Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0646Z Nov 22, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 22/1200 UTC THRU NOV 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DAY 1 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THIS AND VERY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL TX---EASTWARD INTO EAST TX---EASTERN OK AND MOST OF
LOUISIANA.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE. 
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION MOVES DOWNSTREAM.  THE DAY 1 QPF IS FAVORING THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION OF THE UKMET---GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF
OVER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM AND HI RES ARW/NMM.   THE HI RES ARW
AND NMM OFTEN ARE SLOW WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
DOWNSTREAM---WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/UKMET TYPE SOLUTION OFTEN
PERFORMING BETTER.  THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM BEING VERY
HEAVY AND LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH FFG VALUES. 

EASTERN GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA

WELL AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW---LOW LEVEL SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING INTO THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO---WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT.

MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES

A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WILL
SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER LAKES.  THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
.10-.25" PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS---WITH THE DAY 1 QPF
NOT DEVIATING FROM THIS CONSENSUS. 

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES

NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. 
CONCENTRATED UVVS AND AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  VERY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
THESE AREAS--WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE WA/OREGON CASCADES/COAST
RANGE---NORTHERN SIERRA---WASATCH---TETONS AND BITTERROOTS.  FOR
QPF DETAILS THE NAM AND SSEO MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 547161 549148 550135 551119 552105 552091 549082 546072
      545066 545057 543029 541000 541993 539987 536976 534971
      533962 532956 532947 529926 528920 527914 523905 521902
      516902 510903 507913 506929 505942 505958 502985 500993
      498995 498010 490035 489040 488045 490049 489055 490060
      491063 489066 488071 487075 485080 481082 478084 474084
      467088 467094 466098 463098 458093 451089 433089 419076
      421070 424066 427062 430062 431066 434073 440076 447081
      451081 453078 454073 457069 462065 466054 467050 465045
      462035 457027 453025 450025 446027 443031 437036 434039
      433047 433055 429058 424055 420057 417058 413057 406054
      402054 398055 391060 382060 382063 379064 370061 365060
      364063 371069 372080 374088 374095 376098 383095 387093
      389092 392093 394099 394103 394106 390110 385112 378114
      377116 376122 378126 380130 388134 392140 390150 390160
      390164 388169 387175 389177 395178 397182 399187 400193
      397196 392196 385191 375185 366182 356181 351181 348182
      346184 345188 344194 347197 351191 354188 359188 365194
      368197 370201 370204 368207 364209 360210 356212 351218
      348220 345224 344230 348232 358237 369242 375238 382242
      391245 397249 402250 407251 415252 431252 449253 458253
      466252 471252 475255 480265 483273 488281 494289 498292
      502293 506293 508291 512285 517276 519270 520264 521255
      521249 519245 516242 514237 510228 507218 505214 502211
      497204 489200 485199 482201 477202 473204 468205 463206
      460206 458204 457201 458198 466185 467179 470175 472172
      475171 484172 491178 497184 502191 509196 512200 515206
      517211 520214 526220 530219 533217 538208 540203 542201
      542196 541190 542182 547161
 0.01 538762 537751 535746 534740 531731 528720 525711 521702
      517693 512686 510681 506677 500671 485668 481667 477669
      468674 466685 465689 462694 455706 451708 445709 438713
      437718 436723 437729 440729 444730 445734 444738 439740
      431738 431733 429731 425730 421732 420736 421743 410762
      408773 406785 403792 404797 402800 402804 401806 399809
      395816 391824 389833 390843 392847 393850 393854 392860
      391865 389870 386874 382883 376891 371898 365903 358899
      351895 346891 342886 338877 338872 339867 341858 344851
      349844 351840 352835 353830 352827 348818 335804 324790
      319784 312777 300772 293771 289772 286774 281781 279784
      279789 278793 273793 265792 257791 248794 244797 242800
      240811 240821 243823 247822 252821 258821 265827 267833
      269837 270842 272845 271851 272862 274884 274890 276894
      277903 255929 251937 247945 244949 240951 240957 242962
      242966 244969 248974 253980 257986 262992 267997 280007
      286012 292016 300022 304024 311025 317025 321024 325021
      328018 338006 355982 361974 363971 366969 371968 376968
      379966 382965 385961 389959 396954 402948 407945 410941
      416935 421928 427921 429919 431914 436898 437892 437887
      440878 443868 446860 448855 448851 451840 451834 452828
      454818 454803 455798 454792 453785 454779 456769 457764
      460758 464750 468742 471742 474743 476744 476747 476752
      475763 477775 481774 486775 488776 492779 497786 495798
      497804 500807 503810 508810 511812 514812 515809 522803
      524800 528799 529796 532796 535792 537783 538762
 0.01 518146 518136 516129 513124 512120 509118 496115 493111
      488106 484103 478105 473108 472110 473113 474117 476119
      480124 484126 489131 497139 508146 509148 512147 518146
 0.01 398225 399222 398222 397221 395220 394219 394218 392218
      390217 389218 388219 387219 388220 389222 391223 393224
      395224 396224 398225 398225
 0.25 543127 543122 542119 538114 533098 531090 530081 530058
      530039 530032 529019 526013 527001 526989 525978 524971
      521963 519961 517964 515973 514983 515992 516998 516005
      515017 514035 515043 515049 513053 507065 504070 502075
      501080 501090 503097 513105 521117 530127 533130 537130
      543127
 0.25 532203 532192 530183 526177 518173 512170 509169 506172
      506177 508182 512187 516193 521200 526205 530206 532203
 0.25 512274 516262 515255 514250 510240 505233 501225 498217
      496212 493209 488206 483206 476207 470209 462211 455214
      439215 424220 422222 422224 426227 429235 425237 420235
      411230 408229 404230 400228 395228 388224 384223 382227
      386234 389236 393237 404238 411244 420247 428247 446246
      452245 460243 463242 469244 477249 481255 486263 490272
      496280 500284 503286 506285 510279 512274
 0.25 502254 502249 500243 495236 491227 482223 474222 471223
      469226 469230 471231 476230 479234 482239 487238 493244
      498253 501255 502254
 0.25 501718 501716 499711 497709 495709 492709 488710 485711
      485715 486719 488721 490722 492723 495724 497725 500724
      501721 501718
 0.25 484136 482131 478129 472127 467128 455129 452130 450133
      448140 444141 439139 436135 434132 434127 437121 439119
      444120 447121 451119 459113 460109 459106 456102 453097
      445095 442094 438095 433092 429089 426087 424088 425094
      428099 422102 420104 418108 417109 413109 411104 409100
      406102 403108 397108 387114 381116 383120 386123 390120
      393119 396120 400125 403127 406127 413127 416131 418137
      418141 415146 404148 401149 400152 402159 407163 412165
      416165 421163 425160 429158 434160 439165 444167 448172
      449178 445181 442184 442188 444191 450195 452195 454193
      460184 463181 464176 462174 458174 456172 454166 458162
      465162 469163 473163 476160 481150 482141 484136
 0.25 444754 443752 440750 436751 432756 434764 435773 434778
      432785 433790 435792 437784 439777 440771 441764 443757
      444754
 0.25 437808 437801 435795 433795 430799 428803 426808 425812
      424817 425820 427822 432819 434816 436811 437808
 0.25 414222 415215 412214 409213 406209 399204 391199 383193
      380191 376192 375196 376202 382209 389213 397218 402221
      405224 408227 412223 414222
 0.25 415073 414066 409062 404059 399062 396066 391069 385071
      383074 386076 392079 397078 403075 410075 415073
 0.25 374223 373221 373220 372219 370219 370220 371221 372222
      373223 374223
 0.25 384922 385918 384915 379911 371910 365913 358916 354917
      351915 347909 342905 334897 329893 323890 319888 319883
      317874 317865 320859 328850 331843 333836 331824 328814
      324808 320805 316802 310799 304798 296798 283804 280808
      281814 283823 281829 280836 281855 282867 285874 287878
      287882 287890 286897 283902 281908 277914 266924 261929
      257935 248959 248962 252962 255960 259961 266974 270978
      276982 279986 284992 293003 299007 304012 305014 309014
      317015 327007 337997 341990 344983 350972 357961 375938
      380930 384922
 0.25 279807 277803 274799 270798 266798 261798 255798 250800
      248804 250806 254806 260805 265805 269806 273808 278808
      279807
 0.50 506279 506273 506268 502262 499259 497255 493248 488242
      487241 485243 483248 485253 487260 491268 494275 500279
      503281 506279
 0.50 489218 489213 487211 482209 476209 470213 466214 460215
      447217 441218 434220 429221 426221 425223 436232 448229
      453226 460226 465224 469220 476220 483221 489218
 0.50 480244 480241 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233 472234
      472236 472239 473240 475242 476243 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 472156 471151 469148 462141 460137 455137 452146 450151
      445152 438149 436151 437158 438161 443161 446160 451159
      454157 460158 468160 471158 472156
 0.50 462178 461177 459177 458177 457179 455181 453182 452183
      451183 450185 449185 450185 450188 451188 453189 453188
      455187 455186 457184 458182 459182 460180 461180 462178
 0.50 449114 449109 447104 445101 441098 438098 435096 428089
      426089 426093 431101 429104 426103 422105 421110 418112
      413111 410108 407107 391113 388115 391117 395116 399118
      402121 407123 412123 417125 422132 424132 425130 427125
      432118 435115 440114 445116 449114
 0.50 427242 426240 426239 424239 423238 421238 419237 418237
      417237 418237 418240 419240 420241 422242 424242 426243
      427242
 0.50 403216 404213 402209 399206 394202 387199 383195 378194
      377198 378202 382206 387210 393213 397216 401218 403216
 0.50 412071 412070 411068 410067 408067 407067 405067 405068
      406070 408072 410071 412071 412071
 0.50 372929 372925 372921 366920 359922 355925 349930 343936
      339941 334943 329945 328943 328939 330933 334926 337919
      337910 333904 328900 316897 312893 310886 310875 313867
      318853 319840 318833 316824 312817 308812 302808 295808
      290811 289814 288818 287825 285831 285852 286860 287868
      291881 291890 289897 286905 283912 275922 259939 257945
      257948 260951 265951 268952 270955 271960 272966 275972
      278977 283981 290994 295000 302002 305005 307011 318011
      338991 343980 350967 366943 370936 372929
 1.00 502272 501268 500265 499263 496260 495258 493255 492252
      491249 490252 491255 491258 492262 493265 495268 496270
      499273 502272
 1.00 482214 480213 479213 478213 479214 480214 482214
 1.00 421116 420116 419115 417115 415115 413115 412115 410115
      409115 408114 407113 405113 404114 405115 405116 406117
      408118 410118 411119 413120 415120 417119 418119 419119
      420117 421116
 1.00 396210 395207 394206 392205 392204 390204 389203 387202
      385201 385200 384200 383200 382202 383204 385206 386207
      388207 389208 390208 391209 393210 395211 396210
 1.00 365938 365933 362931 357931 353933 346938 341945 332959
      328961 323961 317954 315951 316946 321939 322933 322930
      320928 310926 309923 311919 311914 310908 305900 302895
      298894 293899 289906 285915 281925 278931 278935 278954
      291986 296994 300996 304996 312992 319990 321992 326993
      330991 333987 337980 346965 351958 357951 365938
 1.00 309852 310841 308833 304826 300825 297826 293831 291839
      291849 293857 297866 301867 306861 309854 309852
 1.50 354943 354940 352939 348941 345944 342947 340952 338956
      337962 339963 342960 345958 348955 350952 352947 354943
 1.50 334971 335966 330966 319966 314960 308956 308945 314939
      315936 312934 305938 297939 290944 286950 286955 288960
      289968 292972 295973 300974 299978 297981 296987 297991
      301993 308988 314984 319979 325977 329978 332974 334971
 1.50 303846 303842 303838 302836 299834 298834 297836 296840
      296844 295847 296851 297853 300854 302852 303848 303846
 1.50 303971 304968 303968 302971 303971 303971
 1.50 300918 300912 299907 296903 293904 291908 289912 288916
      287922 286927 288929 292927 295925 298922 300918