Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1852Z Nov 19, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 20/0000 UTC THRU NOV 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES...

THE WELL DEFINED BUT PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF MOVING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE
ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC AND GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BE A RENEWED UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS..ESPECIALLY LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  VERY
FAVORABLE/LONG TRAJECTORY FLOW ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
INDICATE ANOTHER LOCALLY VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN SOME
OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIONS SHARE IN THE LAST EVENT
YESTERDAY.  STUCK CLOSER TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION QPF GUIDANCE
REGARDING THESE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS LEE OF THE LAKES.  PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL HERE.


...WEST COAST...

THE MID LEVEL TROF COMING INTO THE WEST COAST AT THIS TIME IS
FORECAST SIMILARLY BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES THIS PERIOD..INTO THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE POSTION. 
ON ITS HEELS..THE NEXT CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF 140W WILL BE
REACHING WESTERN OR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN CA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL WON'T HAVE A REAL LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH IT..BUT IMPROVING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH IT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAINS THRUOUT
MUCH OF WESTERN OR AND IN PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERN CA..WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT BETTER.  STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
QPF GUIDANCE THIS ENTIRE REGION..ALL OF WHICH SHOWED AT LEAST SOME
0.25-0.50+ INCH RAINS/WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 


THE ONLY OTHER AREAS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT
RAINS/WATER EQUIVALENTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN TX..IN
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME..IN THE FL
STRAITS/JUST SOUTHEAST OF FL IN THE HIGH PW AXIS..AND OVER
DOWNEAST ME ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY.


TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 520271 521261 519252 513236 510230 507223 498210 493207
      485206 478208 472208 453203 452199 453197 455195 461191
      465187 469180 485179 489175 491173 491168 489159 484155
      472148 470145 467144 461146 456147 452146 444144 438148
      436150 435155 430158 426159 424157 421154 418156 414160
      413170 415177 394193 389194 385193 378189 371188 369192
      370197 373200 375201 374204 367206 361203 357203 353205
      352210 353213 357219 359221 360224 364232 368237 377248
      378254 383260 391264 400265 413270 421270 427270 432268
      437264 445264 454266 467265 473263 477264 480266 483268
      484273 487275 488278 491287 493290 495293 499296 503296
      511295
 0.01 499865 499860 497858 493855 487844 481832 479825 478815
      480797 481782 482778 483772 483764 484750 483740 482733
      478726 475724 471720 466717 462716 459719 456727 453732
      448736 444738 438738 435741 431747 429752 418773 414779
      410784 406782 401786 383800 378805 375810 374816 374819
      375821 377839 381838 383832 386828 390831 395828 403827
      407827 408829 413833 416837 417846 417863 417868 419870
      423872 430872 437871 442870 445869 447870 452872 456877
      459893 460901 463906 465909 469908 475907 482898 488887
      494876 497870 499865
 0.01 481662 480654 479650 477648 474646 469643 465642 460641
      451641 445642 440645 432650 425660 418668 412675 406684
      404689 403694 403699 405700 406706 412713 415715 417714
      421711 429707 437698 439694 445691 449688 455688 457686
      461681 468674 475668 481662
 0.01 488939 488934 487931 486927 485924 484922 481921 479922
      478927 479930 480934 482937 484939 486940 488939
 0.01 469694 468690 464691 460693 457695 451700 446705 440710
      437712 435715 436721 438724 445723 451718 455712 461707
      465702 468699 469694 469694
 0.01 451107 451105 449102 446101 443101 441101 437102 437105
      435107 436110 436112 440113 443114 445116 447114 449114
      450109 451107
 0.01 413108 413104 414099 413096 412094 408093 406095 406098
      405102 404104 403109 403112 405115 408115 410113 411110
      413108
 0.01 310962 310950 305943 296943 292945 287945 279948 270951
      254957 250959 246960 244964 241966 235966 232967 231973
      233977 242978 248979 252981 262980 273982 282985 286985
      290983 294983 297981 303975 306971 308968 310962
 0.01 279765 278758 276753 272750 268750 259755 253761 247770
      242778 236786 232794 228803 225814 222823 223830 224835
      228839 231838 235834 236830 238825 241821 244820 246818
      249814 259797 263788 270781 275774 278770 279765
 0.25 517281 515275 515268 512263 509264 505256 502251 498248
      493246 490245 487246 486248 487252 490257 491263 494275
      496280 500285 506290 511288 514285 517281
 0.25 475240 473236 469235 465234 462235 455235 448234 445236
      441236 436235 432233 429233 420232 416231 414227 409222
      402209 396204 391203 389206 389210 392213 397218 402220
      406220 407225 406228 402227 399227 390227 384223 378217
      374216 371217 370221 371224 380236 386242 388249 394254
      398256 402256 407255 416256 423257 430256 441248 443244
      445243 451246 458246 461245 464243 475240
 0.25 471218 471216 468214 466214 463215 461216 459217 457219
      457222 460224 463224 465223 467221 469220 471218
 0.25 478872 479867 478862 476855 470843 467837 466829 463812
      462792 460783 458778 456776 453777 450781 442790 438791
      436787 435779 435775 432776 428776 427777 424784 420797
      419804 419809 421811 425813 431810 435815 437820 445829
      448833 450838 450843 448849 447852 448855 458859 464871
      467878 468881 471881 476878 478872
 0.25 451662 452659 450657 449658 448658 447658 445658 443658
      442658 440659 439660 439663 440665 441666 443666 444666
      445666 446667 448666 450665 450664 451662 451662
 0.25 452225 453220 450219 447218 444218 442218 440219 437223
      436226 435228 436230 440230 442228 445229 447228 450227
      452225
 0.25 446754 446746 443747 440750 437756 435760 434766 434771
      435774 437773 440771 443766 444761 446756 446754
 0.25 259778 259773 256771 251776 247782 243788 240793 237801
      236805 237810 241806 247802 251797 255791 257785 259778
 0.50 504278 505276 505273 504272 503270 501268 500267 499266
      498265 497264 496265 496267 496270 497273 497274 498276
      498277 500278 501279 503279 504278
 0.50 457803 457793 457788 455784 453783 452787 450792 449799
      448807 448812 449815 452821 455827 457828 457825 456815
      457805 457803
 0.50 429243 428241 427240 426239 424238 423238 421238 419237
      418236 416236 415236 414238 415240 417241 418242 420243
      422244 424244 425244 427244 429243 429243
 0.50 443759 443757 442755 440755 439757 439758 438760 438763
      439765 441763 442762 443760 443759
 0.50 430786 430783 429782 427783 427784 426785 425786 424789
      424791 423794 423795 423796 423799 424800 425798 427796
      427793 428792 428791 429788 429787 430786