EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...VALID 03Z SAT MAY 18 2013 - 00Z SUN MAY 19 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...ND/SD...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS THE ONGOING CNVCTV SYSTEM INVOF S
CNTRL SD TRAVERSING/DVLPNG TO THE NORTHEAST..BUT AT A SUFFICIENT
SPEED TO INHIBIT EXCESSIVE RNFL TOTALS.  AMTS OF 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES IN 3 HOURS STILL APPEAR PSBL GIVEN THE MSTR AVBLTY AND
FORCING FM MCV DVLPMNT NOW OBSERVED IN STLT AND RADAR IMAGERY. 
MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER COULD BE FOR LATER SAT AFTN AND EVNG WHEN HGT
FALLS ASOCTD WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF EMERGES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REIGNITING CNVCTN.  MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
STILL VARYING SGFNTLY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT..AND AMTS THAT WOULD BE
PRODUCED BY SUCH ACTVTY.  FOR THAT REASON..FEEL CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HI ENUF AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLGT RISK AREA. 
HOWEVER..LOWERING OF FFG NUMBERS BY ONGOING SHWRS AND INFO FM
TNGTS MODEL RUNS COULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTLOOKED AREA AT
A LATER TIME.

KORTY