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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1827Z Nov 28, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 29/0000 UTC THRU NOV 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND JUST OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PIVOT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. A RATHER DEEP SOUTHWEST FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER WA/OR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE AXIS THEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY TO INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEED ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO WHICH IS
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER DRIVER OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THIS POINT HAS
BEEN THE ROBUST SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET/ONSHORE FLOW AND
CORRESPONDING 850/700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE MODELS HOWEVER
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOISTURE PLUME SETTLES SOUTH AND
EAST. SO...THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A SLACKENING OF THE
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS FAVOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST
U.S....WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
RANGES OF SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA WHERE WATER EQUIVS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WPC QPF LEANED RATHER STRONGLY TOWARD THE
HIGHER SREF GUIDANCE WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED FOR TOPOGRAPHY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A STREAK OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INVOLVING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THOUGH WILL BE FAVORED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONGER.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 536045 536029 537021 536014 536999 533989 526966 522954
      522946 523941 524935 525931 525918 525911 524906 523890
      525881 527871 529860 531849 531841 532835 531827 530820
      529812 527807 525797 520786 513778 508773 500772 492771
      488769 484766 478764 470768 462769 456766 453764 449765
      445766 443769 440770 440762 438756 437749 436746 434744
      432746 431749 431754 431761 430763 429761 423754 421749
      416748 413750 414758 420792 415797 413805 415811 416818
      418821 417825 415830 416835 419848 421858 423872 433889
      437899 444904 448911 452912 455914 458917 460922 463929
      467935 472940 476942 479946 482954 483959 484967 485973
      485980 487987 486994 485005 486011 486020 486024 484026
      483017 483012 478009 475007 473007 469014 466022 462033
      458042 456046 455052 454056 454063 448065 445067 443072
      446078 449083 450085 449089 446092 442091 436091 433092
      429089 427087 424088 423096 422101 418103 414112 411113
      410110 409107 407109 404114 405118 412122 417127 418132
      418138 420142 421144 423143 427134 432126 435123 439120
      441124 441130 434135 429144 425154 424158 422157 420152
      418152 416156 413163 414167 413171 411176 411182 412186
      411193 408196 406201 402203 400199 394195 387194 380189
      374188 370190 370196 370200 370203 369206 366209 363211
      360216 355226 355233 355238 355243 356248 360254 362257
      365257 373256 377255 381255 385258 388258 396259 403262
      405271 410278 418275 424271 431265 437259 443254 453253
      463253 467255 470254 480257 483258 487257 490257 493254
      494251 493247 492243 495241 504242 506238 505234 506227
      505221 505214 501211 500199 501192 503192 509191 512189
      516185 519182 521167 518158 517149 516139 518111 523085
      524081 525075 529066 531060 533053 536045
 0.01 477200 479193 478187 476183 474186 470190 466192 463193
      461198 462203 466205 470203 473201 477200 477200
 0.01 484057 484055 483053 481052 480054 480057 480059 480062
      479064 481067 482065 482062 483060 484057
 0.01 485042 485040 484037 483040 483042 484045 485042
 0.01 393860 392853 390851 386852 383856 378862 373871 371874
      368877 364885 363890 364894 368897 371896 374891 376888
      381880 386874 389870 391866 393860
 0.25 505163 507155 507147 507140 504135 499128 496124 495120
      494113 492109 488106 484106 479106 475104 470103 465103
      459102 455100 452096 448094 443096 438095 434097 431096
      430098 430101 429104 425107 422111 419115 419117 427122
      430122 433119 436116 442117 445120 449119 455114 459111
      462111 467115 468121 467128 465132 457134 454138 452142
      447144 444144 441143 438140 435143 433149 432154 445170
      448174 449179 448183 448188 453189 456187 460185 464181
      464177 463173 458171 459166 463165 464170 468174 474175
      478176 483177 490180 494176 500172 503168 505163
 0.25 515009 515988 514976 513968 510960 507953 503949 502952
      501957 500967 500975 501987 501993 500998 499018 498031
      499040 501048 503047 505043 509035 511030 513020 514011
      515009
 0.25 487215 486211 483208 479208 474208 469211 465212 462211
      458212 454212 448210 445212 430209 423204 420206 421210
      423214 422217 419216 416213 406210 400204 394200 389199
      381194 378196 377199 377203 377208 375214 370217 366220
      364224 364233 365236 367239 373244 408254 412257 413261
      415265 418265 428254 434250 441246 447243 453240 456239
      459235 461231 465228 470223 472221 476221 484220 487215
 0.25 503862 501857 499852 497840 492833 485828 480829 477832
      475836 474840 475855 475870 477875 479878 487874 490871
      494869 501865 503862
 0.25 401223 400222 399221 397222 396222 397223 398224 400224
      401223
 0.50 501150 501144 498138 493130 489127 485124 480124 477125
      473127 471135 472141 474143 477143 479144 480146 479148
      476147 471147 468144 462142 458143 455147 452149 446149
      442146 439143 435145 434151 435157 438160 444161 447164
      450168 453166 456162 458158 461159 464161 466165 469170
      489170 491167 495162 500154 501150
 0.50 459222 459218 458216 455214 451213 442215 430216 423222
      425227 424229 421228 418228 415228 415224 415217 412215
      408214 405212 401207 396203 391201 385199 382197 380199
      380201 382209 382214 381220 377226 374232 376237 381239
      393244 405248 412250 415252 419253 423252 427250 436244
      440240 441234 445230 451227 458223 459222
 0.50 463178 463177 461176 459176 458177 457178 456179 456182
      457183 459183 460182 462181 462180 463178
 0.50 452112 452108 451105 449102 444099 441098 437098 434101
      432106 431111 435113 440113 444116 447116 450114 452112
 0.50 404226 404224 404222 403221 402220 401220 399219 397218
      395218 394217 392217 390218 390220 391223 392225 392226
      394227 396228 398228 399228 401228 401227 403226 404226
 1.00 490144 491142 492140 491137 489135 488134 488133 486132
      484132 483132 482133 481135 481137 482138 484139 485139
      487141 488144 489144 490144 490144
 1.00 478159 475158 473156 470154 468152 466149 464147 461147
      460151 462153 463155 467156 468159 470162 473162 475161
      478159
 1.00 449222 447219 443218 438218 435220 431221 427222 426225
      429229 432231 435230 438228 441227 444225 448223 449222
 1.00 429243 430235 427233 422234 415232 411231 408232 404235
      400237 399240 403241 409243 416246 421248 425246 429243
 1.00 403216 402212 400211 398208 395206 394205 390203 388203
      387208 389210 391211 394213 398215 399216 403216
 1.50 428242 428239 425237 421236 418235 414235 412235 412239
      414241 417243 419244 421245 423245 426244 428242
 2.00 426242 426240 424239 423238 421238 419237 418237 417239
      417240 418242 419242 420243 422244 424244 426243 426242