
 0.50 343967 341963 336963 332962 327962 323963 319966 316969
      316971 321972 325970 328968 334968 339968 343967
 0.50 324949 323946 319946 316947 314949 314952 312955 310958
      312960 314960 316958 317956 319953 322952 324949
 1.00 486907 486904 485903 485902 483900 482900 480901 479902
      479904 478905 478907 478910 479912 480913 482912 484910
      484909 485908 486907
 1.00 447949 445947 442946 436942 437939 435936 435930 432927
      428926 421924 416925 414927 413932 415935 421939 428940
      435943 440948 443950 447950 447949
 1.00 394849 394842 392838 387836 385836 382839 381845 380850
      381855 385858 389859 392859 393858 393851 394849
 1.00 374801 372796 367795 360795 355798 337808 334812 333815
      333818 336819 336823 333826 325829 321827 315826 311823
      305825 296831 288837 282844 282848 285849 289845 298839
      299842 296846 291854 286866 281875 278884 276890 275896
      280894 283891 287888 291884 295874 297870 303868 306867
      310867 310870 305879 304885 307886 314879 318875 323872
      327869 332866 336863 338858 337855 339853 345853 348867
      350870 352870 355868 362862 366859 369858 367856 362853
      356852 355845 356838 357833 360828 365820 369815 371810
      374801
 1.00 374914 374911 373910 372909 371907 371906 370905 369904
      368905 368907 367908 367909 367910 369911 369912 371913
      372914 373914 374914
 1.00 332895 331895 329896 329897 331896 332895
 1.50 371802 367800 365800 358806 353808 350811 348814 347820
      344828 343834 343837 344839 348840 352838 355830 360823
      366816 368812 369806 371802
 1.50 334843 333841 329843 319844 316845 314844 317838 318832
      313831 308836 302842 298848 294855 293860 295862 296863
      299863 302860 308863 313863 313867 311875 307882 311879
      317873 323868 327863 332861 333859 331857 331854 332849
      334843
 1.50 295868 293867 292868 291868 290869 289870 288872 288873
      287874 286875 285877 287878 288877 288876 289874 290874
      291872 292871 293870 294869 295868
 1.50 285881 286879 285878 284879 285881 285881
 2.00 366811 365807 362808 358810 355813 352816 350820 349824
      348831 351833 353830 356826 359823 361820 364816 366812
      366811
 2.00 328850 323849 320849 314849 312852 313855 311858 316856
      319855 319860 318866 321866 323862 326857 327853 328850
 3.00 361816 361815 359816 357818 356819 356820 355821 356822
      358822 359821 359820 360819 361817 361816