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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0652Z Aug 28, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...VALID 06Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE GYL 20 SSW HYR EGV 25 SSW PDC 10 NW AWG 25 WNW CDJ
20 N LWC 30 SSW MHK 55 NNE GCK 45 NNW GLD 10 N OGA 30 ENE TIF
20 NNE YKN 20 SSE GYL.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W CNC FNB 25 ESE JYR 25 ESE OFK 25 ESE LRJ 15 E AXA
15 NNE MIW 20 W CNC.


ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THU MORNING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY REACH PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW.  LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
INITIALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE
AREAS---AND ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS---WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS FRONT.  HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING SINCE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE...BEST LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE LOCATED IN A REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE
LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.  THE SLIGHT AND MDT RISK AREAS MAINTAINED A
FAIR DEGREE OF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING ANY ACTIVE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS (MPD) WITHIN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LINK FROM THE WPC HOME PAGE ABOVE THE TOP NEWS
OF THE DAY... OR GO DIRECTLY TO THE MPD PAGE:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/METWATCH/METWATCH_MPD.PHP.

BANN