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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1754Z Oct 20, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 21/0000 UTC THRU OCT 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

RATHER POTENT BUT QUICK MOVING S/WV TROF IS FCST TO LIFT RAPIDLY
NEWD FROM THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING INTO DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM..EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT PCPN AMOUNTS WITH THE
HEAVIER TOTALS ALONG AND N OF THE MID LEVEL VORT TRACK.  12Z
MODELS WERE GENLY IN AGREEMENT FOR SOME .50 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ACRS
THE CNTL ID AND WRN MT MTNS...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN A DRY OUTLIER
SOLN AND GENLY DISCOUNTED. SOME SNOW..IS PSBLY..MAINLY IN THE
HIEST TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOW.

SOUTHERN NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/FAR SOUTH
TX...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EVER SO SLOWLY EWD ACRS NRN MEX WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THRU THE PD.  ASSOCD WEAK MID/UPR FORCING AND UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL
ACT ON RETURN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING NWWD FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO SUPPORT SCTD DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS WRN
TX/NM INTO PARTS OF WRN CO.  MODEL SPREAD IS RATHER
LARGE..SUPPORTING MORE EMPHASIS TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE BLEND..THOUGH
IN GENL AREAL AVG AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN .50 INCH. 

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...

A SERIES OF S/WV IMPULSES DIGGING SEWD ACRS THE GT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY HELP CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/NRN
MID ATLC REGION BY TUES EVENING.   INITIAL WEAK LOW OVER THE GT
LAKES WILL GIVE WAY TO COLD AIR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID ATLC
COAST LATE TUES WITH STRENGTHENING SELY ONSHORE FLOW FEEDING
INCREASING MSTR INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASING TREND TOWARD AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST DESPITE INITIAL DEEP MSTR AXIS BEING WELL OFFSHORE. 
THIS TREND IS GENLY ACCEPTED WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN COMING
IN SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL EC WHICH WOULD PSBLY
ACCOUNT FOR THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN BEING A LITTLE DRIER ALONG THE
SRN MAINE COAST.  OTHER LIGHT TO MDT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO WRN PA ON THE NW SIDE OF SLOWLY EVOLVING
COMMA HEAD. 

FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTH FL...

THE BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD FOR THE KEYS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
1 AS HIGHER PW VALUES BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL STRENGTHEN UVVS IN THE
INCREASINGLY HIGH PW AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA--SUPPORTING THE
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN QPF
DETAILS---WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED THROUGH THE KEYS AND FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA--BUT EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL BEYOND THE DAY 1
PD.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml


