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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1852Z Mar 25, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...VALID 18Z WED MAR 25 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE CNU 15 WNW AIZ 25 E ALN 10 SE BMG 30 SE BAK 30 NNE LOU
10 S SDF 40 NNW DYR 10 NW RUE 25 W RKR 15 ESE PVJ 10 SSW CQB
35 ESE CNU.


NORTHEAST ARKANSAS---FAR SOUTHEAST KS---SOUTHERN
MISSOURI---NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK AREA WAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD---ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 70 NM---FROM IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS IS TO REFLECT THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL BECOME FOCUS
FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
 THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW---ALREADY STRENGTHENING INTO THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON---WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE
BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD AS VERY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ENHANCE UVVS ALONG THE FRONT IN AN AXIS OF 1-1.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PW VALUES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EASTERN OK---NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN MO---INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AREA.  THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY WHEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.   IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT---THE
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING---LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX AREA.  FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST---HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 1200 UTC THU OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN.  STILL---WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE WAVE---MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS OF .25-.50"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA---BUT WITH
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES. 

ORAVEC