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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2048Z Oct 28, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 00Z WED OCT 29 2014 - 00Z SAT NOV 01 2014


DAYS 1 AND 2...


THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.


DAY 3...

UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE
REPLACED OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A COLD ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. A SHARP
THERMAL ZONE SLICING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT THE
MOMENT WILL REACH OR PUSH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY THURS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY A DYNAMIC NRN POLAR SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND A CRASH OF UPPER HEIGHTS. THIS POTENT VORT WILL DIVE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER/WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THURS/EARLY FRI BEFORE PROCEEDING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY FRI
NIGHT. THE DRAMATIC COLD ADVECTION WILL PLUMMET SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE FCST PERIOD AND THE MOST OPPORTUNE PERIOD FOR HEAVY
SNOW APPEARS TO BE ON DAY 3 FROM THURS NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM LAKES FOR QUITE A
CONTRAST IN TEMPS AND RESULT IN RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI. A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR
QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEING AN ISSUE.   

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER