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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2033Z Apr 14, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
433 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

VALID 00Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 00Z FRI APR 18 2014

...OH VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OH VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE NEW LOW SHOULD
ACCELERATE THROUGH CENTRAL NY ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACH OF ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AND EVENTUALLY
ENDING.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
PRECIP TYPE TO THE OTHER SHOULD BE QUICK.  THERE MAY WELL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING PCPN GIVEN HOW
SHALLOW THE COLD AIR WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

BEST RISK OF SNOW WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
PA/NY/VT/NH/ME...SUPPORTING LOW PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

...ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
ASCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENTLY NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE REGION.  A
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE CURVING NORTHEAST AS IT FILLS. 


STILL GENERALLY PREFERRED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE INTERMEDIATE
ECMWF/UKMET FOR DETERMINING THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AND
P-TYPES VERSUS THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS WHICH HAD LESS MODEL
SUPPORT. 

THE RESULT IS LOW PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR
THE TETONS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH PERHAPS A FOOT OR MORE FOR
THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES IN COLORADO AND JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

BANN