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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2029Z May 11, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 00Z MON MAY 12 2014 - 00Z THU MAY 15 2014

...DAYS 1 TO 3...

...ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...HEAVY SNOWS CONTINUING FOR THE CO ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MONDAY...

12Z GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW
CROSSING THE ROCKIES...AS THE CONSENSUS TAKES A 700 MB LOW SLOWLY
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CO TO THE NM BORDER ON MONDAY.

SNOW ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN CO SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE RANGES OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND DEFINED 700 MB
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FAVORS CONTINUING SCENT. 
COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WITH 700 MB
FORECASTS FROM THE GFS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE IN
NORTHWEST NE/NORTHEAST CO.  YESTERDAYS SREF AND NAM WERE TOO COLD
AND INDICATED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WHERE RAIN
PREDOMINATES.  THE 12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF MEAN CONTINUE TO BE COLDER
THAN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
PREFERRED FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION ZONE
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST NE.  MID-UPPER DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND LOSS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD REDUCE PRECIP
COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST NE AND THEN NORTHEAST CO ON
MON.

THE LONGER DURATION SNOWS OCCURS IN THE RANGES OF CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWEST CO...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1-2
FOOT RANGE.
SNOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD DOWN SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
ON MONDAY ACROSS INTO NM AS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION APPROACHES. 
SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WINDS DOWN TUE AS THE 700 MB LOW AND
STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS IN TANDEM.   

THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT DAY 3.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR
ALL 3 DAYS.

PETERSEN