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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0901Z Nov 18, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 18 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 21 2014

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...
QUITE AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS INVOF THE GREAT LAKES... AS HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS/TUES... AS THE COLDEST CORE
OF AN ANOMALOUS AIR MASS CROSSES THE WARM LAKES. THE LARGE TEMP
DIFFERENCE WITH RATHER UNIFORM WRLY TO WSWRLY NON-SHEAR FLOW
SHOULD BE IDEAL... ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
THIS IS WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LONG FETCH BANDS OF SNOW TO
IMPACT SWRN NY AND UPSTATE NY... WHERE PROBS OF GREATER THAN A
FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS
WITHIN THE MESOSCALE BANDS.
 
THE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE RELAXED AND TRANSITION TOWARD
LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON WED AND THURS. AS THE FRIGID AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUES INTO WED... SOME
SLIGHT SHORT WAVE UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING NRN STREAM POLAR SHORT WAVE. A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LAKES ON WED BEFORE PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM INTO ERN CANADA ON THURS. A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP HEAVY SNOW PROBS TO A MIN BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW PROBS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT AREAS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR-OUT THROUGH THE WEST COAST
STATES ON WED BEFORE A MORE PROMINENT PAC SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO
OR/CA BEFORE PROCEEDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODEST PAC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REACH THE REGION BOTH DAYS BUT THE LACK OF COLD AIR
AND RELATIVELY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD SPELL ONLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WRN STATES. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ON MASS FIELDS CONCERNING EACH SYSTEM
ALONG WITH ONLY HEAVY SNOW PROBS ON THURS. 


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER