Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1407Z Aug 31, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 31 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW SZL 10 NNE TOP BIE 25 WSW SLB 20 E RGK 30 W IOW EOK
40 SSE IRK 25 NNW SZL.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW OQT 20 NE CSV CSV 20 SW CSV 40 WSW CSV 45 SE MQY
40 SSE MQY 30 NNE MDQ 15 NNW MDQ 30 NW MDQ 45 NW MDQ 55 NNE MSL
45 SW BNA 30 SSW BNA 25 SW MQY 15 SW MQY 15 SW BNA 10 WNW BNA
15 NNW BNA 15 NNE BNA 15 NE MQY 30 ENE MQY 40 WNW CSV 45 SSE GLW
30 SSE GLW 20 SE GLW 20 E GLW 35 NW EKQ 25 NNW SME 25 N SME
15 N LOZ 10 SE LOZ 30 W 1A6 30 NW OQT 25 WNW OQT.


1400 UTC UPDATE

MID TEXAS GULF COAST

CONVECTION HAS ENHANCED THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW
MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE LOWER TO MID
TX COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.  CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS CENTER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PROGRESSED INLAND
AND PRODUCED ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR
TWO.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING INTO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON--WITH ISOLATED SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2-4"+ AFFECTING MID TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

CENTRAL TN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY

A SLIGHT RISK WAS ADDED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KY WHERE FFG VALUES HAVE LOWERED FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2.00 TO 2.25"+ EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.  THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET INTO THIS AFTERNOON---SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WITH THE LOWERED
FFG...ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
PRODUCING SHORT TERM 1"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KY AND TN.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

ORAVEC



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY

A COLD FRONT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER AIR
OBS SUPPORTED THE MODEL FORECAST IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED REGION OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THE
RESULTING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING LLJ.  THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS
VARIED.  ONE PCPN MAX ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY SHOULD BE AIDED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...WHICH CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH IN IA AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES SHOULD BLOSSOM IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ.  THE WPC PCPN MAX IN THE SOUTHERN AREA WAS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES IN AN AREA WHICH RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECENTLY.  AS A RESULT WE PLACED A SLIGHT RISK
ALONG THE AXIS WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO ALIGN WITH WHERE THE MODELS
EXPECT THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MUCH WETTER
SOLNS SHOWN BY THE ARW AND NMMB MAY PROVE CORRECT.

BANN