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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0638Z Nov 01, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 01/1200 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WESTERN STATES...

THE TREND OF SPLITTING THE H5 TROF AS IT COMES INTO THE WEST COAST
CONTINUES THIS MODEL RUN..WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF
PUSHING WEAKLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WHILE THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROF SWINGS INTO CA AND NV BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. 
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWS WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN THE
EXPECTED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND FROM NORTHWESTERN NV
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MT..WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION QPFS
PREFERRED HERE.


...EASTERN STATES...

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A STRONG WESTERN U.S. H5
TROF..STRONG CENTRAL U.S. H5 RIDGING AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM H5 TROF
MOVING THRU AND OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A WET PERIOD FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD.  THRU AT LEAST THIS PERIOD..THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN
U.S. H5 TROF IS COMPRISED OF A VERY STRONG CLOSED H5 LOW WHICH
WILL SWING THRU SC EARLY TODAY AND BE OFF THE NC COAST BY
EVENING..BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.  PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAKER BUT
DEFINEABLE S/WV NOW JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COASTS..WITH THIS S/WV
FORECAST TO LIFT GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT HOURS.  VERY STRONG
FORCING/LIFT WITH THE SC/NC CLOSED H5 LOW WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
MORE ORGANIZED RAINS FROM CENTRAL SC/NC EASTWARD TO THE NC AND
NORTHERN SC COASTS..WITH A VERY NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWS
PERSISTING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BACK IN WESTERN NC/EXTREME
EASTERN TN BEHIND THE H5 CLOSED LOW.  AS FOR THE WEAKER DELMARVA
H5 S/WV..A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACOMPANYING IT WITH
SOME ATLANTIC INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THIS
LOW WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM NJ NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND..WITH RAINS EXPECTED UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INCREASING SNOWS FARTHER INLAND FROM VT INTO ME.  THE NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS QPFS WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST/TOO WET
INLAND..SO MANUAL QPF STUCK CLOSE TO THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED QPF AND THE UKMET HIRES QPF..BOTH OF WHICH SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS WESTERN OUTLIERS AND THE ECMWF
HIRES QPF WHICH WAS SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER.  PLEASE SEE
THE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/QPFHSD FOR THE SNOWFALL DETAILS.


TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 525256 521254 519251 515243 511238 503233 498234 495241
      493243 491242 489239 486239 483242 479246 473249 471254
      470258 471262 472267 465282 462285 461291 461295 462299
      465302 468304 476307 490307 497310 502315
 0.01 488613 498623 501628 504638 504647 505652 504656 503665
      501671 495684 487696 483700 478705 467712 454738 448749
      444757 441764 431790 426803 419816 411826 398830 386836
      372842 357845 354846 351848 347848 346845 347836 350829
      350825 347824 340824 336821 331815 327810 325803 321799
      318797 315796 308797 302793 299787 299782 297779 298771
      300766 299747 301740 304736 311726 320716 330708 339698
      342693 347687 355678 359673 365668 373658 384648
 0.01 530093 531082 529076 526073 523072 516071 511073 507076
      502079 497081 487084 479083 474085 467084 462084 459085
      449089 444090 437090 432089 430087 424083 421077 417073
      406072 405078 398080 395082 392080 388081 387084 384082
      382080 381076 384074 382072 379060 378055 376052 368052
      364056 360058 355057 351057 350058 348064 349066 352067
      359068 362074 364082 369086 372091 374095 371097 370101
      366104 359106 353107 345107 344112 347117 345120 338130
      340133 343134 346136 349135 355134 358135 358139 357142
      354146 351152 351157 353159 357163 363167 367173 366177
      364178 359179 353180 350183 347183 346175 344168 340164
      334161 327160 322158 318159 314165 314169 318175 321181
      325192 329197 332202 340212 349220 357229 362234 365239
      374246 380250 387250 393250 401252 411258 418259 424258
      436255 447254 453251 457247 460245 464241 464239 460237
      454236 450237 447235 446231 448228 458228 471233 479234
      483229 484224 487217 485209 477208 467209 455211 446213
      445209 449204 454201 465191 487179 497174 505168 510164
      515157 518151 520144 522136 524127 525119 526108 528099
      530093
 0.01 436216 435214 432214 429216 422219 410226 401223 395219
      389213 383208 375204 371203 367204 376216 378224 383231
      388236 397240 407242 416244 423243 425234 426228 427224
      433218 436216
 0.01 422766 421759 419752 416753 414755 409758 408761 407768
      409773 411777 416778 418775 417771 421768 422766
 0.01 381793 380789 378785 375781 372777 367780 366784 365789
      368791 372792 375796 378798 380796 381793
 0.01 324135 324132 324130 322129 321130 320131 318131 318132
      319134 319135 321135 323135 324135
 0.25 513292 512289 511286 510285 510283 510281 510278 511276
      511273 512271 513271 514269 515268 516268 517268 518267
      520267 522267
 0.25 461623 470630 474635 477640 480647 478655 475669 470683
      464693 456703 447712 437720 426727 416734 411739 408745
      402755 399761 394765 390765 387763 383759 380753 374752
      368754 363758 354766 353769 352775 352782 351790 352795
      354804 353808 352811 346815 343816 340815 338808 339800
      333789 326777 322774 317771 315768 314762 315755 318749
      321744 334724 341716 350706 360698 369689 391674 401667
      411659 429641 434637 438631
 0.25 513145 514137 513127 512113 509106 506104 495104 489102
      482101 472102 461104 456104 449103 429103 428111 429118
      431121 430125 428132 422142 418154 413157 408159 398157
      396155 394153 392146 389141 385139 379135 375134 372138
      371143 374148 380151 383155 382160 379166 378170 378173
      387180 392182 399185 401190 402197 401201 397204 395209
      398214 404216 410214 417207 426202 434196 437193 443192
      452191 462184 469177 484166 493161 503158 510153 513145
 0.25 417123 418120 417117 414114 412110 411105 408100 405100
      402103 399106 396110 396114 399116 402119 408120 412122
      416124 417123
 0.25 381806 382808 384809 385806 385805 383804 382804 381805
      381806
 0.25 372190 371188 369186 368185 366185 366184 364184 363184
      362184 361186 362188 363190 365191 367191 369192 370192
      372190
 0.25 372815 371813 368811 362814 359819 356826 354830 352837
      352842 356839 360834 363829 367824 370820 372815
 0.25 335169 334167 332166 330166 329165 327165 328168 330169
      332169 333169 335169
 0.50 504140 505130 505121 502119 499120 494121 487118 483115
      481114 477114 474118 474124 471130 466132 460133 455134
      452137 448141 443139 441137 440133 438130 436131 432135
      429140 426149 427153 428156 433167 444168 450170 450175
      448177 445184 449188 454186 458182 462178 463176 464171
      465167 468166 473164 478163 482160 491154 499148 502144
      504140
 0.50 469656 469652 468649 466648 464644 463640 462639 457639
      451642 447645 443648 440653 437658 433661 423666 412672
      404678 386691 373700 364708 354717 345726 340733 335742
      332750 331758 331769 336782 339789 343793 346792 348786
      351767 354762 357757 364750 373743 377740 384739 386743
      389749 393754 397751 403743 405736 408732 411728 416725
      424719 435713 443706 450698 457690 462680 466669 469662
      469656
 0.50 432186 431180 426176 421172 416172 410175 406177 402181
      405186 408191 413194 417196 420195 424191 428188 432186
 0.50 359831 363824 362821 361822 359826 356831 357832 359831
 1.00 345768 350758 361747 375735 384724 390716 396714 407713
      413713 418713 424709 428706 432702 435697 437693 442686
      447682 445679 440677 422677 416681 411685 399696 387706
      381710 373713 350734 345740 342747 338754 337759 338764
      339769 341775 343784 345768
 1.50 375726 375721 372720 368725 364730 360734 356737 353742
      354746 356747 361744 366739 369736 373731 375726