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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0646Z Apr 24, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...VALID 06Z FRI APR 24 2015 - 12Z SAT APR 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW CCO 40 ESE NMM 20 NW POE 45 NNW ALI 45 WSW COT 30 ESE DLF
25 NE JCT 20 NNE GVT 20 ESE UTA 15 NW 4A9 30 NW CCO.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. LATEST
SATELLITE WV LOOPS QUITE CLEARLY SHOW A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM SOUTH OF BAJA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PW VALUES IN THIS INFLOW AXIS WILL BE RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 2.00+ INCHES TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER MS VLY TONIGHT. PW
ANOMALIES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG THE AXIS OF MOST ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS 850 MB SOUTHERLY INFLOW (~40 KTS) LEADS TO MOISTURE
FLUX ANOMALIES BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE
THERE ARE THE USUAL SHORTER TIME FRAME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
LATEST MODEL SUITE...THERE REMAINS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...AS THE THERMODYNAMICAL
PROFILE IS ENHANCED BY THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT FRI INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MUCAPES CLIMBING TO
2000+ J/KG. MEANWHILE...FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL BOOST TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND (THUS) WEAKENING DOWNWIND (INCREASED UPWIND) PROPAGATION.
IN AREAS OF TRAINING...ISOLATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+
INCHES WITH STORM TOTALS OF 3-6"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HURLEY