Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0655Z Nov 22, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...VALID 06Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHERN PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO 1
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THIS
AND VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX---EASTWARD INTO EAST TX---EASTERN OK AND
MOST OF LOUISIANA.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE.  THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MOVES DOWNSTREAM.  THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION OF THE UKMET---GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF IS FAVORED OVER THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM AND HI RES ARW/NMM.   THE HI RES ARW AND NMM
OFTEN ARE SLOW WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING DOWNSTREAM---WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/UKMET TYPE SOLUTION OFTEN PERFORMING
BETTER.  THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM BEING VERY HEAVY AND
LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FFG
VALUES.

ORAVEC