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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1913Z Mar 05, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 6/0000 UTC THRU MAR 9/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THIS
PERIOD..WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND A H5 RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.  AT THIS POINT..DON'T SEE EVEN ANY 0.25 INCH WATER
EQUIVALENTS IN THE LOWER 48 STATES..WITH ONLY SOME 0.10-0.25 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENTS LIKELY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN
NC..IN THE STILL WELL DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT.

DAYS 2/3...

***SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA***

THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AFTER THE WINTER STORM
DEPARTS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONE
OF THE MINOR EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE QPF OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BE NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA.  A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WORKED
BEST HERE.


***UPPER PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING NOTHING AT ALL. 
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF ANY UNFROZEN LAKE
WATERS.  THE ECMWF/GFS WAS THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR QPF.


***SOUTHERN TEXAS***

AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, SHOULD FOCUS ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE AREAS OF QPF OVER TEXAS AND TOWARDS MISSISSIPPI.  THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS, WHERE
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 3.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/BIASED CORRECTED MODEL WAS USED FOR THIS AREA.

TERRY/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 538213 540201 541195 539191 531177 524162 520156 517153
      514152 506150 501155 501160 502165 503169 505174 512188
      515194 516206 521223 522226 525229 529222 533223 535220
      538213
 0.01 547126 548120 547116 544106 535092 531086 531084 534080
      536074 533063 530056 528046 524037 520029 517022 513015
      505000 497987 486975 481974 477982 479991 483000 489015
      497030 504044 508053 510063 513070 515073 514077 514083
      515088 519096 527110 536124 542131 545129 547126
 0.01 522264 523256 521250 517245 514238 511233 508230 503233
      503235 504239 505245 507251 508258 509267 508271 505269
      502264 499262 497264 497270 498276 503281 504284 507285
      511284 518273 522264
 0.01 506808 505801 502795 498791 493789 488787 482787 477787
      473791 464799 461803 459810 457816 455824 454840 450854
      448859 448863 452865 456864 459865 461869 464871 466868
      466863 469858 474856 478856 480859 482865 486869 488871
      490871 495869 497870 499869 501864 501859 500856 496852
      490848 492833 495827 500821 503815 506808
 0.01 230975 232986 233991 236996 237999 236002 235008 232019
      230027 229033 232038 236042 242042 246038 251026 253016
      258007 255996 253989 255982 259970 263966 265962 268958
      272950 276939 288893 294868 303842 314827 318824 321819
      330811 339802 343797 348795 358788 362785 365781 371775
      378767 386758 393750 402739 406734 409729 419709 422704
      423699 426687 426682 425673 424669 422668 418664 412665
      407665 394673 386680 378688 372694 365703 362707 358709
      355710 349711 344714 334721 324729 321730 319732 312734
      303736 300739 298744 295748 293753 290758 288763 285768
      283773 280778 275781 265790 262794 262802 260807 260813
      262817 265819 273814 281806 284806 286807 289810 294815
      291818 286831 281842 277853 275857 273861 269870 259891
      256897 253904 248914 237932 233938 232942 231948
 0.25 392716 389712 384715 380718 377721 374720 354726 347733
      339740 333747 328756 317772 315777 315780 316783 322783
      327780 334774 342767 345764 348760 351755 356754 362753
      365755 370754 373749 384732 389724 391720 392716
 0.25 254968 255966 254964 252965 250965 250966 248968 247970
      247972 247974 248975 250975 251974 252973 252972 253970
      254970 254968
 0.50 347745 346744 344744 343745 341746 339748 339749 338751
      337753 337755 336756 337758 338758 339757 340756 341755
      342754 344753 344752 345750 346750 347747 347745 

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 537207 539203 539199 538192 537185 534179 530171 530165
      530157 529151 527145 522135 514118 506111 503115 502122
      502126 500126 497121 496115 488093 482072 477046 477041
      475035 473026 471024 468023 464025 462030 462038 461045
      462053 462062 464077 467090 472107 476114 478119 483129
      491146 496156 499161 501168 501172 501180 504189 510197
      518206 522213 527216 532216 536212 537207
 0.01 545028 545022 545016 545011 543008 538999 531989 521983
      515981 512978 509973 508969 510968 513966 515962 517958
      517949 512936 509932 507926 500916 502906 502898 500891
      497886 492879 489876 487870 482857 481847 479841 472832
      470827 468818 468807 470799 478775 480772 481766 480757
      479749 477744 477739 479731 479725 479717 482710 486704
      489699 491694 492688 493677 493664 493657 491653 489649
      483649 479652 475656 470658 465664 461669 457673 455678
      453690 450702 440720 437724 434731 430742 426747 422750
      420753 420759 422768 421773 420777 418778 410784 406787
      403792 404798 406803 405813 406820 408824 412828 417830
      421830 423832 427837 430843 430847 428850 423850 424857
      426860 430862 435862 441862 448860 449877 451884 451893
      454906 452909 450908 444909 440913 438917 438926 439932
      442945 445952 452962 458973 472994 481012 492030 496034
      499040 508045 514056 517063 522067 526069 531069 536063
      537058 536050 534043 532041 533037 541033 545028
 0.01 493998 492995 492990 490985 489983 487980 486978 484975
      482972 481977 482982 484984 484987 485990 487992 489995
      490997 492000 493998
 0.01 377712 374707 372703 367701 364701 358704 355707 349711
      345716 342719 339723 337729 333737 330747 320763 314770
      309775 301782 298783 296781 295777 293776 288778 285782
      281786 277788 271788 264789 258790 253792 248795 246801
      241809 241816 242819 245820 248817 249816 251816 257820
      262822 267821 273814 278811 284811 292812 298812 302811
      307809 311805 320791 332774 337767 343761 369735 372729
      375722 377712
 0.01 350088 349084 347081 341078 334079 332081 331086 335091
      337100 340112 343113 343107 342101 343098 348092 350088
 0.01 319960 319954 318948 316941 312938 307936 295938 294949
      290951 286952 283956 282960 281964 281971 281976 282981
      282987 279992 276999 272008 275015 280016 284014 287012
      289008 293000 296991 300982 305977 309973 313971 317967
      319960
 0.01 288039 289029 287024 284022 281021 277022 276025 273031
      269038 267044 263049 257059 253065 251073 254079 255082
      259083 266083 270079 278067 283053 288039 288039
 0.01 262013 263992 263972 261955 259951 257948 252945 246947
      244951 243956 242964 242974 243982 243992 240007 238017
      238023 239027 242030 245031 250030 256027 259021 262013
 0.25 533200 532198 531197 530197 530199 530200 532201 533200
 0.25 283798 281797 279796 277797 275798 274799 276801 277801
      278801 279800 281800 283799 283798
 0.25 267802 266801 265801 263802 261803 259804 258805 256806
      255808 254808 254810 256812 258812 260812 262811 264810
      264809 265806 267804 267802 

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 531002 530996 528988 526981 525978 523970 525963 526958
      527951 527942 525935 522925 518909 517903 513897 508887
      508880 506872 502860 499855 496852 486854 483854 481851
      478845 474835 470828 469821 467815 466806 465799 463796
      463792 461759 461752 460745 460735 461728 462722 464717
      471708 477698 479692 480686 478682 474680 464683 458689
      451697 445705 439716 433735 431738 429740 425743 421747
      419751 414759 412765 410770 407775 403780 396787 387794
      385798 381802 379806 383814 397812 404833 413838 414850
      415859 416875 417884 418892 419897 418901 418919 419924
      420928 423931 430937 432941 433947 434955 436962 439974
      443985 446990 448996 451005 453011 456016 462026 466029
      467031 471031 475030 479027 483022 485017 485009 484002
      481991 471967 467959 468954 471949 475946 478950 484951
      488953 494964 496968 497973 500978 503985 510996 515002
      521011 524014 528011 531002
 0.01 453884 451876 449870 447865 446862 446853 449850 451847
      451841 449838 444822 442817 440815 437814 433814 429815
      428817 425820 424824 425835 427843 427848 429852 431859
      435866 437873 440880 443887 445890 449891 452888 453884
 0.01 402062 402058 401055 395053 390052 384053 379053 374057
      373062 374066 376069 382071 389072 394070 400067 402062
 0.01 373952 374939 374927 373914 371910 371904 368894 364887
      361883 358881 356879 352879 345875 339871 335863 331861
      328861 324863 322868 319875 305884 294893 287908 283917
      279923 274929 270935 265942 259947 251960 242962 239965
      239970 239978 243981 244986 243991 242995 242001 243005
      241008 238011 236013 235018 237026 240033 251042 253046
      253048 250051 248057 244061 243066 247071 256075 266077
      271077 274076 277075 280072 282063 286055 289047 292044
      296046 301053 307058 314063 321066 331067 337063 338058
      338053 332047 318038 312034 309026 309020 314018 320015
      326010 329006 330003 330997 328994 332986 335975 337967
      338961 339956 343949 346946 350945 352943 355944 358945
      361950 360956 358964 359976 362978 366976 368971 370964
      373952
 0.01 295803 294797 290795 280792 275785 271785 269782 268779
      269768 270756 269746 267740 264738 261737 257740 255744
      253749 250757 248768 247777 248790 249803 251808 254812
      257814 259820 261824 265826 270824 272820 274812 276809
      278809 283810 289808 293806 295803
 0.25 330937 329928 329917 325911 319908 311907 305909 300914
      296920 288931 279943 276948 273955 270963 267970 268976
      271982 270992 267000 264006 259010 259016 261018 265022
      265024 268027 272027 274030 281033 287031 293027 296019
      298011 301004 301994 303986 310971 317959 326947 329942
      330937
 0.25 274799 272797 268794 265792 262789 258792 257796 256801
      259804 263806 267807 269804 272801 274799
 0.50 314947 314943 313940 310934 305930 303928 300928 295932
      291937 283947 280952 278960 277967 279974 281979 284987
      286988 288985 292981 299970 307959 310954 314948 314947