24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 534209 535202 534195 531186 527179 525170 523166 520163
      518161 513160 508162 502160 499156 500148 498146 494143
      496136 498134 502129 513123 520120 524113 526109 526105
      520098 518095 515096 508097 500098 498099 495099 485097
      481096 479094 470090 465097 464100 460100 454095 449093
      440092 433091 427087 422101 419104 417108 413106 414100
      418081 417073 418062 416057 414054 412053 409053 406055
      402055 397053 393057 387061 380062 377063 375062 371061
      368057 370054 372053 372050 367048 363047 360044 359041
      356040 354043 351045 349041 347038 347032 347028 348024
      349021 347017 346018 345022 344028 337032 333032 331030
      327018 325014 322012 315007 311006 308009 305012 302010
      287005 281000 277993 275988 273980 276972 277968 276964
      274962 271962 266966 263968 259968 253967 246963 239960
      233965 231971 230977 231981 233983 236986 240990 242994
      251008 257015 259021 263031 265036 266041 267043 265047
      261049 259053 259059 265065 275069 281073 284075 287079
      292084 300089 309096 316101 315091 317085 323085 330091
      331094 333095 336098 340096 341091 343087 343083 344079
      345074 346070 345067 348066 350068 351072 348083 348090
      352091 359091 363092 366090 367085 370084 371086 375090
      378094 380099 384102 386105 385108 382113 377121 379124
      382126 391124 398129 402130 405128 409127 412130 415131
      417132 418130 421125 430128 433126 435125 436128 437134
      434137 428142 425144 420144 412145 409148 404149 399150
      395154 394160 392166 391172 394177 395182 399183 403181
      408180 410181 412183 413188 415192 415195 413197 407201
      404203 401203 395201 391198 386199 384203 387207 394214
      397218 401221 404224 403228 400232 401235 403245 415250
      418252 423253 422259 420264 416275 415282 416287 417290
      420292 424295 429297 432300 438302 444302 448301 451300
      456297 463292 469287 477284 479283 483286 494301 501304
      505303 508299 512295 523262 524254 522250 520245 518241
      516237 513232 512228 509224 507219 505216 503212 500208
      497205 495203 496200 498198 499196
 0.01 499196 501196 504197 506198 509199 512200 515203 516206
      518207 519210 522213 524214 527215 530216 532214 533211
      534209
 0.01 476179 475177 473176 471178 473180 474181 476179
 0.01 477807 477797 475790 470777 462754 460746 458741 457735
      457733 458731 461726 464723 466719 465712 466705 464702
      465699 464690 462688 461684 461676 461671 458666 456660
      453654 450654 446653 442654 437653 434656 424661 419665
      413667 404673 398676 395680 387686 374697 365703 360705
      356709 339724 336728 334734 329741 323749 320757 319767
      324769 329769 333768 336770 338776 340778 343777 347774
      361761 372748 375746 377746 378753 382755 385752 389748
      396746 400748 398751 396752 392754 387756 381759 377762
      374765 374769 376771 377774 379774 382778 381782 382786
      382791 378794 376801 373806 367814 360822 357826 355831
      355837 361841 366842 369839 375833 380829 383823 389822
      395824 399828 401834 404836 407835 413843 418853 420858
      419859 416862 412861 408861 405859 401857 398860 398864
      399866 407871 411873 416873 421874 426872 429870 431869
      432865 429862 426860 424855 423850 418846 416843 416839
      416834 417832 423830 432836 442835 447838 451838 455836
      457832 460828 465827 469826 472823 476813 477807
 0.01 470883 470878 469873 467873 466868 467863 467861 465861
      464863 464866 464871 463876 464879 466881 469883 470883
 0.01 468898 468895 468893 467895 466895 466898 465900 465903
      467905 467903 467900 468898 468898
 0.01 447231 445228 444228 442230 440231 439234 441235 442234
      443234 445233 447231
 0.01 436187 437184 437182 436180 435181 434182 433183 432184
      431185 432188 434188 435187 436187
 0.01 407733 407731 406729 404730 403732 402732 401733 399735
      401736 403736 405736 406735 407733
 0.01 277817 277813 275811 273808 271804 272801 271797 269793
      267792 263790 260789 254791 246797 239804 237810 235816
      233826 231832 231838 230842 231848 234862 235876 239888
      242892 245894 248895 251896 255895 256893 259890 261885
      265874 268863 276842 277817
 0.25 517278 519272 519265 518257 513243 506230 500218 497216
      494214 489213 483211 479213 478218 481221 487224 490229
      491234 489237 482237 479231 475230 473231 471234 468238
      465237 457236 453239 450244 455249 455258 454267 451274
      451281 452284 458282 466275 477267 480266 483268 487271
      497283 502287 507287 511286 514283 517278
 0.25 512178 511178 510177 509178 510178 511179 512178
 0.25 491124 483122 475120 466118 463119 461122 456128 450130
      441141 437142 435145 432152 432157 434161 440165 443168
      447170 454169 458162 461160 465160 468158 469154 469148
      473143 475142 479137 489126 491124
 0.25 456769 455766 452765 448769 445781 443781 441779 438776
      436771 435763 435754 432752 429752 424754 420758 416761
      410769 400788 392795 389799 389802 392802 396801 399802
      401807 403811 406815 411817 414818 417817 420814 423810
      429801 436794 440791 444791 445785 448787 453777 456769
 0.25 446196 447194 448192 448189 447189 446189 445189 444190
      443191 442192 441193 440193 438194 438197 439199 441200
      443199 444198 446197 446196
 0.25 445705 444693 441685 437681 432679 420675 414675 409677
      398686 388695 380706 371715 363725 358730 355735 353742
      352750 351756 356753 366744 376736 387726 396719 402715
      408712 415710 419712 425718 428724 433723 438718 444711
      445705
 0.25 427206 427204 426202 425202 423203 421203 420204 420207
      422209 424209 425208 426208 427206
 0.25 435102 434100 434099 432099 432101 433102 434103 435102
 0.25 334047 334045 334043 333042 331042 330042 329043 327044
      327046 325048 326051 327051 328051 329050 331049 333049
      334047
 0.25 322044 323035 321031 318028 311024 308024 305026 296028
      292031 290035 289039 291043 296049 300052 303053 311051
      320048 322044
 0.25 287024 287020 286018 283016 282015 280014 276013 272013
      269012 268015 269019 270021 272022 276024 277024 281025
      285025 287024
 0.25 267843 267833 264827 260822 257815 255808 252802 249801
      246802 242807 239813 237820 237827 237836 237844 237852
      242863 246871 250875 257871 260866 264854 267843
 0.50 516270 517265 517261 515256 510244 505234 499223 495220
      492225 493231 495236 497243 496245 493244 489242 485241
      481241 477235 474234 472240 469246 468253 462261 459267
      457270 457274 458277 462273 466268 470264 472261 477259
      484262 488267 494274 498280 502284 506284 509278 514274
      516270
 0.50 473133 473131 473130 471129 470130 470133 471133 472135
      473133
 0.50 465144 464140 462138 457137 455140 450144 445148 438145
      436149 436153 437156 441158 447161 451161 454159 458155
      461152 462147 465144
 0.50 441701 441696 440692 437689 428687 420682 414682 408683
      405685 401689 398699 383713 375720 367726 361736 362742
      363740 366739 370736 377730 386723 393716 411705 415701
      420698 425698 428702 430709 432712 434711 438709 441704
      441701
 0.50 419792 419787 419785 417782 415783 412786 411789 410791
      409794 407797 407801 410802 413800 415798 416796 418795
      419792
 0.50 260850 260842 259836 256825 252814 249809 246809 242812
      240816 239827 241839 243851 245859 247863 251866 254867
      257862 258857 260850
 1.00 509251 508248 507245 505242 504240 502241 503244 505247
      506249 507249 508251 509252 509251
 1.00 504278 503270 501264 498258 495253 491248 487246 485251
      488258 490263 495268 497273 501279 504278
 1.00 437702 438700 437699 436700 436701 435703 436704 437702
      437702
 1.00 417691 416690 415691 413691 412692 413692 415692 416691
      417691