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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1354Z Mar 26, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
954 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...VALID 15Z THU MAR 26 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



1400 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS CONCERN REGION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.

ORAVEC



...SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
WHAT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS FLASH FLOODING TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. SHARPLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY NORTHEAST
RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
MELT LIQUID DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. AT THE SAME
TIME...ARRIVAL OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ROOTED ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS
00Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO OCCUR
OVER RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN CT...AND EASTERN MA. AVERAGE AREAL QPF
IN THIS SMALL REGION IS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF
IT LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MELT...COLD GROUND...AND
ABSENCE OF THE DECIDUOUS CANOPY...THIS RAINFALL MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO CAUSE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF BOSTON.

BURKE