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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0645Z Apr 19, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...VALID 06Z SUN APR 19 2015 - 12Z MON APR 20 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE 1A5 10 NNW MKJ 10 ESE LWB 25 NW SHD 15 W JYO 10 ENE JYO
GAI CGS DCA NYG 25 S LKU 20 N TDF BUY VUJ UZA 15 ESE GYH
20 WSW AND 15 NE GVL 30 S RHP 20 NNE 1A5.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY LATER SUN.  A SIGNIFICANT RESURGENCE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS OWING TO AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION/LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY...COUPLED WITH THE LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE
DYNAMICS AND THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF A FRONT..SHOULD HELP FOCUS
HEAVIER RAINS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
AID IN RAINFALL PRODUCTION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS LED BY THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIRES MODELS ALL FOCUS
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD FROM NORTHEASTERN GA UP THRU
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND INTO WESTERN VA..WITH AN AXIS OF 2-4
INCH TOTALS EXPECTED AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  THUS..HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TERRY