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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0551Z Oct 02, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM SECONDARY FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME FROM THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
THIS PERIOD IN A REGION OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN
AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
(1.50-1.75"). CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF AN
EAST-WEST COMPOSITE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO OVERNIGHT WHERE TRAINING IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION
IS IN PROGRESS DUE TO BROAD 25+ KT 850 HPA INFLOW INTERSECTING THE
BOUNDARY.  THIS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN
ACTIVE UNTIL ~16Z AS A POOL OF 1000+ J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO.  UPSTREAM CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS AREA, POTENTIALLY PROLONGING ISSUES ACROSS MO.  THE GUIDANCE
WAS LESS CONSISTENT REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES, SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON CONTINUITY
IN THESE REGIONS.  ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 00Z WPC QPF MADE ACROSS THIS
REGION WERE LARGEST PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS MO, AND SMALLER
ELSEWHERE PER THE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE.


SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  DETAIL ISSUES PERSIST, BUT ON THE WHOLE, THE
GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
RAIN AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE HERE PER RECENT GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 454626 458627 459629 460634 460640 459654 454666 451672
      448676 444681 441687 439692 437698 435705 431710 424718
      420723 418729 415734 411739 407739 405738 403734 400730
      398728 397724 391711 390708 389703 388695 387689 387679
      386670 387665 391660 390658 392657 405653 410649 417648
      419649 422648 426642 432636 439631
 0.01 542804 535789 525781 520776 512775 510777 506778 497780
      489782 484785 478788 471791 459800 453805 449811 444815
      437822 432825 424826 414828 406828 401829 397828 386829
      378830 374832 369833 365833 360832 354830 339832 330841
      327846 324855 321862 319865 315866 310865 308862 303856
      301852 298851 288851 283854 278861 275867 271873 268878
      269886 276898 277903 276908 274918 271933 266948 259964
      261970 266977 268981 266985 264992 260007 260011 261013
      264013 267016 274015 277014 280014 283017 289018 293014
      295011 300011 306011 309009 317005 322001 344986 368973
      370971 371976 372981 371985 364996 367005 368008 373009
      379010 387007 401002 413997 422987 426981 428978 429973
      429961 428954 430948 435945 440941 443938 444933 446928
      449927 457924 464922 468921 472922 475930 471937 467944
      461954 455969 457975 457981 460991 462993 462998 460003
      460008 461013 466021 480027 482030 487031 491033 491036
      488043 486051 486062 488069 490073 494074 500072 503071
      505073 513077 521079 528079 533073 536066 538062 539055
      540050 539045 537037 534029 534001 532994 529989 528978
      525969 514934 512930 512923 513913 517903 519897 521892
      527881 531873 533864 541826 542804
 0.01 519274 521263 520258 518249 515244 512239 508233 505234
      503236 502242 503250 502253 499253 497253 495251 491246
      490244 487244 486246 486249 488256 490262 493268 497273
      500278 504282 511284 514283 519274
 0.01 508151 508143 505140 498133 493126 488116 485104 484098
      481093 476086 473083 468082 466082 466086 465093 465097
      462099 459098 457097 455094 455091 458085 458081 455076
      451074 448068 448062 448054 450048 448043 448039 440032
      439027 436022 431016 428015 427013 423013 419016 416015
      409014 407018 406022 406025 406033 406039 408045 409050
      409057 410063 413067 416069 423070 428071 431075 433079
      433083 432085 428089 428093 440105 446108 451108 458109
      460114 463125 467132 479150 484152 490153 494154 499157
      501158 504156 508151
 0.01 310816 306809 302800 299796 293795 287789 283785 280781
      273774 265771 254773 249776 246779 243789 238811 237822
      245825 252818 255815 259816 263819 267821 278824 282823
      287825 300823 305823 308821 310816
 0.25 514035 515033 514032 512032 514035 514035
 0.25 505852 506837 504825 503821 503815 501805 498802 494800
      489801 476806 462813 450824 445829 438833 425841 412848
      405851 394853 379855 363854 355851 348850 345851 342855
      338862 334870 329876 322886 319888 313888 309890 308893
      306902 305907 303911 296923 294926 292930 289937 285952
      284963 286974 289980 296982 301982 305980 312979 326973
      333971 343969 349971 356968 363963 368960 371958 375959
      381963 387965 396970 404972 412970 417966 418962 417958
      416945 418936 422928 427921 431915 437909 442905 448903
      464899 471896 478891 484888 489884 495878 499872 503860
      505852
 0.25 447643 445641 442642 436648 432654 427659 420664 417666
      413666 406671 401676 398684 397688 398693 402701 406706
      409708 414706 418702 426688 430682 434675 439660 443652
      447646 447643
 0.25 267804 268802 269800 266800 265800 263800 261801 259802
      258803 258805 260807 262807 263807 265806 267804 267804
 0.50 493838 492820 487816 484816 481817 474820 467822 460824
      455828 450832 445836 432843 422848 408854 403857 396859
      380864 374865 368864 355860 351860 348862 344867 336880
      329891 326897 322902 314911 310916 305922 299932 296939
      295943 296947 305954 304962 307969 312972 318970 330962
      336960 340963 347965 351965 354964 366957 372954 377953
      381954 384955 388959 391961 395961 400956 403952 407944
      408936 411931 417918 421912 427907 446890 453887 458886
      467883 473880 488859 492848 493838
 0.50 414684 414683 412682 411683 410684 410685 409688 410690
      411691 413690 413689 414687 414686 414684
 1.00 473845 474841 472838 469838 458842 449845 441847 431851
      422855 405863 397867 389874 383880 377887 363900 356907
      353914 334941 337938 341936 344939 346944 346947 347948
      351948 352950 354954 357954 363952 366950 375945 383946
      391950 394946 396942 401932 404923 408914 414906 421898
      426891 432884 446871 453864 458859 469853 472848 473845
 1.00 358883 359880 358876 354876 350878 347881 345884 343888
      341893 341896 342899 347898 351896 354892 356889 358885
      358883
 1.50 440858 424862 403869 395876 391881 389886 381894 374901
      368911 364919 380934 383937 387941 391938 393933 396927
      399922 403912 405906 408900 414891 416886 418879 421874
      425872 429868 436866 440858
 2.00 403894 401891 397891 391895 385899 380904 375909 374912
      378913 382918 386924 389927 391925 394919 399913 401903
      403896 403894