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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1408Z Apr 20, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1008 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...VALID 15Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...NORTH TEXAS...

THE PATTERN AND FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH 50S TO NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
LESS THAN VIGOROUS MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...BUT THE ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND CONVECTION LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS LAYING OUT
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WARMER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...AND INTERCEPTING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE 00Z WRF-ARW FORECAST. IF THIS
OCCURS...A SMALL AREA OF NORTH TEXAS COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
PERHAPS CAUSING LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE EVENT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE... HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING THROUGH TIME AND
CORFIDI VECTORS PREDICTING AT LEAST 10-15 KNOTS OF FORWARD
PROGRESSION.

BURKE