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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1302Z Oct 23, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...VALID 15Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SW CXGM 40 S RKD 15 E MQE 10 W SFZ 15 ENE BDL 20 WNW ORE
25 WNW CON IZG 30 NW WVL 20 NW MLT 25 WNW CWZF 15 NNE CWPE
35 SW CXGM.


...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING
WILL BE PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF ME
DURING THE PERIOD. THE LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE INTERACTING WITH
PERSISTENT AND STRONG ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA SHOWS A LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC FETCH OF 40 TO 50
KTS...WHICH IS DRIVING MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF UP TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL INTO PORTIONS OF MA/NH AND ME. BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITHIN THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE PLUME AND COUPLED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...THESE RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND ACROSS ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS DENOTED IN MPD #429...THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESP NORTHEAST MA...SOUTHEAST NH AND SOUTHERN
ME...BUT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY PIVOT NORTH AND
FOCUS MORE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ME BY LATER TODAY AND AT LEAST
SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED HERE. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ATLANTIC FETCH...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS FOR
THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON