Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1946Z May 10, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 11 2014 - 00Z WED MAY 14 2014

...DAYS 1 TO 3...

...ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

A 700 MB LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN EASTERN UT THIS EVENING AND
DRIFTS INTO WESTERN CO SUNDAY TO THE NM BORDER BY 12 MON...WHEN IT
SHEARS INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
HEAVY SNOWS DEVELOP IN THE RANGES OF SOUTHEAST WY AND CO AS WELL
DEFINED COUPLETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE DEVELOP AND
PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH SNOW IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
STARTING IN THE UT WASATCH/UINTAS TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING IN
FAVORED TERRAIN OF WY/CO THROUGH SUN.
THE HIGHEST RISKS ARE IN THE FRONT RANGE OF NORTHERN CO AND
CHEYENNE/LARAMIE RANGES IN ADJACENT WY...WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
LIKELY...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVED 3 FEET.

TEMPERATURES INITIALLY START OFF TOO WARM FOR SNOW ON THE PLAINS
BUT COOL WITH TIME...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW STARTING IN THE
FOOTHILLS FOLLOWED BY THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO AND EVENTUALLY
ADJACENT NE. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE DENVER METRO
AREA SUN AFTERNOON...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FOLLOWS SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A SECONDARY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AS LOW LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW PROVIDES LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE SNOW THREAT DRIFTS SOUTH DOWN THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTIO MNTNS MON AND ENDS LATER MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS EAST ON TO THE PLAINS AND DRYING ALOFT OCCURS OVER CO AND
THEN NM.

THE NAM AND SREF MEAN COOL THE PLAINS OFF FASTER THAN THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN...RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.  MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE MAJORITY CLUSTER
OF SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS WEIGHTING TO THE NAM GIVEN THE NAM
HISTORY OF COOLING THE COLUMN TOO FAST DURING THESE PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITION ZONES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR
ALL 3 DAYS.

PETERSEN