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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0713Z Oct 23, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...VALID 06Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 S RKD 20 NW PVC 10 N TAN OWD PSM 10 WSW LEW 30 ENE BML
60 SE CWIG 10 ENE CAR 15 NNE CYCX 10 E CWPE 40 SW CWVU 60 S RKD.




...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY WILL BE
PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE
DURING THE PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE OCCLUSION
PROCESS...THE INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NRN NEW ENGLAND... WHILE THE TROWAL AND ASSOCIATED PW AXIS
(1.00-1.25 INCHES...OR ABOUT 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL) WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE LATEST SREF/GEFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...COINCIDING WITH EASTERLY 860
MB INFLOW OF 40-50 KTS. ALL THE WHILE...A ROBUST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG/EAST OF THE AXIS. WPC QPF FAVORED A BLENDED APPROACH AMONG
THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS...GIVEN BETTER CLUSTERING OF THE
MODELS MASS FIELDS...WITH MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN
1-2+ INCHES ACROSS ME...RI...AND EASTERN MA/NH...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ME. PER SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 4KM WRF-ARW...NSSL WRF...AND
NAM CONEST...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN ME...
WHERE IN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THE RELATIVELY LOW 6 HOURLY FFG
(1.5-2.0 INCHES) MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY