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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1513Z Oct 24, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1113 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...VALID 15Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 12Z SAT OCT 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...SOUTH FLORIDA...

THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL.
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA
JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING
WSW INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS MOVING ALONG THE BNDRY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL AND THE UPPER FL KEYS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND PERSIST HERE...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. GPS-DERIVED PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS 2.25
INCHES INVOLVING KMIA AND KEYW. THIS DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
FAVOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WHICH COULD BE UP TO 3
INCHES/HR WITHIN ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR BAND OF CONVECTION.
WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE
LOCALIZED...THERE MAY BE SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE 06Z NAM-CONEST AND 00Z WRF-ARW BOTH SUGGESTED A SIGNAL
FOR INTENSE RAINFALL LOCALLY WITH THE THE CURRENT SET-UP...AND SO
THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE
LATEST MODELS THOUGH SUPPORT MUCH OF THE FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND
GRADUALLY OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ORRISON