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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0558Z Mar 31, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...VALID 06Z TUE MAR 31 2015 - 12Z WED APR 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

...DISCUSSION...

THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY THERE ARE CORRIDORS IN WHICH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...STRETCHING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH...AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREACH...AND
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SWIFT MOVEMENT
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WITH LITTLE FOCUS PROVIDED FOR REPEAT
CONVECTION IN ANY ORGANIZED WAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
MARGINAL...BETWEEN 1.00-1.25 INCHES IN GENERAL.

AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ZONE FROM OK TO GA WHERE SUPERCELLULAR MOTION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SLOWER STORM MOTION AT TIMES...AND WHERE OUTFLOWS MAY ACT TO FOCUS
REPEAT CONVECTION OVER A FEW HOURS. BUT THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS
WERE NOT YET EVIDENT...AND EVEN IF THESE THINGS DO OCCUR...FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MET EXCEPT ON A VERY ISOLATED
BASIS.

BURKE