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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0206Z Oct 02, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1006 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

...VALID 03Z THU OCT 02 2014 - 00Z FRI OCT 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE FSM 10 W TUL 10 NE MHK 25 WSW LWD 15 SW MPZ 15 NW BMI
10 SSE CPS 40 WNW UNO 10 NNE FSM.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 S IXD 20 N SZL 35 NE COU 20 NE VIH 10 NNE SGF 25 W JLN
15 NE PPF 40 S IXD.


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY...

THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS PERIOD FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME
FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IN A REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS AND IN AN
AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD---CONVECTION LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE TRAINING IN A
WEST TO EAST DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
THE TWO WILL BRING A INCREASING CHANCE OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGH RES
ARW...NMM...NSSL WRFS AND NAM CONEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.  THE ARW---NMM AND NAM CONEST ALL SHOW MAX AMOUNTS IN
THE 5-10" RANGE---AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE QPF AXES.  WHILE THE ABOVE HI RES GUIDANCE IS VERY
SIMILAR---THERE IS ALSO SIGNAL IN THE REMAINING LARGER SCALE
GUIDANCE FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS---ALBEIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  OVERALL HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE HI RES GUIDANCE WITH
THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD AXIS---ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT HEAVY
TOTALS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

ORAVEC