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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1411Z Nov 22, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...VALID 15Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.  A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THIS AND VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS FROM VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX---EASTWARD
INTO EAST TX---EASTERN OK AND MOST OF LOUISIANA.  THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE.  THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS WITH
HOW QUICKLY THE ORGANIZED RAINFALL MOVES DOWNSTREAM.  THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE UKMET---GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF IS FAVORED
OVER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM AND HI RES ARW/NMMB.   THE HI RES ARW
AND NMMB OFTEN ARE SLOW WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
DOWNSTREAM---WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/UKMET TYPE SOLUTION OFTEN
PERFORMING BETTER.  THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FROM BEING VERY
HEAVY AND LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH FFG VALUES.

TERRY