Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1044Z Jul 31, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 N HOB 10 ESE INK 15 ENE E38 60 WNW MRF MMCS 45 SSW LRU
50 SSW DMN 75 SSW DMN 35 SE DUG 30 E DUG 55 NE SAD 25 S 4SL
30 ESE E33 30 NNE VTP 15 W TAD 45 SE RTN 15 W TCC 50 N HOB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E PVJ 20 NNE MLC 25 NNW HOT LLQ 25 W MLU 35 S SHV 20 E TRL
15 NNW DTO 35 WNW GLE 10 E PVJ.


ARKLATEX REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODEST LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW DRAWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~2
INCHES INTO AND IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV/SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THRU PARTS OF ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN
LA TODAY AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY HELPS SHIFT 850 HPA INFLOW
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.  BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS BELIEVE 00Z NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS
ACRS THE ARKLATEX REGION, WHILE 00Z HI RES RUNS SEEM TO BE
CAPTURING THE MORE SRN TRENDS OF THE STGR CONVECTION ACRS NRN TX
THIS MRNG.  THIS MAY YIELD A NEW MCV THAT WOULD LIKELY TRACK EWD
NEAR THE NRN LA/SRN AR BORDER TODAY GENERATING STEADIER ORGANIZED
RAIN/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MCV WITH TRAILING
CONVECTION...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN
TX.  KEPT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE BASED ON LARGE MODEL
SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME 1-2" AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES WHERE
CELL REGENERATION MAY OCCUR, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS.


SOUTHERN CO THROUGH NM INTO WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PERSIST ACRS THIS REGION
WITH POTNL FOR STG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH TODAY, ESPECIALLY THRU THE FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SRN
CO INTO NM/EXTREME WESTERN TX..UNDER A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES COMBINED WITH 850 HPA
INFLOW OF 25-30 KTS THIS MORNING AND CAPES ~1000 J/KG HAS BEEN
GENERATING TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, WHICH SHOULD
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TX UNTIL ~14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING DUE
TO DECREASING INFLOW AND CAPE.  LATER ON, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DUE TO INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY TODAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD AREAS OF
TALL SKINNY CAPES WITH NO LOW-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS ALONG WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW OF LESS THEN 10 KTS ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NM/EXTREME WESTERN TX SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW
ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO SOME RECENT RAINS WHICH GIVEN THE ABOVE
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.

SULLIVAN/ROTH