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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0635Z Feb 01, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 01/1200 UTC THRU FEB 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MID MS VALLEY---LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STATE

HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  ALL MODELS BRING THE ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY DAY 1 AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OH RIVER BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY--INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  THERE
ARE ONLY SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE QPF AXES IN THE
MODELS---LEADING TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

OH VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION

TO THE SOUTH OF THE OVERRUNNING HEAVY SNOW AXIS---MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS LARGE REGIONS FROM THE
OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
PW VALUES 1-1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS
WILL SUPPORT THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS. 
DIFFERENCES MODEL QPF WISE ACROSS THESE AREA ARE MOSTLY WITH
TIMING--WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTIONS FAVORED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

TWO AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL AFFECT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DAY 1.  THE LEAD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UVV/RH MAX WILL PUSH INLAND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST U.S.--FOLLOWED BY A SECOND UVV/RH MAX APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD. 
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
LEAD SYSTEM---SUPPORTING GENERALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS FROM WA/OREGON COAST RANGES AND
CASCADES---INLAND OVER NORTHEAST OREGON--NORTHERN ID---NORTHWEST
MT AND FAR EASTERN ID/NORTHWEST WY.  ADDITIONAL MODERATE PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY 2 AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 545180 547170 547160 547153 547145 545133 542124 539118
      536114 531104 528097 524096 519093 515092 514094 510097
      509105 509114 510120 513129 518138 521144 519150 515151
      512149 510146 506145 500142 492134 491132 489130 484127
      479126 476125 475123 475115 477110 477103 475096 472090
      469093 465097 461099 459100 457098 450092 447093 444092
      440091 432088 428086 425089 424092 426097 425099 423100
      419102 419107 420110 415113 413111 412108 411103 407101
      407110 406116 410120 413122 415121 418123 419127 418135
      417149 412160 416163 418167 418170 416172 415177 418180
      423184 427188 435195 441202 444206 447205 453200 460191
      467183 471184 474186 477190 479197 479203 475206 471207
      461208 455212 447214 436214 430215 426217 422220 420227
      416230 410230 402228 399232 396237 395241 398245 403245
      404249 404252 406256 411257 418257 423257 446259 451259
      457260 466265 470267 474270 477279 482291 488299 491303
      498306 503304 507301 512289 517278 521266 524254 533228
      536221 538212 540204 542195 545180
 0.01 225058 228063 234067 240068 247068 243048 249046 255043
      257037 258027 258022 262021 268024 276024 280018 282013
      282003 282001 279999 275997 271993 273987 277981 283992
      287999 288007 292022 294025 294029 299033 302036 303028
      303023 302021 302013 300007 300000 299997 299993 301987
      304979 306976 309977 313983 317988 321990 328991 332991
      335988 341985 348976 357969 361967 365967 370967 380968
      383970 388971 393975 401981 407986 412990 422999 427004
      430004 432007 436007 437009 444010 446009 446003 447995
      447978 447954 447945 446935 445915 445904 443894 442873
      443862 443856 443847 441841 441832 441825 442814 445807
      448797 449787 449755 448745 447734 446725 444722 443718
      442711 438705 432696 428691 424687 421685 417685 409687
      406688 403687 396689 390691 381694 378696 376698 372703
      364712 357720 350729 342739 338742 335747 320771 316777
      314783 307793 295811 288820 283832 271859 260880 256890
      253895 251901 237957 233967 232973 231979
 0.01 441134 442130 440125 435123 432126 430129 427132 424136
      423143 423147 428148 433147 435143 437138 439136 441134
 0.01 426063 425058 423055 418061 411056 408053 402053 399054
      398060 399064 398071 397074 400078 404080 408079 412079
      416081 419079 422074 425065 426063
 0.25 534214 534207 534197 533189 531181 528176 523172 519170
      514170 509167 503165 499167 497169 496174 498180 502185
      510194 517204 523216 526220 529221 531219 534214
 0.25 517267 518260 517256 513245 510237 505227 502219 499214
      496210 489207 484207 479208 473211 465214 460219 457221
      458225 463227 466226 473221 478221 482222 487225 490227
      494236 500244 504252 507263 511270 516269 517267
 0.25 507282 506275 504268 501262 498257 493245 489240 485238
      482239 479233 476231 474231 469235 465238 469243 473248
      479251 486261 492273 495278 500282 504284 507282
 0.25 482160 477153 473144 470142 465139 462138 458139 456142
      453147 450150 446152 444156 447162 450164 455164 459164
      462167 471168 478165 482160
 0.25 482138 482137 482135 481134 479132 478131 476131 474131
      472133 471135 471138 472139 473140 475140 477140 478139
      479139 480139 482138 482138
 0.25 465239 462234 460233 457234 447229 450224 445222 441223
      434227 434233 438232 437236 434239 432237 430239 432243
      436245 445246 452244 459241 465239
 0.25 463178 463176 461174 460175 459176 458177 457178 456179
      455181 454184 455184 456184 457184 458183 459183 460182
      462181 462179 463178
 0.25 446111 444108 439108 435108 432106 427105 424108 426110
      430113 433117 436114 440113 444113 446111
 0.25 436797 435781 434766 433759 432752 429743 424732 417724
      410718 406717 401717 396719 392718 383718 376719 369724
      362731 356739 344755 338762 335767 335773 338777 341777
      347772 360759 368758 371758 372761 369771 365781 361789
      356795 350800 334811 327819 320827 315834 312838 308840
      299842 295844 293847 283862 280867 277872 273882 272886
      273892 278893 282891 296883 300882 307881 312879 312883
      311890 309895 306905 303915 303925 304931 306934 308943
      310947 312954 315956 319956 319962 324962 329954 334945
      339939 351927 357920 366914 371911 376911 382910 387911
      390913 393917 394931 397939 401947 404950 409949 412949
      416946 421937 424924 426912 428900 431890 432880 433865
      433851 434821 434806 436797
 0.25 258004 259000 257996 252992 248986 244982 240981 237982
      235984 235987 234995 232003 234011 236013 241012 247008
      254007 258004
 0.50 511263 511259 510255 508249 505243 503236 500230 498224
      496222 495225 497232 500238 502238 505245 506253 508259
      511263
 0.50 502275 501272 501271 500269 499269 498266 498263 497262
      496262 495265 496268 497271 498274 499274 500275 502277
      502275
 0.50 488218 488216 487214 486213 486212 484211 482211 481211
      479211 477212 476212 475213 474214 473215 472216 473218
      475218 476218 478218 480218 481218 483218 485218 486219
      488218
 0.50 479241 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 473237 474238
      474239 475241 476242 478242 479241
 0.50 472218 471217 470217 468217 469218 471218 472218
 0.50 430795 429787 427777 424765 418746 415740 411735 405732
      398735 394738 391742 389750 391760 394766 398772 397780
      396787 391791 388792 382789 378790 377793 367803 358812
      354815 351817 348815 341815 335818 331823 328831 322842
      316850 304858 299862 293864 289869 286874 290873 296874
      300873 304873 312871 320870 322872 323877 324889 325896
      330895 333897 333902 334911 333918 333922 336921 349917
      359913 381899 388896 395895 401897 405900 410903 414900
      418895 423888 425882 427875 427859 428838 428817 429805
      430795
 1.00 364829 363823 361820 358821 354824 347830 343837 339845
      338856 339860 344860 351856 358850 362843 362836 364829