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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0202Z Nov 23, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...VALID 03Z SUN NOV 23 2014 - 00Z MON NOV 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...CENTRAL/EASTERN TX ALONG THE GULF COAST...

A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS ASSURED THIS
PERIOD FROM EASTERN TX EASTWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
STATES...AHEAD OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF LIFTING FROM
VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF IT. 
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE BIG
BEND SYSTEM EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THEN TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET DIGS THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WILL
RAISE PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN..AND
THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THESE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PRETTY MUCH
ALL OF THE GULF COAST STATES.  AS OPPOSED TO THE LAST RUNS..THE
NEW HIRES QPFS HAVE SPED UP THRU THE GULF COAST SO THAT THEY ARE
NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG LIFT AND HIGH MOISTURE...BUT WILL ALSO BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
WHAT ARE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE AREA.  STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH RAINS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND AT LEAST SOME 2-3+ INCH TOTALS FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST WHERE 50+KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET
ARE FORECAST.

TERRY