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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0101Z Sep 17, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...VALID 03Z WED SEP 17 2014 - 00Z THU SEP 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE ABQ 10 ENE 4CR 15 NNW ATS 20 SSW CNM 35 SE GDP 50 NW MRF
80 WNW MRF 35 SSE MMCS 50 S DMN 70 S DMN 75 ESE DUG 50 WSW OLS
80 SE YUM 30 SW NYL 40 NW BLH 35 S HND 25 ESE LSV 50 NNE IGM
45 SSE SGU 55 NW GCN 20 WNW GCN 45 NNW GCN 45 WSW PGA 25 ENE 40G
35 NNW SOW 20 N SOW 35 E SJN 10 SSW GNT 10 SE ABQ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW ELP 10 SSE SVC 75 SSW DMN 50 ESE DUG 20 SSW DUG
40 WSW OLS 70 WSW TUS 10 SE DMA 35 E CGZ 30 W SAD 45 NNW SAD
25 ESE SOW 75 ESE SJN 35 NNE TCS 40 NNW HMN 15 E ALM 45 ENE ELP
20 NNW ELP.



SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS)
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ODILE. PW ANOMALIES OF 2-4.5
SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN -- NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER --
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
CA, FAR SOUTHERN NV, MUCH OF AZ, SOUTHERN NM, AND WESTERNMOST TX. 
THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN THE 00Z AND 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES (USING THE 30%+ CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE) THAT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE,
WHERE 25+ KTS OF 700 HPA INFLOW (PER RECENT GUIDANCE) COULD
ORGANIZE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  THE EXPECTED
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTION WHICH BUILDS
WITHIN TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
MIGRATE OUTWARD TOWARDS VALLEY/DESERT FLOORS TODAY.  DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD
CONFINE THE THREAT ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
OF AZ, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE DESERT HIGH AND DRY.

THE BIG QUESTION -- OTHER THAN TRACK -- CONCERNS WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL MAXIMIZE EACH DAY.  SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST PLACES JUST
OUTSIDE ODILE'S OUTFLOW JET/CLOUD SHIELD NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE MOGOLLON RIM COULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE AND
THAT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN NM COULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM OR MORE OF A LONGER DURATION FLOOD CONCERN RATHER THAN
A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW.  CORE RAINFALL FROM SOME
PORTION OF ODILE'S CIRCULATION (MOST LIKELY AT 700 HPA AND 500
HPA) IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER LATE TOMORROW.  AFTER
BRIEFINGS FROM SAB/NESDIS AND COORDINATION WITH OUR METWATCH DESK
AS WELL AS WESTERN REGION OFFICES (INCLUDING EPZ AND TWC), THE
SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 15Z
ISSUANCE, WHILE THE MODERATE RISK WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BURN
SCARS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE HERE
WHERE A HEAVY RAIN BAND AND/OR CONVECTIVE CELLS MERGE AND/OR
TRAIN, WHICH WOULD APPROACH ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE REGION.  THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS COULD RIVAL THAT OF MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8 WHICH OCCURRED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF NORBERT, THOUGH OCCUR OVER A LONGER TIME
INTERVAL.

ROTH/JAMES