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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1857Z Sep 30, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE SEP 30 2014 - 00Z THU OCT 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N DMO 10 ESE OJC 20 S FOE 30 N EMP 10 WSW MHK 35 N MHK RDK
20 N CIN 25 SSE MCW 10 E AMW 15 SSE DSM 10 SSE CNC 25 NW IRK
40 SE IRK 20 N DMO.


NORTHEAST KS---NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IA

CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
REMAIN 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN THIS PERIOD. 
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI
RES ARW---NMM AND NSSL WRF WERE FAVORED WHICH SHOWED MAX
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS REGIONS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---WITH LESSER TOTALS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.  THE HI RES RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A MORE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED AXIS ALONG THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.  
ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA---THE PERSISTENT
INFLOW INTO THIS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SOME
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
LOWER.

EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST

AN AXIS OF 1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.  WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO---CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ENHANCING CONVECTION MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA---WILL SUPPORT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. 
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGIONS BOTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2-4"+
POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION.  THIS MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS.

ORAVEC